Last weekend all remaining general public tickets for this season's Heineken Cup final in Paris sold out six months in advance. There are two instinctive reactions: 1) Are there really still six months of the season to go? (Answer: Yes, you lightweight); and 2) Can't wait. When it comes to refreshing jaded rugby palates, nothing does the trick quite like the lure of Paris in late spring and the glorious certainty of significant drama en route.
So never mind the buzzwords of recent weeks: slow ball, breakdown, endless kicking. Good riddance, for now, to England's deficiencies and depressing law interpretations. Just place yourself instead in the boots of last season's finalists, Leinster and Leicester. Back in October a trip to Parc y Scarlets might not have unduly concerned Leinster; suddenly their hosts are two from two and, thanks to London Irish's victory at the RDS, it could yet be checkmate for their Australian coach, Michael Cheika, if they lose in west Wales without a bonus point. Leicester, having drawn at home to the Ospreys, will effectively be stuffed Tigers before Christmas if they contrive to lose home and away to Clermont Auvergne over the next two weekends. Ticking away in everyone's mind, too, is the need to score tries to enhance qualification prospects. It is a wonderfully combustible mix.
In some cases, sides have no option but to come out firing, regardless of weather or opposition. Home defeats for Harlequins and Bath and, qualification-wise, it will be over and out. Gloucester have precious little margin for error, as do Perpignan and Clermont. It may surprise some to hear that Toulouse have lost their last three away games in the French Top 14, most recently at Brive. What price a cheeky little home win for the Blues in Cardiff on Saturday afternoon?
The more you study recent form, in fact, the more obvious it becomes that a committed club with a half-decent defence can seriously damage the aspirations of anyone in Europe, particularly at home. A load of sides are stuttering, so much so that Brive and Newport Gwent Dragons have been statistically as good as anyone over the past month. Clermont, my pre-season tip for a place in the final at the Stade de France, have managed just one win in their last seven games. Allez, chaps, or we will all be consuming humble pie on a Massif scale.
Bath, meanwhile, cannot seem to beat anyone just now and even Northampton, on the up domestically, may have to settle for a place in the Amlin Challenge Cup knockout phases. For the first time the third, fourth and fifth-best runners-up in the Heineken pool stages will be rehoused in the Challenge Cup quarter-finals, something of a backhanded reward. It is hard to imagine Munster, for instance, viewing that prospect with enormous relish.
From where I'm sitting – and making allowances for a steep desperation factor in several cases – it is harder still to envisage many away wins. The weekend figure could be as high as 10 home wins out of 12 if the Kitsometer is properly attuned. The exceptions to the general rule could be the Ospreys in Viadana and Edinburgh at Bath, although the Dragons and London Irish should prove a handful in Biarritz and Brive respectively. Here are a couple of relevant stats: Leicester have lost their last four on the road, while their autumn win in Viadana was only their second away from home in the Heineken Cup since stealing Munster's long unbeaten home record almost three years ago. Even the best travellers are finding it tough.
And the Scarlets? Already they are the only non-French side with a 100% record in this season's competition. It will really be something if they maintain that sequence against a Leinster team containing half of Ireland's first-choice side. Cheika's boys have played in Wales three times already this season, albeit with a diluted team, and lost twice. This could just be among the keynote games of the tournament.
Heineken Cup round three fixtures (all kick-offs local time)
Friday 11 December 2009
Pool 1 Munster v Perpignan 20.00 Pool 2 Glasgow Warriors v Gloucester Rugby 19.30
Saturday 12 December 2009
Pool 1 Northampton Saints v Benetton Treviso Pool 3 Viadana v Ospreys
Pool 4 Ulster Rugby v Stade Français
Pool 5 Cardiff Blues v Toulouse
Pool 6 Scarlets v Leinster
Pool 6 Brive v London Irish
Sunday 13 December 2009
Pool 2 Biarritz Olympique v Newport Gwent Dragons 13.45 Pool 3 ASM Clermont Auvergne v Leicester Tigers 16.00
Pool 4 Bath Rugby v Edinburgh 15.00
Pool 5 Harlequins v Sale Sharks 12.45
Memory game
Next week in this column, just to alert those of you who hate a list even more than you do lazy nationality-based stereotypes, Iain Balshaw or my esteemed colleague Paul Rees's magnificent moustache, we shall be selecting the ultimate highlights of the past decade in rugby union. The categories are as follows: The Best 10 games (club or international); Best try; Most influential player; Most memorable moment and Unsung hero of the Noughties. All views and suggestions on the subject will, as ever, be gratefully received.
Not-so-decent interval
Occasionally you wonder if the professional game has advanced much over the past 10 years. There we all were in High Wycombe on Sunday, idly wondering what half-time entertainment might lie in store. Kicking competitions? Cheerleaders? Tug of war? Yards of ale? Nope. Wasps are a friendly club and there was plenty of fun stuff happening outside in the car park but which genius suggested entertaining the crowd during the interval with an on-field game of Rock, Paper, Scissors? Coming soon to a Premiership ground near you: toss the welly, shove ha'penny and cribbage.
