Pool One
A tough old group, which is hard on the young Scarlets team that probably does not have enough up front. Perhaps in another year, but it's hard to look beyond Northampton, who came within 40 minutes of winning the Heineken Cup last time, and Munster, the two-times winners who have bags of pedigree. They know each other well and this time it's Northampton's turn to go away from home first up and Thomond still has that aura about it, even if Harlequins did dent Munster's pride last season. That said, this is the group where anyone can beat anyone on their day and while Castres don't often get out of the pool stages themselves, they frequently have a say in who does and, despite going off the boil a bit in the past couple of weeks, are still third in the Top 14.
Prediction Northampton, Munster, Castres, Scarlets
Pool Two
The underachievers and the new boys. London Irish have flattered and Cardiff Blues frequently haven't punched their weight in the Heineken, while Edinburgh have only got out of the pool stages once and Racing had a poor first season, considering the talent available to them. This time, however, I think Blues will get off to a decent start in Paris where the Stade Yves-du-Manoir in Colombes is a good patch to play on. They have Sam Warburton, Gethin Jenkins, Bradley Davies, Lloyd Williams, Jamie Roberts and Leigh Halfpenny back from the World Cup whereas Racing are without Frans Steyn, Mirco Bergamasco and Benjamin Sa, while Sébastien Chabal is currently off song. I like what I've seen of Dan Bowden running the Irish attack, but there are questions about the pack and strength in depth.
Prediction Blues, London Irish, Racing, Edinburgh
Pool Three
Leinster, ranked first in Europe and currently second in the Pro12, have more Heineken pedigree than the other three put together – and that's counting Bath's win back in 1998. Losing Brian O'Driscoll would hurt any side, but I can't see the Irish struggling, although I would back Bath to go through to the knockout stages with them. Montpellier, a team of many, many nationalities, seem to be struggling near the bottom of the Top 14. Their World Cup men lost valuable game-time together when last week's match was cancelled by an outbreak of mumps in Lyon. Bath aren't anywhere near their fluid best yet, but Leinster seemed to have timed things really well with a good win over Munster last weekend ahead of the French opener which Montpellier have moved to the 33,000 Stade de la Mosson.
Prediction Leinster, Bath (qual), Montpellier, Glasgow
Pool Four
Look at Clermont's squad sheet and you wonder why they've never gone further than the quarter-finals. Look at their form guide – eight wins from their last eight at home in the Heineken, but only two from nine on the road – and you get a clue and I still fancy Leicester to know enough to squeeze through. But it will be tight, especially as Clermont have been buying again with Sitiveni Sivivatu probably the biggest signing in Europe this summer while the Leicester back division might be a little on the light side. It could even go down to the odd bonus point here and there. The Leicester-Clermont double-header just before Christmas will obviously be key, although no one in their right mind will be thinking that a visit to Ravenhill, with the wind and rain blowing in off the Belfast Lough, is easy pickings.
Prediction Leicester, Clermont, Ulster, Aironi
Pool Five
I know French sides are written off too easily, but Biarritz – twice runners-up and twice semi-finalists, real Heineken heavyweights, – are in the Top 14 basement, just one win from nine and their last result a 41-0 defeat to Clermont. Dimitri Yachvili and Imanol Harinordoquy, who worked wonders for France in New Zealand, have their hands full if they are to get a decent start at Ospreys on Saturday. Conversely, Ospreys sit on top of the Pro12 and from what I saw at the World Cup, have bought wisely in signing the Samoan scrum-half, Kahn Fotuali'i. However, it's the English champions, Saracens, who have been behaving like a side bent on a serious European campaign. They are winning their league matches without overtiring key players and have a nicely balanced squad. And I fancy Ospreys to go through with them.
Prediction Saracens, Ospreys (qual), Biarritz, Treviso
Pool Six
Now for a gamble. Conventional wisdom says you win a Premiership title before a Heineken Cup – although Wasps did it other way round – and I have a sneaking feeling that, with games against Connacht first and then Gloucester, Harlequins will have gained the momentum for the pre-Christmas double-header against Toulouse and that this is one of those rare years when the four-times winners don't get to the quarter-finals. I know they sit on top of their French league, but guys like Byron Kelleher and Cédric Heymans, who know how to win big European games, have gone. Mind you, with the Harlequins forwards, I do have a bit of trouble with another slice of conventional wisdom: that your pack gets you out of the pool stage and your backs win the knockouts.
Prediction Quins, Toulouse, Gloucester, Connacht
