There will be no Welsh involvement in the RaboDirect Pro12 play-offs, just as none of the four regions made it to the knockout stage of the Heineken and Amlin Challenge Cups or even the last four of the LVCup. Ospreys were the last to fall out of contention in the league after their defeat by Zebre last Thursday.
The plight of the regions is summed up by their combined record against Zebre this season, a side that had not won a league or Heineken Cup match before the start of the campaign. None of the four has achieved the double over the team that was, before the visit of Ospreys, lying at the bottom of the table and Cardiff Blues lost home and away. Their combined record of three wins, two draws and three defeats in eight matches contrasts with the four Irish provinces' return of eight victories out of eight.
None of the three regions that took part in the Heineken Cup this season had a better than 50% record in their group, while two have qualified for the Rugby Champions Cup; as Ospreys and the Scarlets have done by finishing outside the top four of the Pro12, they will be among the lowest seeds when the draw is made next month and destined to feature in demanding groups.
The regions hope this month – and they will have time to spare after this weekend, which will mark the end of the season for all of them – will mark the end of their long negotiations with the Welsh Rugby Union over a participation agreement to replace the one that runs out at the end of next month but such is the shattered relationship between the two groups that whatever is signed will amount to no more than words: the vital element of trust, present in England, will be missing. It will be more of a truce than a treaty.
The WRU is likely to end up with a deal that will demand a greater financial commitment compared to a year ago, when the regions were told that the midway point of the deal did not provide an opportunity to renegotiate terms. The quartet's costs had increased, not least because of the wage inflation Wales's success from 2011 had helped to ignite, but they were told the relevant clause only allowed them to pull out of the agreement, not renegotiate its terms.
From the outside, the WRU's stance seemed to be that as the regions had nowhere to go, locked into the Pro12 and unable to play in a cross-border tournament without the union's permission, it was under no obligation to make concessions. The regions felt their options were to sign an agreement that would amount to the longest suicide note in history or go to the high court to win the right to self-determination, knowing that defeat would spell oblivion.
Never mind that the priority should be creating a partnership between the governing body and its professional teams as a prelude to addressing the issues at grassroots level, which go far beyond throwing spare cash around.
Rugby union's claim to be the national sport of Wales looks spurious when participation and spectator statistics are carefully examined. Wales's success under Warren Gatland has masked underlying problems that need a consensual approach to resolve, not the confrontational stand taken by a centralist WRU that appears resolved to change everything but itself.
A working party on constitutional reform has reported this year but it is highly unlikely there will be radical change to a board of directors that, in essence, is the same as the one that operated in the amateur era, when it was called the general committee. An independent non-executive director has been proposed, along with a female member, but the system of electing the vast majority of representatives by district will remain.
The WRU's board should reflect the regional system it created 11 years ago. Its policy of accruing power to the centre is making the game elitist and undemocratic. The Rugby Paper reported this week that clubs are angry at plans to reform the league system, not only the policy of making it regional to reduce travelling but a lack of consultation.
One club official said that the mood of the clubs was one of anger and despair. "As a club-led organisation, the WRU cannot impose something on us without discussing it with us at the very least," said John Manders, of Old Illtydians. "There is hardly a week that goes by in Wales without a club being lost and the change to the league structure will have massive consequences. I have spoken to a large number of clubs who are in sheer panic at what could happen in terms of not being able to field a team."
The principle behind the change is sound, to make rugby at community level local to encourage participation and support, but just as the regions have grown sick of being the patient to the WRU's doctor, so many in the grassroots are ready to rip up the prescription. David Moffett, the former WRU group chief executive who returned to Wales earlier this year with the aim of becoming the chairman of the union, may have less of a problem to secure the 32 clubs he needs to call an emergency general meeting.
Moffett published a manifesto last month that concisely outlined the issues facing the game in Wales, pointing out that the regions and the clubs were united by a common purpose. When the regions refused to sign an extension of the participation agreement last December, they looked isolated and vulnerable but the creation of the Rugby Champions Cup, a tournament they backed and the WRU fiercely opposed, has consolidated their position. They have, at last, found strength in unity.
The regions have lost a number of players to French and English clubs in the last couple of seasons, operating on the lowest playing budgets in the Six Nations and without England's policy of only considering players for international rugby who are earning their livings outside the country under exceptional circumstances.
It is a policy Wales used to have and the agreement being discussed with the WRU includes a dual contract for national squad players. The purchasing power of the English and French clubs, boosted by the European Cup deal, will put added strain on the Pro12 countries, which is why the WRU and the regions have to work together in partnership and in trust. The mass migration is having an impact on the national team, diluting the club environment developed by Gatland.
Consensus, not conflict; the Ian Ritchie approach, neither soft nor hard but fair, listening as well as talking. Regional Rugby Wales is in the process of appointing a new chief executive following the retirement of Stuart Gallacher. The WRU needs a change at the top. It lost the argument over Europe and it has lost its regions. The time has come for a rugby devolutionist.
