The following blog was published in this morning's Guardian, so we have decided to bring it forward ahead of schedule. The Everton preview blog will be published here on Friday afternoon
Guardian writers' prediction: 1st Odds to win league: 11-4
Nineteen years have passed without league title No19 and still the prediction is that this could be Liverpool's year. But now the expectation is justified at Anfield and so high, so unforgiving, that not even Xabi Alonso's departure diminishes the demand on Rafael Benítez. Regaining the mantle of England's most decorated champions from Manchester United is imperative.
First, however, there must be caution amid the exultation. Benítez envisaged a summer of fine-tuning his squad after the first genuine title challenge of his reign but, despite the capture of Glen Johnson and impending arrival of Alberto Aquilani, it stands diminished. Alonso represents a serious loss from the spine of a first-choice XI that ranks alongside that of any Premier League rival and several other, albeit far less influential, players have been sold to raise funds. The loss of Alonso, however, does not have to be catastrophic to Liverpool's title prospects.
The club will undoubtedly miss the guile, technical ability and experience of a player who responded to Benítez's attempts to sell him last summer with arguably the finest season of his five-year spell on Merseyside. Of more importance is how Benítez spends the £30m he prised out of Florentino Pérez and Real Madrid for Alonso, a player he signed for £10.7m and valued at £18m 12 months ago on account of two injury-plagued but mediocre seasons; and whether Benítez will be allowed to reinvest Alonso's full transfer fee plus other monies promised this summer.
It is strange that the Liverpool squad has not been bolstered when it was lack of strength in depth, plus injury to Fernando Torres, that Benítez cited as the major reasons for falling four points short of United last season. In terms of numbers the arrival of Johnson and Aquilani, for instance, is offset by the departures of Alvaro Arbeloa and Alonso to the Bernabéu.
There remains time for strengthening and Liverpool indicated that the sale of Alonso might prompt a flurry of activity by securing a deal for Roma's playmaker Aquilani yesterday but it is unlike Benítez to leave money in his pocket should he have any available, as has been the case this summer. Cover is required at centre-half following Sami Hyypia's free transfer to Bayer Leverkusen while quality support for Torres and Steven Gerrard up front has not arrived seven months after Robbie Keane's return to White Hart Lane.
Given Benítez was promised £20m to spend plus whatever he raised in sales at the start of this summer – before the owners, George Gillett and Tom Hicks, secured a refinancing deal that involves repaying £60m of a £290m debt over the next 12 months – the Liverpool manager must have more than £40m at his dis- posal following Alonso's move. Should Aquilani overcome his injury problems and settle instantly – a prerequisite with the title at stake – a forward of the calibre of Valencia's David Silva arrive and defensive cover in the form of Sylvain Distin, for example, be brought in, then Benítez will have achieved his summer goals and Liverpool will embark on the new campaign wiser and stronger. But only Aquilani and a cheap defender would alter that assessment and raise further question marks over the Americans' financial might.
It is United, not Liverpool, who have lost more to the continued lure of Real Madrid and superior Spanish tax rates this summer and Sir Alex Ferguson could not ignore the foundation for Anfield's confidence even as he sought to dismiss their title credentials this week. "The thrust of the Liverpool team is really all about Gerrard and Torres," the United manager said. "If they stay fit, it improves Liverpool's chances."
Liverpool found a consistency that has long eluded them in the Premier League last season, even with Gerrard and Torres starting only 14 of 38 league matches together. Captain and talismanic striker produced 30 of Liverpool's 77 league goals last term, despite Torres suffering three hamstring strains that ruled him out of 14 league games. When fit, they represent Anfield's greatest hope. Injury to Torres or Gerrard would have a severe impact on the side but that argument applies to Wayne Rooney at Old Trafford.
Benítez finally got the measure of his "big four" rivals last season by taking 14 points from a possible 18 against the champions, Chelsea and Arsenal. Liverpool remained unbeaten in the league at Anfield all season, although their well-documented achilles heel – the seven draws at Anfield – continues to pain their manager. It is surely where a forward of Silva's ilk comes into the reckoning.
Johnson, desperate to seize his second chance at a top-four club following the disappointment of Stamford Bridge, appears a fine addition to the defence, able to provide adventurous support to Dirk Kuyt on the right and sure to improve defensively under Benítez's tutelage. Ryan Babel, having earned a reprieve from his manager this summer, will have to grasp his opportunity while greater responsibility will now fall on Javier Mascherano in light of Alonso's exit.
The Spaniard's sale means there is no prospect of the Argentina captain being granted his coveted move to Barcelona and much rests on his response. The title, however, may rest on Benítez's next moves in the transfer market.
Ins: Glen Johnson (Portsmouth, £18m), Alberto Aquilani (Roma, £20m)
Outs: Xabi Alonso (Real Madrid, £30m) Alvaro Arbeloa (Real Madrid, £3.5m), Sebastien Leto (Panathinaikos, £1.3m), Paul Anderson (Nottingham Forest, £250,000), Sami Hyypia (Bayer Leverkusen, free), Jermaine Pennant (Espanyol, free), Jack Hobbs (Leicester, free), Astrit Ajdarevic (Leicester, free), Shane O'Connor (Ipswich, free), Ryan Flynn (Falkirk, loan), Dean Bouzanis (Wrexham, loan)
