It is seven years since an English side lifted the Heineken Cup and the odds against that persistent itch being scratched this season are not improving. The knockout stages of Europe's elite club competition in April will involve Saracens and Leicester but, once again, their familiar rivals from France and Ireland are threatening to dominate the closing stages of a tournament which grows increasingly hard to win.

While Saracens already knew they would be required to travel to Belfast to face the best winner of the pools, Ulster, Leicester were left to contemplate the uphill challenge of a visit to the Massif Central to face the French side Clermont Auvergne. The alternative had been a potential trip to the defending champions Toulon, which might just have been the lesser of two evils. Clermont have now won their last 71 games at home and lost just once in 89 matches at the Stade Marcel Michelin.

Even if Sarries and Tigers do somehow battle their way through to the last four, the semi-final draw conducted in Limerick still leaves them much to do. Saracens, if they were to conquer Ravenhill, would at least entertain either Clermont or Leicester on English soil but Toulon could now theoretically reach a second successive final without leaving France.

While the final is due to be played in Cardiff on 24 May there will be no Welsh representation in either the Heineken or the Amlin Challenge Cup knockout stages for the second successive season.

Add it all together and Clermont, whose head coach Vern Cotter is leaving in the summer to take charge of Scotland, must still be regarded as favourites to claim this year's European crown, a prize which has somehow eluded them since the tournament's inception in 1996. Last year's beaten finalists had to contend with heavy rain and a partially waterlogged pitch on Sunday but still managed to score four tries in overcoming Racing Métro 28-3.

Had they not managed the bonus point they would have been away to Toulouse in the last eight, but two tries by Gerhard Vosloo and the all-important fourth, scored by the prop Vincent Debaty with 14 minutes left, ensured instead that Leicester will have to travel to a ground which holds few fond recent memories. Their last two visits, in 2009–10 and 2011–12, have yielded two defeats and a total of 70 points conceded. "It's not a nice place for opposition teams to come. We like it that way," warned Cotter.

A repeat of last year's final between Toulon and Clermont would certainly be no surprise. An improving Munster side, however, have an encouraging home quarter-final draw against Toulouse, a repeat of the 2008 final, courtesy of a ruthless 38-6 win over Edinburgh. The fist-pumping celebration of their captain Peter O'Mahony when he touched down in the 57th minute to clinch a try bonus point underlined its wider significance, with Munster having won all but one of the seven previous quarter-finals they have staged at Thomond Park.

Until Clermont completed their part of the bargain, it had been possible that Leinster would have to travel to Limerick for an all-Irish encounter. Instead Brian O'Driscoll and friends are heading to the Mediterranean to face Toulon, offering neutrals the bonus of one last contest between O'Driscoll and his former Lions team-mate Jonny Wilkinson.

Toulon have yet to lose a Heineken Cup fixture at home. Ulster, similarly, have history on their side. The last time they had a home quarter-final they went on to win the whole tournament, although that famous success in 1999 has never been repeated. They did reach the final two seasons ago and are currently the only unbeaten side left in this year's competition. It also means that three Irish, three French and two English sides will be involved in the last eight, although it is a different story in the Amlin Challenge Cup.

There will be two all-English quarter-finals – London Wasps v Harlequins and Sale Sharks against Northampton – with Bath also hosting Brive in a fixture which revives distant memories of the 1998 Heineken Cup final.

Gloucester have also claimed a place in the last eight courtesy of a bonus-point win in Perpignan. Among their try-scorers was Jonny May, a candidate for England's starting XV against France in Paris on 1 February, who contributed a spectacular 80-metre individual try.

One definite nonstarter at the Stade de France, however, will be the French captain Thierry Dusautoir, whose season has been ended prematurely after he ruptured a biceps tendon during Toulouse's 16‑6 win over Zebre.

Pascal Papé is now favourite to regain the captaincy, while the coach Philippe Saint-André must also find a replacement for the injured Perpignan winger Sofiane Guitoune. The Toulon back-rower Virgile Bruni is set to be called up as Dusatoir's replacement.

The draws

Heineken Cup quarter-finals Ulster v Saracens; Clermont v Leicester; Toulon v Leinster; Munster v Toulouse

Heineken Cup semi-finals Ulster/Saracens v Clermont/Leicester; Toulon/Leinster v Munster/Toulouse.

Heineken Cup semi-finals to be played at venues designated by ERC

Amlin Challenge Cup quarter-finals Bath v Brive; London Wasps v Gloucester; Stade Français v Harlequins, Sale Sharks v Northampton

Amlin Challenge Cup semi-finals London Wasps/Gloucester v Bath/Brive; Sale Sharks/Northampton v Stade Français v Harlequins