Mayday, Mayday! It is meant to be a distress signal but, for most rugby union players in Europe, 1 May is the sweetest of dates. The winter's slog is almost done, the lads' holidays to the States are booked, the sun loungers await. All that remains is one last push on the firmer grounds of early summer. These are the best of times to be a pro, particularly if your team can still lift a trophy and you have a contract safely tucked away for next year.
The fast and furious run-in is enjoyable for most supporters, too, but less so for those at the bottom of the table or the vast majority of coaches. Take Mark McCall of Saracens, Jim Mallinder of Northampton and Mike Ford of Bath. All could still end up with two pieces of silverware or, potentially, none. If it is the former their CVs will proclaim them as the sagest of gurus. It will be another tiresome summer of what ifs and maybes if it is the latter.
The trick is to stay focused, think smart, ignore all distractions and finish with a roar. If the Premiership final were this weekend you would have to back Saracens, such is the momentum they have now established. History, however, suggests they will find it tricky, such are the strains of fighting on two fronts at the end of such a long season. The last English team to manage a twin Premiership-Heineken Cup success were London Wasps in 2004 and they did so thanks to a remarkable late flurry. Front-runners can often be vulnerable. How many, at this point last year, would have backed Castres to be French Top 14 champions rather than the two all-powerful European finalists Toulon or Clermont Auvergne? It could yet happen in England this year if Sarries are not careful.
Defeating Toulon could even prove the less complicated half of the equation. With their lineout nous, defensive aptitude, all-round fitness and shrewd kicking game, Sarries have the game and intensity to make the defending champions sweat even more in Cardiff on 24 May than they did against a gallant Munster in Marseille. On the home front, though, there is the nagging memory of their defeat to a fired-up Northampton in last year's Premiership semi-final. Few saw that coming, a source of justifiable hope for their rivals this time.
In that respect two vital games loom this weekend: Bath v Northampton on Friday night and Sale v Leicester the following day. Bonus-point wins for Bath and Leicester would secure both sides their places in the last four, regardless of what fifth-placed Harlequins do at Exeter. A bonus-point victory for Bath and away defeats for Tigers and Quins could even confirm the semi-final pairings with a round to spare.
Saracens, having beaten Bath home and away and hammered Leicester 49-10 in Hendon in December, will publicly insist they do not care who they face. But Leicester have finally overcome their injury problems and are perhaps the chasing side best avoided in the last four. If they can finish above Bath in third place the Tigers would not be panic-stricken about heading back down the M1 to Franklin's Gardens, having won there only a month ago. If not, the Saints could end up facing Bath three times within a month, the two clubs having earned places in the Amlin Challenge Cup final the week after the Premiership semis.
Having tipped Saracens and Northampton to finish first and second respectively at the beginning of the season, it is only fair to stick with them now. There is a question mark, though, over the Saints ability to finish the season as strongly as they started it; Leicester, in Manu Tuilagi, Niki Goneva and Ed Slater, possess three of the country's most in-form individuals entering the closing stretch and, unlike the three other clubs currently in the top four, are free to place all their eggs in one basket.
Even Sarries could yet be vulnerable – assuming they do reach the final – should Toulon's big runners flatten one or two of their key men at the Millennium Stadium the week before. International coaches such as Stuart Lancaster, meanwhile, can only cross their fingers and pray.
It makes for a fascinating climax and the Pro 12 promises to be no different. Leinster hold the inside line but Glasgow's final two games are both against Italian opposition, giving them every chance of a home semi-final draw. They have won their last six matches, boast an excellent defence and both their games – one won, one lost – versus Leinster this year have been close. Could they become the first Scottish team to win the competition? The odds must still favour Leinster but, having just won the 1872 Cup by beating their neighbours Edinburgh, the Warriors have their own double to pursue. The month of May seldom unfolds entirely as people expect.
Call of duty
All those empty seats at Twickenham for the Saracens-Clermont semi-final will be thrown into even sharper relief this weekend when the annual Army v Navy match at Twickenham attracts its usual 70,000 plus gathering. Let us hope the new Swiss-based organisers swiftly get to grips with the European semi-final conundrum and ensure future big games are not staged in such echoing amphitheatres. There were various reasons on this occasion – the Rugby Football Union saw an easy opportunity to pocket a tidy sum from European Rugby Cup Ltd for the hire of the stadium while Saracens reckoned the ground would be the best place to ambush their opponents – but the sport needs to showcase the best of itself more consistently. What about giving home advantage to the side which has scored most tries en route? Or even holding both semi-finals on consecutive days in the same neutral city, named six months in advance? Barcelona or Milan anyone? What a fiesta that could be.
Prediction of the week
Bath v Northampton. As outlined above, these two sides could be sick of the sight of each other by the end of May. A win would guarantee Northampton a home semi-final draw but there is even more riding on it for Bath, beaten 43-25 at Franklin's Gardens just after Christmas. With Nick Abendanon in flying form, they are desperate to secure their play-off place and score a psychological point or two. Bath by three.
