New year, fresh slate, same old debate. England's backline fluency has been an area so intensively mined for so long there should be grassy slag heaps dotted around Twickenham by now. Forward power is not traditionally an issue but the quest for sustainable, consistent sources of energy behind the scrum rumbles on and on.
How is it that a country with as many rugby union players – and athletes – as England finds it so hard to locate half a dozen complementary individuals capable of cohesive attacking movement at Test level? Since Will Greenwood bowed out in 2005 there have been any number of would-be catalysts.
Many of those who have come and gone – Shontayne Hape, Ayoola Erinle, Matt Banahan, Lesley Vainikolo et al – were decent players but none were in danger of being mistaken for a young Jeremy Guscott.
At last, though, times seem to be changing. The youthful likes of Anthony Watson, Christian Wade, Marland Yarde, Jonny May and Jack Nowell are giving the lie to the traditional southern-hemisphere perception of stodgy English back-play served up on rice pudding surfaces with nil imagination. The similarly exciting Harlequins' wing Charlie Walker revealed this week that he and his club-mates play a version of rugby netball to improve their spatial awareness and spend many hours doing hand-eye co-ordination exercises. The Leicester-reared Walker, the owner of a prodigious sidestep which left Tom Johnson sprawling at Twickenham last week, is another talent worth watching.
But let's not race too far ahead. The 2015 Rugby World Cup starts in 622 days' time. The immediate priority is not kids with lightning feet but the overall balance and effectiveness of a back division at the highest level. Conrad Smith and his namesake Ben are not massive specimens but they, along with the equally diminutive Aaron Cruden and the callow Beauden Barrett, helped New Zealand win 14 Tests on the spin this year. Not even a genius wins international matches single-handed.
First, then, England must choose players who fit the way they wish to play in 2014. Next Thursday's EPS squad announcement will see the Northampton centre Luther Burrell elevated to the senior squad but the exercise is mostly administrative. The real fun starts when replacements for the various injured squad members are named just under a fortnight before the Six Nations kicking off. "If you have players you want to play in 2015, you have to give them some experience prior to that point," says Rob Hunter, the former England Under-20 coach who presided over the development of George Ford, Owen Farrell, Yarde and others. "I can't see too many people forcing their way in after this summer."
Which means selection for this Six Nations has to be at once bold, thoughtful and far-sighted. Privately, the national team's brains trust concede the next World Cup will not be won by route-one tactics alone. Sending Manu Tuilagi up on the crash ball and kicking lots of goals will be insufficient. Even South Africa have started to move the ball wider and Quade Cooper and Israel Folau have revitalised Australia. Drab old English efficiency will not cut it. "If you want to win at the top level now you're probably going to need to score more than 25 points per game," warns Hunter, now part of the coaching set-up at Exeter Chiefs. "You've got to be able to defend but you've got to be able to attack as well."
England's head coach Stuart Lancaster feels similarly and favours a ball-playing inside centre where possible. First, though, he needs a smooth operator at stand-off to extract the best from those outside him. Is Owen Farrell that consummate general? Or, with Toby Flood bound for France, might opportunity knock for George Ford, Freddie Burns, Danny Cipriani or even Henry Slade, the world champion Under-20-winning fly-half from Exeter?
At the moment Farrell retains the inside rail. He is a remarkable competitor and his goal-kicking alone makes him difficult to leave out. There are times, even so, when his midfield team-mates might appreciate a playmaker with a shade more guile. In terms of pure vision, Ford probably has the edge. On the other hand, Ford does not have Farrell's warrior physicality, nor yet his marksman's reliability, although his supporters feel promotion is already overdue. Toby Booth, one of his coaches at Bath, says Ford is "100% ready" if England handle him properly. "Young players need to be put in a 'no fear' environment so they can go and express themselves and see what they can do."
Could Ford and Farrell play together? The last coach to try it was Hunter at the Junior World Cup in 2011 when England Under-20s pursued a wide-wide game. "I don't think it would necessarily be the way forward for England," says Hunter now. "They're both high-quality players and Owen has played very well at centre for his club. But if you play George at 10, is Owen Farrell the best 12 in England? There are many other good players out there." Hunter, incidentally, is another Ford admirer. "If you're going to pick him you need to allow him to run things. If you do that you're going to bring out the best in George. I think he's a phenomenally good player but I don't have to pick the side."
But if Farrell is not deemed sufficiently threatening to play at 12, who does? As things stand Billy Twelvetrees and Burrell are likely to be paired in midfield against France in Paris on 2 February but other potential combos are available: Burrell and Jonathan Joseph, Twelvetrees and Henry Trinder, the fit-again Brad Barritt and Elliot Daly, Kyle Eastmond and Matt Hopper? How many would you back to win not just a couple of Six Nations games but a World Cup? Better, perhaps, to ask who the All Blacks would least prefer.
There is no question the injured Tuilagi has their respect but he might cause as many headaches on the left wing, down which he scores a high percentage of his tries. "He'd be a hell of a threat out there," says Hunter. So what about Tuilagi on one flank and the distinctly rapid Watson on the other, with Wade, Yarde, Nowell, May and Chris Ashton in reserve? In that scenario a defensive rock – Barritt – and a ball-playing 12 with good distribution skills – Twelvetrees – might offer the required balance.
All this assumes Mike Brown, England's player of the autumn, retains his excellent form at full-back through to 2015. He is neither a Folau nor an Israel Dagg but his desire and spirit is second to none.
He will be mighty hard to dislodge, which leaves Alex Goode, Ben Foden and Mathew Tait effectively chasing one World Cup squad place.
Then again, what if Lancaster experiments a little? What would happen if the Saxons side to face Irish Wolfhounds later this month featured Cipriani at 10, Nowell and Walker out wide, Eastmond and Daly in the centres and Watson at full-back? "In 2019 there are going to be an awful lot of players at their peak," predicts Hunter. "You could have some incredible options. Over the next few years you'll see others coming into the mix."
England spoilt for backline talent? A strange new world is dawning.
England's backline pecking order
Full-back 1 Mike Brown 2 Alex Goode 3 Ben Foden (currently injured)
Right wing 1 Christian Wade (injured) 2 Chris Ashton 3 Anthony Watson
Outside Centre 1 Manu Tuilagi (injured) 2 Joel Tomkins (injured) 3 Luther Burrell
Inside centre 1 Billy Twelvetrees 2 Brad Barritt 3 K Eastmond
Left wing 1 Marland Yarde (injured) 2 Jonny May 3 U Monye (injured)
Fly-half 1 Owen Farrell 2 Toby Flood 3 Freddie Burns
Scrum-half 1 Lee Dickson 2 Ben Youngs 3 Danny Care.
Backline contenders for the RWC 2015 squad
George Ford, Danny Cipriani, Jonathan Joseph, Elliot Daly, Henry Trinder, Jack Nowell, Mathew Tait.
Likely England XV v France in Six Nations
Brown; Ashton, Burrell, Twelvetrees, May; Farrell, Dickson; Marler, Hartley, Cole, Lawes, Launchbury, Wood, Robshaw, B Vunipola.
Possible RWC 2015 XV
Brown; Wade, Tuilagi, Twelvetrees, Yarde; Ford or Farrell, B Youngs; Corbisiero, Hartley, Cole, Lawes, Launchbury, Croft, Robshaw, B Vunipola.