The weather forecast is miserable and England are battening down the hatches. Beating New Zealand for the first time since 2003 would be nice but today's most urgent priority is to restore their supporters' faith and cause fewer paper darts to be hurled from the upper tiers of the stadium. If the home side kick the ball ineffectually skywards for 80 minutes there will be something close to uproar across middle England.
Never mind the rain or the latest grim tactical trend, there is an overwhelming desire for England to be less passive and more proactive. Regardless of recent injuries, there has to be more evidence of collective empathy. Tempers are frayed and nerves stretched inside and outside the dressing-room. In such cases the cornered animal usually comes out snarling. If England cannot ruffle even a few damp Kiwi feathers it really could develop into a bleak midwinter.
Perhaps the most devastating critique this week came not from a clearly frustrated Josh Lewsey but another of Johnson's former colleagues, Will Greenwood. His dagger-sharp video deconstruction of the Argentina game, notably the contrast between England's vain recent efforts to threaten the gain-line from first-phase and their 2003 heyday, exposed just how deep Jonny Wilkinson is standing and the bleeding obvious nature of England's attacking strategy. Et tu, Will?
Compare and contrast with Australia's myriad decoy runners and the artful angles of, say, Brian O'Driscoll or New Zealand's Conrad Smith. England are not scoring tries or busting defences because even the bloke in Row Z peering through a haze of best bitter knows what they are going to do next.
Things look up, admittedly, when England do not have the ball. They are good at chasing restarts and their set-piece work has been fine. Lewis Moody has been excellent at hassling kickers, forcing the kind of mistakes that can yield easy points. The All Black lineout is not impregnable and if someone can get to Dan Carter anything is possible. Sadly, that remains the biggest "if" in world rugby. It is no coincidence the All Blacks' fortunes have revived considerably since the sublime Carter regained fitness and teamed up once again with the ultimate tackle jackal, Richie McCaw. The pair of them put the zeal in New Zealand more reliably than anyone else.
Nor is it a fluke that Carter has yet to finish on the losing side against England in seven matches, during which he has averaged virtually 20 points per game. He could even afford to miss five kicks in the corresponding fixture last year when New Zealand still won 32-6 and the hosts had four players shown yellow cards. This time around he needs two points to overtake Andrew Mehrtens as his country's record points-scorer. "I don't think Dan Carter against Jonny Wilkinson is an even contest these days," mused the ex-All Black captain Taine Randell last weekend. We are about to find out.
The conditions should at least ensure a narrower margin and England's selection is already geared towards a dog fight. Two matches may be lodged in Johnson's self-conscious: his second cap in 1993, when England repeatedly smashed New Zealand back in the tackle and stole away with an unexpected 15-9 victory, and the 15-13 win in Wellington's Cake Tin in 2003 when the visitors somehow survived despite being reduced to a six-man pack. On neither occasion did England register a try but no one mentioned that afterwards.
This may not be a vintage All Black front five but like no other side on earth they always seem to find a way to close out games like this. "Kiwis hate losing to the Poms ... when you lose to England they talk it up heaps," mused Owen Franks, New Zealand's 21-year-old new tighthead. Given it has only happened six times, Owen, there is a good reason for that.
On the same basis England do not have a great deal to lose. Toby Flood and Fraser Waters would have been the dream wet-weather midfield but Johnson is hopeful the physicality of Ayoola Erinle and Dan Hipkiss will fluster Ma'a Nonu and co if the home side can start well up front. It is still hard to see the All Blacks being deprived of the Hillary Shield, the trophy honouring the late Sir Edmund. England, as ever in this fixture, have a mountain to climb.
