Saracens part two. Last week Harlequins failed to solve the puzzle; this week it is the turn of Toulon and Jonny Wilkinson.

The problem for any side playing Mark McCall’s men is that they face the most suffocating of offensive defences. Last week Harlequins appeared to have an answer and were doing well for 40 minutes but when Saracens upped the ante, as they do, the legs ran out.

Twenty unanswered points in a Premiership semi-final says a lot about Saracens and their ability to stick to Plan A. However, Saturday at Cardiff in the Heineken Cup final they meet a team who have similarly been imposing themselves on sides. The difference is that whereas Saracens are as big a threat without the ball, Toulon march along more offensive lines. The winners could be the side who blink first.

Both Saracens and Toulon play simple games. Saracens deny space and rob teams of time to do anything constructive; Toulon batter and batter until the door opens, the man with the key being the man of the moment, Wilkinson, who goes into the final knowing he has just two games left in a remarkable career.

Ask guys who have played alongside Wilkinson and both backs and forwards revel in the fact that he rarely makes mistakes and always earns the reward their labours have earned. It may be his left boot gets them into areas where they want to play or that one of his pinpoint wide passes, off left or right hands, opens up space, but the more cerebral see a wonderful ability to soak up vast amounts of information, process it on the hoof and then come up with answers without waiting for word from the coaching bench.

Backs and forwards may have competing demands or voice varying fears and worries, but from a very early age Wilkinson has had an almost computer-like facility to find answers. As he’s got older, so he has become better which is a good thing because on Saturday no puzzle comes bigger. It’s not that Saracens’ system is without flaws, far from it. If a side commits so many defenders in such a small area there must be spaces on the field. It’s just finding a time and a way to get there.

The challenge is obvious. Saracens’ crowded gain line leaves the full-back Alex Goode to cover an enormous amount of space; Wilkinson has to find those spaces and sew seeds of doubt in Saracens’ minds.

Nick Evans did well in the first half last Saturday but Saracens are unlikely to repeat the generosity of having two men in the sin-bin, so Wilkinson will rely heavily on a fast, precise service from his scrum-half. That’s part of the problem – were Pierre Mignoni still doing the job, rather than coaching, then I’d have no doubt. However, the man in the No9 shirt is now Sébastien Tillous-Borde and one has to hope, for Toulon’s sake, that mentor leaves pupil in no doubt that he should leave the decision-making to the man standing outside him.

So, how will it play out? My guess is that it will be tight; Wilkinson, standing deep and looking to find those spaces with his boot or standing flat and launching Mathieu Bastareaud with passes out the back which give the centre 10 paces or so to get up a head of steam. Not that Bastareaud is just a bulldozer; these days he not only bashes holes but also manipulates space with clever footwork. He’s also become quite an operator at the breakdown, not as polished perhaps as Steffon Armitage, but good enough to figure high in the tournament statistics.

Anyway, Wilkinson will launch Bastareaud and assorted big men – and Toulon have plenty – in the hope of (circa 2003 with England) winning a steady flow of penalties.

Last year at Twickenham, Saracens conceded too many in their own half and Wilkinson kicked the lot. In fact, he didn’t miss during the knockout stages and, while not quite so devastating this time, he’s still up near 80%, so if Saracens’ work at the breakdown displeases the referee Alain Rolland, expect Toulon to keep their title.

It is how Toulon go about their work. The drip, drip of points conceded forcing sides to ditch Plan A and the comfort zone for riskier options. That’s when Toulon hope to hammer home their advantage.

This season, however, there have been times when they failed to build on that tactical foundation. Against Munster in the semi-final, for example, Jonny did his stuff but when the acceleration came after the break, Munster stood firm. In fact after 10 minutes of pressure, they struck back through Simon Zebo and Toulon doubts set in.

An eight-point gap at the whistle looks safe enough but that was after two more Wilkinson kicks had settled the nerves. And remember that was the same day that Saracens dismantled Clermont Auvergne, another side forced to ditch Plan A.

So who will be the first to blink in Cardiff? My guess is that it will be close for at least 50, possibly 60 minutes, but by Saturday night we will be celebrating the first English champions since Wasps seven years ago.