These may be taxing times for the Welsh regions, struggling to keep their heads above water despite liquidity problems, but there could be no excuses for the abject display of Cardiff Blues in the opening half at Exeter on Sunday, opponents with considerably less Heineken Cup experience who are in the middle tier of the Premiership.
The regions are concerned, with the future of European club rugby still to be settled, that they will lack the means to make realistic offers to players who are out of contract at the end of the season, including Leigh Halfpenny, Sam Warburton, Alun Wyn Jones and Jonathan Davies.
They will need to tie them down before the end of the year, when they will be able to speak to potential new employers, but with the market value of those who were an integral part of the Lions' success in Australia in the summer increasing by at least 50%, they need an increase in revenue just to stand still: if there is no Heineken Cup, or a replacement, they will be some £1.5m worse off each.
The regions had hoped to resolve the contract issues before the start of next month's internationals: Warburton and Davies have publicly said that they want to stay with the Blues and the Scarlets respectively, but they are in limbo, not far from the point when they will have to look at other options.
The Blues fielded 13 internationals, five of whom were Lions, at Sandy Park but they looked a team of novices, 41–3 down before they found it in them to respond. They showed no spirit in adversity and neither, more surprisingly, did Ospreys at home to Leinster on Saturday night.
Alex Cuthbert, the Wales and Lions wing, scored two tries for the Blues and was their one player who rose above the mess, wearing such a look of disbelief in the first-half that if it as if he were asking himself why he last season signed a three-year contract extension with the region.
Similarly the Ospreys captain, Alun Wyn Jones, had to suppress his anger when discussing the defeat to Leinster a few minutes after the final whistle. Jones has played for Ospreys all his senior career and the region regards him as the central figure in the squad, someone worth even as much off the field as he is on it, but whereas his heart will tell him to sign a new deal, once figures are attached his head may tell him that, at the age of 28, it may be time to leave.
While the Blues had no excuses for their abject start against Exeter, Ospreys had a bench made up largely of emerging players against Leinster, a consequence of injuries and a budget that is lower than their French, English and Irish rivals. They had no one to turn a game that was ebbing from them and the fear of all four regions is that, if there is a European settlement, they will play no part in it and could end up poorer in relative, if not real, terms.
The Welsh Rugby Union, which in recent years has been more of a rival than a support to its regions, has said it alone will be involved in whatever form negotiations take, with European Rugby Cup Ltd's survival prospects looking more remote by the day. The regions will remain on the outside.
The WRU's policy has been to find an ERC solution, that is to perpetuate the Heineken Cup, but the obduracy of the French and English clubs, who are adamant they will not after this season play in a tournament organised by ERC - and unlike previous disputes over Europe, in 1998 and 2006–07, they have not gone into the conference room naked, having armed themselves with what they describe as a lucrative television deal - has prompted it to consider an alternative.
Premiership Rugby has not specified exactly how much its BT television deal would add to the £44m shared by the six nations from the Heineken Cup. A figure of £70m has been quoted, but that would leave the four Welsh regions barely better off if the English and French clubs' demand for a three-way split between the leagues that feed into the European tournaments is accepted.
Currently, the four RaboDirect Pro 12 unions have 52% of the pot with the English and French clubs each banking 24%. If the pot increased to £70m and was divided three ways, the Rabo nations would have £23.33m, barely more than the £23m they had last season. It is understood that there is a proposal that 15% of the total should be apportioned on a merit basis: if that happened, the £70m would shrivel to less than £60m, meaning the basic sum for all three leagues would be less than £20m.
The Rabo unions share their money disproportionately, with Italy and Scotland receiving more per team than Ireland and Wales. The ideal for the four regions would be a division by 12, the number of teams in the Pro 12, which would give them a similar increase to the English and French clubs.
They will have no say in the carve-up, being reliant on the WRU, and the governing body has yet to say that it will be looking to secure the best possible deal for its professional sides. Its priority is to get the regions to sign a participation agreement with the union to replace the one that runs out at the end of the season, with the offer of an extra £1m to help retain players if they do.
The fear of the regions is that the WRU is waiting for the day when they collapse and the union will then set up its own sides, two or three in number and run them in the manner of Ireland's provinces.
It is a reason why the mood in the regions is so down, notwithstanding the Scarlets' ebullient display at Harlequins. They feel they will be worse off whatever the European outcome, losing not just their Lions but the next wave of Wales internationals. Their destiny will be decided by others and they need to find a way to get involved in the discussions.
