Warren Gatland spoke this week about the psychological advantage the winner of his Wales side's encounter against England at Twickenham on Sunday will gain for next year's World Cup pool match between the sides at the same venue.
Defeat for Wales would all but end their prospects of an unprecedented third successive Six Nations title, while for England it would mean a fourth straight defeat against the men in red, something they have not suffered since the 70s. Since Stuart Lancaster took over as head coach after the 2011 World Cup, they have beaten every tier-one nation with the exception of South Africa and Wales, although they drew against the former in 2012.
Gatland, Lancaster's opposite number, also pointed out that England's push for the title was all the more impressive given the number of players they have been missing through injury, including some of his Lions squad in Australia last year in Manu Tuilagi, Alex Corbisiero, Geoff Parling, Tom Croft and, latterly, Dan Cole. Wales have been more fortunate: Jonathan Davies returns in the centre this weekend after missing the opening three rounds while the second row Ian Evans received a long ban just before the start of the tournament.
Gatland warned his players after the 26-3 defeat to Ireland last month that many of them needed to salvage their Test careers in the next match against France, but while Lancaster has found strength in depth in virtually every position – although fly-half is a notable exception, with George Ford untried at international level – Wales's pool is shallower and they lack recognised cover in a number of areas. They look less insured against defeat on Sunday than their opponents.
"I think Wales have a better first team than England and I expect us to beat them," said the former wing JJ Williams, who played at Twickenham in 1976 and 1978, the last time Wales won consecutive matches at there. "When it comes to a second team, well, we do not have one. If anything happens to players like Leigh Halfpenny, George North, Adam Jones and Toby Faletau, we do not have anyone to replace them, and that is a worry with the World Cup in mind.
"We had a wing in the centre and a full-back on the wing against France. We got away with it in a much improved performance after Ireland, but the French were awful and it is difficult to know how much to read into that victory. England will be far stronger and more resourceful opponents, and if some have gone overboard about their performances this year – their wings are raw and I am not convinced by Billy Twelvetrees at 12 – they are prepared to have a go and they do not panic when they fall behind."
The former England centre Simon Halliday said this week that he felt Wales had become flaky. "The half-backs are very average, the front five were dismantled by Ireland and the back three have misfired," he said. "Halfpenny is possibly distracted by his impending move to France and North seems less hungry than he should be at this stage in his career. If England can stop the Welsh centres then there is no plan B. Despite traditional pre-match plaudits for past Welsh performances, the English coaching staff know their opponents' limitations."
Williams agrees with the final part of Halliday's analysis. "We are a safety-first side," he said. "There is no room now for James Hook, even on the bench, and I find that sad because he is an instinctive player who provides something different to the hard-running approach. Gatland has done superbly in his six years with Wales but we are like the old New Zealand, rarely taking risks and playing little rugby in our own half.
"If we did lose at Twickenham – and I do not think we will because we are better all round than England – Gatland would be forced to re-evaluate ahead of the World Cup. There would be no panic because there is a long time before the start of the tournament, but six of our seven fixtures in between this year's Six Nations and next are against the major southern hemisphere teams. It would be a case of tweaking, and not just players and tactics."
Williams added: "The coaching team has been together for a long time and it may be time for a fresh voice. I would like to see us be more clever in the way we play; I like the way England are prepared to run the ball from deep and we should use Halfpenny, a dangerous attacking player, in the way they make the most of Mike Brown's ability."
Gatland feels that one advantage Wales have this weekend is experience. If the current team survive until the World Cup, they will have a combined total of around 1,000 caps, even without the scrum-half Mike Phillips, who has been relegated to the bench. "We have to take confidence from that and I think we can draw on that more than the Welsh involvement with the Lions last year," he said.
A repeat of the performance and result in Dublin would see the value of experience questioned. "We have not been at our best this season," said Williams, "and because we have yet to find a way of beating New Zealand, South Africa and Australia, who can all cope with our power game, the Six Nations has become our target.
"We will be competitive in the World Cup, although with Australia in our group we will probably have to beat England. But looking further ahead makes me worried.
"I was working in a school in the Rhondda recently and a teacher told me that hardly any of the boys were playing rugby. It is a traditional rugby hotbed, but they had become Cardiff City fans and preferred football. Wales's success is papering over some large cracks and when it comes to winning it is not just Twickenham that counts, but the hearts and minds of the young."
