Guardian writers' prediction: 17th Odds to win league: 1,000-1
It is easy to see where the bookmakers are coming from. If Alex McLeish was unable to keep the Birmingham City board happy during a promotion season, then what chance does he have of surviving in the Premier League? The Scot has been widely installed as favourite to be the first Premier League manager sacked this season and it is hard to imagine the odds lengthening following Birmingham's trip to Old Trafford on the opening weekend.
Birmingham will certainly need to be in better shape then than they are now. A disappointing pre-season has yielded only two victories hitherto and both of those were against League Two opposition. Of course, friendlies are not the most reliable barometer of how a team will perform when the competitive matches get under way but even McLeish has admitted that recent results are a "concern", with a lack of goals once again proving to be Birmingham's achilles heel.
Last season Norwich City, who were relegated to League One, managed to find the net on more occasions than the Championship runners-up. On too many occasions Birmingham's football was dour and the results uninspiring, prompting criticism from the club's hierarchy, in particular the managing director, Karren Brady. More of the same in the Premier League, where it seems fair to assume that grinding out points will prove more difficult, and McLeish could be on his way.
That is the theory, yet McLeish is a hardy character and, after spending five years in charge of Rangers, is more than capable of handling any pressure that comes from above. He proved that last season when he refused to become embroiled in a public spat with Brady after she drew unfavourable comparisons with Luiz Felipe Scolari, the sacked Chelsea manager. Two months later Birmingham were celebrating automatic promotion and McLeish had delivered what was asked of him.
Since then Birmingham have added eight new faces, including a trio who ought to be eager to grab their chance in the Premier League. Roger Johnson and Scott Dann, who have joined from Cardiff and Coventry respectively, have never played in the top flight and will be expected to form the backbone of the Birmingham defence. Further forward, Birmingham have shelled out around £7.7m on Christian Benítez, an Ecuador international.
At that price, Benítez represents quite a gamble. He will miss the first few weeks of the season with a shoulder injury, but thereafter Birmingham will look to the 23-year-old to have the same kind of impact in English football that Amr Zaki had at Wigan before the Egyptian's ego got the better of him. It is, however, tempting to wonder whether Wolverhampton Wanderers made better use of their money when they spent the same sum on Kevin Doyle, a proven goalscorer in English football.
Experience is the overriding theme in the Birmingham midfield, with Lee Bowyer and Barry Ferguson arriving from West Ham United and Rangers this summer and, at the moment, competing for the central berths along with Lee Carsley and Damien Johnson. Elsewhere, Sebastian Larsson and James McFadden should offer a more creative presence, providing they can rediscover their best form after allowing a season to pass them by in the Championship.
Joe Hart, who has joined on a season-long loan from Manchester City, is another player eager to make up for lost time. The 22-year-old appeared to have a promising career at City ahead of him until Shay Given arrived from Newcastle in January. Hart was keen to move to St Andrew's to strengthen his chances of being part of England's World Cup squad and he could well prove to be the best piece of business Birmingham have done this summer.
McLeish remains in the transfer market for more players, with a dynamic midfielder and left-back his main priorities, yet whoever the Birmingham manager brings in between now and the end of the month, the season appears destined to be a slog. Expect a few narrow victories, little entertainment and plenty of rumours about McLeish being on the brink. Give Big Eck a full season, however, and he might just manage to keep Birmingham up.
In: Christian Benítez (Santos Laguna, £7.7m), Scott Dann (Coventry City, £3.5m), Joe Hart (Manchester City, loan), Lee Bowyer (West Ham United, free), Roger Johnson (Cardiff City, £5m), Barry Ferguson (Rangers, £1.5m), Giovanny Espinoza (Barcelona Sporting Club, free), Stephen Carr (unattached, free)
Out: Stephen Kelly (Fulham, free), Krystian Pearce (Peterborough, loan), Robin Shroot (Burton, loan), James McPike (Kettering, free), Michael McKerr (Oldham, free), Semih Aydilek (released)
