As Leicester set out today on their quest for an unprecedented fifth straight Zurich Premiership title, the rest can at least dream. In no particular order, here's why the Tigers should be toppled this year: ageing generals, early-season injuries, international calls, the sheer pressure of defending their crown yet again, and a potential loss of hunger. Sounds promising, until you recall people were muttering similar things 12 months ago.
And therein lies the key to the 2002-03 season: the Premiership revolves less around what Leicester are thinking than the mentality of their rivals. There are some good squads out there but how many, deep down, believe they can match Leicester's consistency? The new "grand final" format may be a potential Tiger trap, but does anyone have the nerve to spring it?
According to those paid to rise to such challenges, the task is no easier. True, Gloucester visit Welford Road during the November international period and do not entertain Leicester at Kingsholm until May, but even defeating the Tigers home and away is no guarantee of overall success. "The more important question is not how you beat Leicester in a one-off but whether anybody is going to achieve their consistency over 22 games," insists Harlequins' chief executive Mark Evans, one of the few to mastermind a win over the champions last season, albeit in the Powergen Cup.
"Their success has been based on a marvellous home record. They always drop two or three games away but they never lose at home. If someone is to challenge Leicester they've got to make their own home ground virtually impregnable. When you look around, the two sides who might fancy their chances of doing that are Gloucester and, possibly, Northampton."
Evans's thesis is that even good sides like, say, Sale who have smaller home grounds, are disconcerted by the gladiatorial atmosphere of Welford Road. "For Leicester to be beaten it's going to need them to drop a couple of home games and I think that's unlikely." Unless, of course, sides absorb the common denominator on the rare occasions the Tigers do lose - think Llanelli and Wasps away last season - which is fired-up opponents oblivious to such peripheral factors.
"I don't think there's any secret," says Evans. "Everybody knows that to beat Leicester you've got to be very confrontational and take them on up front. Their defence is very good so you've also got to kick your goals and take your opportunities. If you create three chances and only score once, you're probably going to lose."
The bad news is that those who know the Tigers best have sensed no slackening in resolve. "Not at all," sighs their former centre Will Greenwood. "The rumours are they've even been asking for more contact in training. When they do their defence sessions on a Wednesday I know they find it tougher than the actual games.
"They recruit well and they're very consistent. Week in, week out, no matter who or where they're playing, they perform. That level of mental discipline doesn't occur overnight and Leicester have had it running through the core of the club for donkey's years. I haven't been down to the bookies yet but you'd find it hard to bet against the four-times champions. It doesn't happen by accident."
You would hardly expect them to say anything else but within the Leicester dressing-room there is no shortage of fresh incentive. Just three players - Ben Kay, Lewis Moody and Adam Baldin - toured with England in Argentina this summer and Austin Healey, for one, believes the Tigers are "better prepared than we have been for four seasons".
Martin Johnson will reinforce the same theme before today's game at Leeds, where a weakened Tigers' side were turned over last year. "The hunger's still there. Are we going to go out and be happy to lose games? No. Are we going to go out and be happy to play poorly? No."
The team manager Dean Richards believes defeat hurts his team more the others. "When we do lose the boys beat themselves up inside to the point they really want to put it right the next week." He needs his younger players to develop the same qualities but when Leicester rebuild no one ever seems to notice the scaffolding.
Down in Gloucester, England's estimable prop Phil Vickery remains full of respect. "It's worrying when they start saying we're going to be the nearest challengers to Leicester," he insists on the eve of his side's first game, at Harlequins. "I think it's a little bit of a false dawn. We'll try our best and give it everything but I think Leicester are still too good."
Kidology, perhaps, but four years of Leicester dominance have undoubtedly fostered an inferiority complex among certain clubs. Bristol's Kiwi coach Peter Thorburn, whose side have beaten the Tigers three times in their last four meetings, reckons the other 11 teams need to look deeper within themselves.
"Probably the area of difference between the Premiership and the Super 12 would be the hunger of Super 12 players. If they lose their job they've got to find a real job because there's nowhere else to go." Thorburn also has a pet saying which sums up Leicester's confident demeanour: "Arrogance is thinking you can do something, confidence is knowing you can do it."
And, grand final or not, Leicester will not be flopping obligingly into their pursuers' net. "It would be a massive achievement to win five Premiership titles in a row but it almost works in their favour," argues Evans. "Because the league is so competitive, everybody is beating everyone else."
A final warning comes from Neil Back: "This club wants to win everything and win every game. Whatever the format, we'll want to be at the top of the league." Game on.
· TV: Leeds v Leicester, live on Sky Sports 2, kick-off 2.0pm today
