There seems to be a certain gloom about Ireland at the moment. One defeat and they've plummeted from the position of Six Nations grand slam defending champions, unbeaten in 2009, to dog meat at Twickenham. Perhaps it's a sign of rugby capturing a wider audience that every nuance has to be presented as a lurch towards an extreme.
The reality seems to be that every coach is doing his best to achieve stability in selection. England announce the same team for Ireland as played against Italy; consistency is mentioned every second sentence in France.
It applies to Ireland, although a change has been made at outside-half, Jonathan Sexton coming in for Ronan O'Gara. Is this the end of an era or merely a return to the starting combination of last November, when Ireland beat South Africa?
Ireland lost in Paris on a day when Marc Lièvremont's team played very forcefully in all departments. To count such a defeat as an Irish fall off the precipice is to ignore how exceedingly difficult it is to play away in France, even against French sides nowhere near as strong as this current outfit.
England will not be able to exert the same pressure on the Irish scrum as Thomas Domingo and Nicolas Mas managed. As long as Carl Hayman is with the Newcastle Falcons rather than the New Zealand All Blacks, nobody will be able to, not even Argentina. France are an outstanding scrummaging team, and Scotland and Ireland will not be the only teams to suffer in this Six Nations.
England-Ireland will be very close. If John Hayes is not the most compact scrummager on earth he is certainly one of the best hydraulic lifters at the line-out. His hundred caps are a reward for propelling his loads up into the air fast and high.
They say that Steve Borthwick is one of the best readers of an opposition lineout. This may not be his most taxing piece of research, for the key is to keep an eye on Hayes as much as the jumpers. Of course, Ireland may use their prop as a decoy, but that means they throw to a second, lesser, option.
Or Ireland might simply say, fine, you've worked us out, but can you still win the ball? It's going to Paul O'Connell, lifted by Hayes. We'll give you that for free. But look, there they go, and there you are, still on the ground.
Not being able to stop what you know for sure is going to happen can be dispiriting. As for the England throw, it will be interesting to see if they persist with that long throw to Nick Easter, the very rewarding source, but the one Dylan Hartley threw shorter and shorter in Rome.
Having said that, England have not been generally short of ball in their two victories, and they might be able to procure a bit more turnover possession if they can lure Ireland into static situations, where England's muscularity comes into play. The home forwards might edge that area; Ireland shade the lineout; all square at the scrum.
What will turn the game? Perhaps discipline. Yellow cards are as much an indication of building pressure as they are of spontaneous misconduct. And the theme of the championship so far is that yellow cards hurt on the scoreboard.
There is the alternative reaction, like Italy's after Martin Castrogiovanni was binned, that the reduction can serve to inspire those that remain. But I don't imagine any coach will be selling the merits of playing with 14. In fact, discipline will be a universal bullet point.
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