Run this one past your bookie. If there have been only two victories for the away teams in six years of play-off semi-finals then what odds will he give on two in one weekend?
Think about it; in 11 games only two away sides – London Irish at The Stoop last year and Leicester at Kingsholm in 2008 – have gone through to the final day, but this time it's wide open. More than that, Northampton versus Saracens and Bath at Leicester later on Sunday could be the best play-off weekend so far. The ingredients are there.
First Franklin's Gardens. No one can have missed the needle that exists between Saracens and Northampton. First there was the case of Soane Tonga'uiha, the prop who seemed to have signed for five years with Saracens before changing his mind to do three more at Northampton. Then there was the crackling LV semi in March when the French referee Romain Poite waved five yellow cards – three for Saracens. Most recently there was Saracens' one-point win at Franklin's Gardens and what the Northampton management regarded as over-enthusiastic celebrations.
By coming second in the Premiership to Saracens' third, Northampton claimed home advantage, but if one side is peaking at the right time it's Saracens. After racing away at the start of the season, they are winning again now with Fortress Welford Road falling last weekend after that win at Northampton. All praise to the coaching staff. They were criticised for a lack of ambition early on but knew that the nature of the game then dictated how it should be played. There followed a three- or four-game blip in February and March, but when the situation began to favour attacking rugby, Brendan Venter and the coaches reassessed the situation and started winning by scoring hatfuls of tries.
There are issues in the eyes of some about Saracens being allowed to recruit a prop – an invaluable one as it turned out – beyond the deadline for signing, but safety was the issue there and all but those with a closed mind will have appreciated the improvement this year and the talent coming through at Vicarage Road.
That said, Bath's turnaround has to be the biggest this season. From one off the bottom around Christmas to fourth place and a play-off required 11 wins from the final 12 league games and I know first hand just what a potent attacking threat Steve Meehan's men have become as they head to Leicester.
The one blemish was at Welford Road last month, when five tries to two and 43 points to 20 turned out to be quite a thumping for a side that was then on a seven-game roll. However, Bath were missing key men in the pack that day – Luke Watson, Danny Grewcock and David Flatman for example, all of whom should be around on Sunday – while the Leicester eight were at their very best. Since then Leicester have lost two hookers, Mefin Davies and Tom Youngs, and been denied permission to buy in a replacement – unlike Saracens with their prop problem – and must be sweating on getting George Chuter fit and ready.
Everything will depend on whether the Bath set piece holds together. If it does, then Bath have the knowhow and Test match experience at Nos 8, 9, 10 – Watson, Michael Claassens and Butch James – to win the game.
While James was injured, Claassens looked half the player. With the link of Watson at the base of the scrum and James organising things outside him, the captain has started to be an individual threat as well as a provider. With James's skills in communication and direction, plus the Springbok's awareness of what's going on around him, Olly Barkley is increasingly confident in his own talents and the time he can take to make things work. It's a midfield Meehan, probably the best attack coach in the land currently, probably only dared to dream about when viewing the wreckage back in November after London Irish had left the Rec without conceding a point.
