It is coming, no question. Sooner rather than later, Stuart Lancaster’s England will win a major Test in the southern hemisphere and this latest frustrating near miss will assume a different complexion.
There is a bigger picture in terms of next year’s Rugby World Cup and, by most other measures, Lancaster’s side are in decent shape. All they need is the final validation an away victory over the All Blacks always brings.
So how exactly do Lancaster and co go about levelling the series in Dunedin? New Zealand will surely be better then they were in Auckland, despite the anticipated injury-related absence of Kieran Read and Israel Dagg, but England can now whistle up an impressive amount of additional cavalry from Northampton and Saracens. Half a dozen changes in personnel are likely, with Danny Care and Owen Farrell set to resume their half-back partnership and Courtney Lawes returning to the second row. Tom Wood for James Haskell on the blindside is also likely, leaving two or three other close judgment calls.
One is at hooker, where Rob Webber performed excellently, threw in expertly and generally did everything that was expected of him. Dylan Hartley has played less than one full game since his return from injury and may have to settle for a place on the bench, where he also began last month’s final at Twickenham. England need slightly more second-half impact in big games anyway and it would have the extra benefit of emphasising that no one has an automatic right to a red rose jersey these days.
A similar scenario is possible at No8, where Billy Vunipola would normally expect to come straight back into the starting XV. Even at full bore, however, he faces a struggle to oust Ben Morgan, the latter having produced the best performance of his international career in that position.
The idea of having Vunipola on the bench for the Dunedin showdown would appeal, in terms of the galvanising physicality he offers, with Geoff Parling’s lineout excellence also available if required.
Which leaves the midfield and left wing, areas where Lancaster is still sifting his best options. Billy Twelvetrees may have been the first-choice 12 in the Six Nations but Kyle Eastmond did his cause plenty of good at the weekend. He, Burns and Manu Tuilagi formed a complementary triangle but Farrell, Twelvetrees and Tuilagi boast an impressively broad range of skills as well.
In addition, Luther Burrell and Brad Barritt have never let down England. Talk about quarts and pint pots. The case for playing Tuilagi on the wing may well intensify. For all his power – and, once again, it took a lot of All Blacks to stop him – he is not a distributor of genius and could potentially be even deadlier surging in off the wing down the 10 or 12 channels.
That might be tough at some stage on Jonny May, who has a spark that tends to repay the faith of any coach who perseveres with him, but England are still seeking a better balance between their creators and finishers.
What about Care and Farrell at nine and 10, Twelvetrees or Eastmond at 12 and Burrell at 13, with Tuilagi and Marland Yarde on the wings? Is Chris Ashton worth another sniff? What happens if the electric Christian Wade and Anthony Watson tear the house down this autumn, along with Jack Nowell?
And how about Nathan Earle, the emerging young star of the England Under-20 side, who have made a highly promising start to the defence of their Junior World Championship?
Add it all up and, ultimately, England should not spend too long dwelling on the disappointment of Saturday. Throw in Alex Corbisiero, Tom Croft, Dan Cole, Tom Youngs – all series-winning Lions – Mako Vunipola, George Ford and Danny Cipriani, not to mention the Armitage brothers, Delon and Steffon, marooned in Toulon, and Lancaster has increasing talent at his disposal, all of it fully aware mediocrity will not suffice.
If anything, the pressure is now on New Zealand. They have a 15-match winning streak to protect, only two short of equalling the world record for consecutive wins for a major union, but the last three victories – against England twice and Ireland in Dublin – have been uncomfortably close.
They look a different team when Read and Dan Carter are around; early season rust and England’s defensive pressure could not entirely explain away a performance significantly short on world champion pedigree.
Had it not been for some odd calls from Nigel Owens, the fallible hands of Davey Wilson in open play and a costly 70th-minute fumble by Ben Youngs, which effectively altered the game’s complexion, the All Blacks might have lost by 10 points – and could not have complained had they done so. Their 78th-minute game-clinching try from Conrad Smith showed resourcefulness, with Aaron Cruden bravely taking a quick tap penalty rather than opting to go for the posts, but England were down to 14 men at the time, with Yarde in the sin-bin.
It might also have been a different story had Ma’a Nonu been given a yellow card for impeding Haskell as he looked to support Chris Robshaw’s clean early break or if Mike Brown had clung on, with the line gaping, in the first quarter. Jerome Kaino did fumble a possible All Black try in the second half but a missed Burns drop goal just before half-time and a couple of highly debatable penalty awards punished by Cruden should also be added to the other side of the ledger.
Ifs, buts and maybes, of course, do not beat the All Blacks. They will be no consolation, either, to those English players who know their rugby history and may never have another chance to win at New Zealand’s foremost rugby fortress.
“We expected England to be a very good side and that’s what we got,” said a relieved Steve Hansen.
As the whole of New Zealand is starting to appreciate, the visitors will be better still by the autumn of 2015.
New Zealand Dagg (Barrett, 54); B Smith, C Smith, Nonu (Fekitoa, 60), Jane; Cruden, A Smith (Perenara, 70); Woodcock (Crockett, 60), Coles, (Mealamu, 60), Franks (Faumuina, 54), Retallick, Whitelock, Messam (Vito, 71), McCaw (capt), Kaino
Try C Smith. Penalties Cruden 5
England Brown; Yarde, Tuilagi, Eastmond, May ( Pennell, 79); Burns (Cipriani, 72), B Youngs (Dickson , 79); Marler, Webber (Gray, 70), Wilson (Thomas, 70), Launchbury (Attwood, 70), Parling, Haskell ( Johnson, 70), Robshaw (capt), Morgan
Penalties Burns 4, Cipriani
Referee N Owens (Wales). Att 47,195
