Guardian writers' prediction: 10th Odds to win league: 500-1
Fulham are bisexual. As things stand they could go either way. Wise man says they cannot possibly repeat the feat of last season – squad too small, others spend too big, bladdy, bladdy, blah – but Man Whose Wisdom Is Tinged With Optimism says there are also grounds for believing they could surpass last term's triumph. Perhaps to a greater extent than most clubs, where they end up will be influenced by what happens between now and the close of the transfer window. But perhaps not.
Lose Brede Hangeland to Arsenal, who are still mulling over a move for him, and downwards is the most likely direction. The Norwegian was certainly not the only reason for Fulham's defensive prowess last term – the greatest testament to Roy Hodgson's coaching acumen is that Paul Konchesky, Aaron Hughes, John Painstil and Mark Schwarzer, all of whom had failed to consistently convince elsewhere, all produced their best ever seasons in the Premier League. The manager's organisational skills were demonstrated by the fact that Fulham conceded fewer goals from set-pieces than any other team in the league. All the same, Hangeland was the linchpin of that formidable rearguard. He held things together with his positioning, strength and tackling, and his aerial dominance helped ensure Fulham also conceded fewer goals from headers than any other team. So he would be mighty difficult to replace.
Even if they fend off admirers during the transfer period, nothing guarantees injury will not at some stage deprive them of Hangeland or, indeed, of their other least dispensable player, that midfield mastermind Danny Murphy. In such a scenario a small squad could indeed be exposed, especially given the additional demands of the Europa League. So reinforcing before September seems prudent. Then again, we should never underestimate the expertise of Hodgson.
Most thought last January's sale of Jimmy Bullard would trigger a collapse but Dickson Etuhu turned out to be yet another unforeseen success. So it could be that, for example, summer signings Bjorn Helge Riise or Kagiso Dikgacoi (subject to work permit approval) will provide the midfield cover some say Fulham lack. Jonathan Greening, whom Hodgson attempted to wheedle out of West Bromwich, may have more Premier League pedigree than either of those recruits but the international displays of the South African, in particular, suggest he possess the distribution skills to fit into a side that completed more passes than any team outside the top four last season.
Hodgson would, of course, prefer not to have to make changes. He is old school enough to believe in the strength of a settled side, fielding the same starting line-up 20 times last season, more than any of his counterparts. The emergence of Clint Dempsey in the second half of that campaign mended the one imbalance that had afflicted the squad up until then, Zoltan Gera having previously struggled on the left-hand side of midfield.
Not only did Dempsey allay an irritant in midfield but his goals went some way towards mitigating the frustration of a forward line that worked well when it came to everything but finishing. Fulham struck only 39 goals from their 38 matches. Bobby Zamora was far from a flop – his dynamism and power gave him a certain Heskey-esque value – but a return of two league goals was inadequate and explains why Hodgson let him haggle with Hull when Phil Brown came calling.
Hodgson insists Zamora, who decided to stay at the Cottage, will improve this season but, having been unable to lure Peter Crouch, continues to seek another striker to leapfrog Zamora, Erik Nevland and possibly the departing Diomansy Kamara into the first XI. Andrew Johnson also needs to become sharper this season, and that seems probable given that much of his bluntness last term was down to the lingering effects of hamstring bother.
The prediction you see at the top of this piece reflects the cumulative forecasts of several Guardian scribes, some of whom may be fools. This particular scribe/fool believes in Hodgson. It is true that Manchester City, Tottenham and perhaps even Sunderland, all of whom have reinforced heavily, seem poised to overtake Fulham (though Aston Villa look weakened) but none of those clubs have shown they have the wherewithal to make the most of their resources. Hodgson has. A second successive European place is possible.
In: Stephen Kelly (Birmingham, free), Bjorn Helge Riise (Lillestrom, undisclosed), Kagiso Dikgacoi (Golden Arrows, undisclosed – subject to work permit approval)
Out: Moritz Volz (released), Julian Gray (released), Troy Brown (Ipswich, free), Olivier Dacourt (Internazionale, end of loan)
