The list is long and depressing. Olly Morgan, Hugo Southwell, Andy Hazell, Rory Lawson, Will Skinner, Olly Kohn, Chris Whitehead, Tom Hayes, James Hanks … as the season draws towards its end the number of good men who, as a consequence of injury, will not be lacing up their boots in the Premiership next season continues to rise.
The latest figures compiled by the Rugby Players' Association suggest the trend is unlikely to be reversed any time soon. "Statistically we have seen an increase in enforced retirements in the last three years," says David Barnes, the RPA's rugby director. "There were 13 retirements in 2010-11 and 20 the following season. It was 22 last year and we're at 24 so far this year. These are contracted players who have been advised by a specialist they can no longer continue their careers."
The attrition rate, in other words, has almost doubled in three years. For every fulfilled veteran such as the 37-year-old George Chuter, who step away of their own volition, there are dozens less fortunate.
According to Barnes, those who fondly imagine they will sign on at 18 and play Premiership rugby until they are 35 need to wake up to reality. Exeter Chiefs, for example, have lost three forwards to enforced retirements this season. "We haven't seen much difference in people having one-off severe injuries," Barnes says. "What we are seeing is the accumulation of a career in sport. That is what is causing retirements.
"It's the exposure to the constant hits – which are getting bigger – and the physicality of the game which is having an effect on bodies. The hits are just incredible., aren't they? We certainly believe we are seeing a reduction in career span due to the physicality of the sport and, to some extent, the calibre of the players coming through from the academy structure."
Having been forced to retire on medical advice himself, albeit at 34, Barnes knows his subject. Even the removal of the scrum "hit" this season has not yet resulted in an obvious decline in front-row retirements.
It is not quite as bad as American football, where the average pro career span in certain positions is fewer than four years, but the age profile is changing. "You're only going to see some very rare people going through until their mid to late 30s," Barnes says. "You just can't continue for as long as you used to be able to. Talk to agents and it is also becoming more common for a player in his mid to late twenties to be overlooked in favour of a younger player. It's becoming a hard market place; to get through a whole career is increasingly a challenge. Nearly every prop I played with or against has had a neck operation or needs one." That last sentence is perhaps the starkest quote of the season.
"Everyone can see that rugby, at the top end, is becoming an ever more extreme sport. They know it demands particular resilience. What they still don't know is what physical shape the first generation of pro union players will be in when they hit 60. Hence the dark shadow of the concussion debate, which increasingly hovers over every contact sport.
"It's good that players are a bit more aware about concussion but it is definitely the biggest issue facing the game moving forward," adds Barnes. "That applies in every sport, not just rugby. We need to understand more about what we're doing to our bodies. In American football they have limited the amount of contact training they do outside games. It's regulated, it's restricted and they only have a certain number of sessions a year. Maybe that's something rugby union needs to consider. It would keep the game on the Saturday as it is now but reduce exposure to hits during the week.
"We're always looking to improve the minimum standards of care. The exposure to hits all the way through your career is concerning. The turnover rates in academies are massive, although not just because of injury. Somewhere around 20-30% of academy players per year will lose their contracts. We need to continue to be vigilant in all kinds of areas."
Barnes, as it happens, is also heading off to pastures new. After 11 years of involvement with the RPA he is leaving for a new career in financial services. Before he departs, he is determined to hammer home the message that all players should have something other than rugby in their lives. "Some clubs are very good at building time into the schedule for their players' personal development. Others won't encourage it. We want all players to get involved in things which will develop them as people and help them get careers afterwards."
For such as Lee Thomas, Paul Emerick, Brett Deacon, Tane Tu'ipulotu, Andrew Higgins, Ollie Phillips, Andy Titterrell and Carlo del Fava, that next phase has now arrived. Good luck to them all, as well as the other old stagers – Sébastien Chabal, Dimitri Yachvili, Jonny Wilkinson, Brian O'Driscoll etc – who are bowing out elsewhere. If you happen to encounter a stray, former rugby player limping down your street, be nice to him.
Premiership player of the year
This week sees the announcement of the Aviva Premiership Player of the Year, possibly slightly prematurely given the knockout phase has yet to commence. There is a strong shortlist, comprising three Bs – Dan Braid, Mike Brown and Jacques Burger – two Pacific Island stars – Niki Goneva and Samu Manoa – plus Worcester's admirable Chris Pennell. Twelve tries in 17 games for Goneva make him hard to ignore while Burger's defensive brilliance has been impossible to miss. For me, though, it has to be Brown,a rock for club and country who has enjoyed the season of his life.
Prediction of the week
RaboDirect Pro 12 semi-finals. Let us ponder the Premiership semis for a few more days and instead look at the Pro12 final four. Tipping against Ulster is usually unwise but Brian O'Driscoll's scriptwriter is surely not going to allow him to bid farewell in a mere semi-final. Glasgow's defence and increasingly fluent recent form, not to mention their desire to become the first Scottish winners of the competition, may also be just enough to edge out Munster and set up an intriguing Irish/Scottish final showdown.
