It has been a long six years since England lifted the World Cup. Over the past fortnight that momentous night in Sydney has felt increasingly distant, flickering in the memory like an old Pathe newsreel. Even Martin Johnson is beginning to sound like a hard-pressed politician, claiming signs of progress despite the contradictory evidence. "Maybe it doesn't seem so to some people but we are making strides." As with the supposed economic recovery, it depends on whom you talk to.

Johnson, of course, will for ever remain in credit on English rugby's swingometer, regardless of what lies ahead. Respect for his achievements as a player, even so, cannot obscure fault lines which urgently need addressing. Do the management, not to mention the Rugby Football Union hierarchy, truly believe England are looking good for the 2010 Six Nations and beyond? On the evidence of the autumn, even taking injuries into account, Johnson's inner cabinet are no closer to stockpiling trophies than they were 18 months ago.

Although New Zealand's defence is as tight as any – they have not conceded a try in Cardiff, Milan or London – England's meagre tally of one try in 240 minutes of rugby also tells a story. Attack-wise, they remain about as fluent as an inexperienced pianist with frostbitten fingers. Their autumn campaign, in the end, yielded two try-less defeats and a truly dire victory over the Pumas. England, to be blunt, have looked a mediocre team under worthy but unenlightened management.

At least they are a spirited, willing group. If not, the home side would not have resisted the All Blacks on Saturday for such a lengthy period. Nor are they alone at Test or domestic level in struggling to unlock defences or make headway at the breakdown. There will also be fit reinforcements by the time they regather for their opening Six Nations Championship game against Wales on 6 February. Yet even with their first-choice XV available, England's spell in the doldrums looks set to continue.

The fixture list, for a start, is unforgiving. Three stamina-sapping away games await in the Six Nations, two of them against improving Scotland and France, while Wales and Ireland will both fancy their chances in south-west London. Two summer Tests in Australia will be followed by a punishing autumn schedule against South Africa, Samoa, Australia and New Zealand. Kill or cure is the phrase that comes to mind.

Then there is the issue of Jonny Wilkinson. Playing opposite Dan Carter once again magnified the areas of his game that his defensive heroism and goal-kicking can tend to obscure. Both he and Johnson are warrior statesmen who do not always exhibit the breadth of vision possessed by the great strategists. England feel reassured by Wilkinson's presence but a below-par Carter still posed a far greater threat around the gain-line. England's blunt attacking edge is not solely a result of inspired opposition defence and redeploying Wilkinson away from the No10 playmaking slot may have to be contemplated.

Johnson, meanwhile, must rein in his obsession with 30-something journeymen and display more faith in the more youthful likes of Shane Geraghty, Danny Cipriani and Courtney Lawes. The evergreen Simon Shaw is a shining exception – it was no coincidence Steve Borthwick enjoyed his best game of the autumn following Shaw's return – but, at 36, he cannot go on for ever. As many as 40 players will be considered for the revised 32-man EPS squad to be named in the first week of January and Johnson simply has to be a bolder selector. "There are going to be some big calls to make and that will be driven by what we think is the best way to play going into the Six Nations," he said.

If he consults his players, they will advise him that retreating into their shells and picking defence-oriented teams will not get England very far. "We showed that when we express ourselves we're a very good team," said Ugo Monye, who was much happier back on the wing. "When you're up against good sides, we can't be afraid to play." Fitness levels must also be re-examined: England were either ahead or level in all three autumn games and won only one of them. In fairness the early loss of Joe Worsley with a twisted knee scarcely helped, while Nick Easter, Delon Armitage and Riki Flutey were all badly missed. "We were sitting there in October with half the squad going down," sighed Johnson. "It doesn't make it that easy."

The bottom line, though, is clear enough. England under Johnson in 2009 played 10 Tests, winning five and losing five. They have been beaten in their last eight games against New Zealand and their last six against South Africa. In five contests against Tri Nations sides at home soil in the past 12 months, the men in white have scored a princely total of one try. This lack of cutting edge meant New Zealand could splutter and still win comfortably, with Carter missing two kickable penalties and a couple of tries going begging prior to Jimmy Cowan's neatly worked 57th-minute effort.

It will be fascinating to see how the All Blacks go against France this Saturday. If they manage a 100% success rate on their latest odyssey through Tokyo, Cardiff, Twickenham, Milan and Marseille, Graham Henry's decision to reshuffle his coaching panel will have proved far sager than some of us predicted. There is a seasonal message for Johnson in there somewhere.

England Cueto (Sale); Banahan (Bath; Tait, Sale, 72), Hipkiss (Leicester), Erinle (Biarritz; Geraghty, London Irish, 63), Monye (Harlequins); Wilkinson (Toulon), Hodgson (London Irish; Care, Harlequins, 70); Payne (London Wasps; Bell, Bath 65), Hartley (Northampton; Thompson, Brive, 49), Bell (Bath; Wilson, Bath, 50), Borthwick (Saracens, capt), Shaw (London Wasps; Deacon, Leicester, 65), Worsley (Wasps; Croft, Leicester, 2), Moody (Leicester), Haskell (Wasps).

Pens Wilkinson 2.

New Zealand Muliaina (Waikato); Guildford (Hawke's Bay), Smith (Wellington), Nonu (Wellington), Sivivatu (Waikato); Carter (Canterbury), Cowan (Southland; Ellis, Canterbury, 71); Woodcock (North Harbour), Hore (Taranaki), Franks (Canterbury; Afoa, Auckland, 61), Thorn (Canterbury), Donnelly (Otago; Boric, North Harbour, 61), Thomson (Otago; Kaino, Auckland, 61), McCaw (Canterbury, capt), Read (Canterbury).

Try Cowan. Con Carter. Pens Carter 4.

Referee J Kaplan (S Africa). Attendance 80,676.