At last, a simple Saturday in the Six Nations, three finals going from mini to grand in neatly ascending order, finishing at the Stade de France with France's grand slam against England. Friday night rugby has a certain appeal, but will anyone miss not having a Sunday game?

How can there be anything of a final about Wales-Italy, I hear you mutter? Well, why not, since every international game, as Martin Johnson has stressed, has worth in its own right. Wales have a last chance to ... well, the list is long, but it includes putting the line-out right, knowing an important scrum when it comes your way, not tripping anyone, not slapping, spilling or throwing away the ball ... and making a few tackles in the opening moments would come in handy.

It has been going from unsatisfactory to disturbingly wayward for Wales and they still risk ending up clutching the wooden spoon. Italy played in Paris like Fiji did against Australia at the 2007 World Cup in Montpellier. That is, they turned up and went through the motions of providing opposition, but they had a later date with Wales, in Nantes, more on their mind.

All Nick Mallett has to do is order more of what Pablo Canavosio and Paul Derbyshire showed when they came on as replacements in Paris, and Italy could yet match their best record in the Six Nations of two wins.

Wales have gone back to self-analysis. Well, first they went into selection and offered themselves the comfort of putting Gethin Jenkins, Ryan Jones and Mike Phillips on the team sheet. Then they went a little wacky and selected an infant on the wing, Tom Prydie, a choice influenced by the confusion it is bound to cause among the Italian analysts who, like everyone in Wales, will not have seen the tot play.

The phrase, "looking good in training," should always set an alarm bell ringing. The Sinclair C5, I am sure, looked good on the drawing board and in trials behind closed doors. It's just that in the traffic of real life it was a tiddler. Anyway, good luck to Prydie.

Warren Gatland then completed his musings on his team of the moment by confessing that he had made the mistake of empowering the players. My God, hadn't he been the one to put Alfie's mobile number on the blackboard and say that he never ever wanted to see it dialled? Didn't he realise that Gareth Jenkins had tried to treat Wales like grown-ups? Look what happened when they faced Fiji. The coach before himself got the bullet.

Wales are not adults, or at least not normal ones, and should not be treated as such. They are all Tom Prydies, and seem to respond best to a childhood spent with Shaun Edwards shouting in their faces like some enraged Nanny McPhee. I know the management team think they cannot possibly keep shouting for the entire duration of their contracts, but if they view it as a performance - a couple of loud hours on stage every day - they can probably come back from the 2011 World Cup happy and hoarse.

Letting the payers think for themselves? Such nonsense will see Gatland sectioned or worse. Doesn't he know that so close to the World Cup is the sacking season in Wales?

So, it truly is a final in Wales. A jobs-on-the-line final, as the hysteria would have it. And if you think that hysteria has no place in rugby, then presumably you don't go shopping in Torfaen on the Monday morning after a Welsh defeat.

Ireland could not be better prepared for their Triple Crown final against Scotland. The memory of France has taken its place as a reminder of what not to do, and the players have responded since by not doing it. They are efficient and startlingly good at waiting patiently without the ball and then striking with it.

They do have this funny little thing about struggling to be quite so efficient and ruthless against Scotland, who would not be the worst team, by a long stretch, to end up with the wooden spoon. In fact, calling on the spirits of Croke Park and promising to say farewell in style seem to be taking Ireland into a superstition reserved for Wales. If they overdo the emotion of the goodbye they could come unstuck.

Might that happen to England at the Stade de France? France have been way out on their own in terms of converting perspiration into inspiration. The front five, not massive by any means and not perfect at the line-out, have been superb at the scrummage and thorough at the breakdown. They have made discoveries in Thomas Domingo and Julien Pierre, and the moulding of Mathieu Bastareaud into an extraordinary player continues sweetly.

But they too have a nagging doubt, about England, who have beaten them on the last three occasions and at the last two World Cups. The need to be different, to set themselves for the physical challenge peculiar to England, could alter France for the worse.

Something tells me that England are going to be very difficult to break down. To deny France on their grand slam day might be expecting too much, however this is not going to be a riot of French delight but a final step taken with exhaustion. And the Six Nations will be so much the better for it.

So, home wins. But each delivered with a mean degree of discomfort. France 18 -15 England; Ireland 18-15 Scotland; Wales 18-15 Italy.

This is an excerpt from The Breakdown, theguardian.com's twice-weekly free email during the Six Nations. Sign up now!