Barring a collapse at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday against an Australia side battling fatigue and injuries, Wales will for the first time since the middle of the 1980s start the Six Nations in February as favourites to defeat England at Twickenham.
It is a measure not just of England's decline but of Wales's improvement since Warren Gatland took over as head coach two years ago. They have this month asked New Zealand and Argentina more questions than England managed and victory over Australia would leave them close to breaking into the top five of the world rankings.
When Wales won at Twickenham last year for the first time since 1988 they were not expected to do so with the home side playing their first game since reaching the 2007 World Cup final, a tournament in which Wales fell at the group stage. "We have never been favourites in all the years I have played at Twickenham," said the Wales flanker Martyn Williams, who made his first appearance at the ground in 1998. "If we beat Australia, it would give us momentum to take into the Six Nations, although there is a lot of rugby to be played before then.
"England have come under some pressure this month, but I never expected New Zealand to blow them away last Saturday. England have a number of players of real quality and have had a number of guys out with injuries. With their strength in depth, it is only a matter of time before they click but we are at the stage now where we have to go to a place like Twickenham believing we can win.""The quality of players we have on the bench and in reserve is greater than in any of the previous years I have been involved. We targeted four victories out of four this month and it was bitterly disappointing to come up just short against the All Blacks. The Wales squad is an exciting place to be at the moment and we have to go out and perform against Australia."
The Wallabies limped into Cardiff yesterday after their 9-8 defeat by Scotland at Murrayfield and a performance that had them labelled an international laughing stock back in Australia. Six players are struggling with injuries and they have had to include seven of the starting line-up in Edinburgh in the 22 for tomorrow night's match against Cardiff Blues.
"Australia is a defining game for us," said the Wales attack coach, Robert Howley. "Everyone will appreciate that we beat them last year and coming into this match, we would like to think we are the favourites. The Wallabies will be disappointed at their lack of finishing power last weekend, but they are an incisive side with a number of world-class players.
"It will be a huge afternoon for us. We stepped up against Argentina last Saturday, climbed two places to sixth in the world rankings and we want to go into the Six Nations with the scalp of a top southern hemisphere team. Both sides like to play with the ball in hand and it could well be the game of the month."
Wales name their side tomorrow but Dwayne Peel will play at scrum-half with Gareth Cooper, the player who started in the position against Argentina, released to play for the Blues tomorrow, along with Williams's understudy at open-side wing forward, Sam Warburton. The centre, Tom Shanklin, is fit again after missing out on the weekend with a nose injury.
The Australia coach, Robbie Deans, warned Wales not to expect dispirited opponents to turn up on Saturday. The Wallabies have won only one of their three matches against the home unions this month after losing to New Zealand in Tokyo and he laid into the squad after a first defeat to Scotland in 27 years.
"We have another opportunity against Wales and we are fortunate to do so because it would have been tough to chew on that last effort," he said. "There is really not much involved in turning things round. We got over the line three times against Scotland and it is a question of taking that first step. I have never known a more shattered shed [dressing room] than last Saturday: it was a team that knew they had contributed to their own demise in every way possible."
