All tours to New Zealand have their moments of truth and England’s coaches know the opening Test of their best-of-three series against the All Blacks will shape everything that follows. Go down in a thorny heap of red rose inadequacy and Stuart Lancaster’s players will be deep in the fertiliser. Give their hosts a hurry-up in their backyard and squad morale really will be blooming by the time the 2015 Rugby World Cup kicks off.
A sterling performance in adversity, watched by a dozen supposed first-choice players still recovering from jet lag and last week’s Premiership final, would certainly plant niggling seeds of doubt in their rivals’ minds. They all know England are improving but few beat New Zealand on their own patch. The last European side to do so – in Dunedin five years ago – were France, who went on to reach the 2011 World Cup final. If England wish to rise to the challenge of a home World Cup, they need the inner steel which victory in the southern hemisphere would forge.
It scarcely helps that, as feared, the injured Danny Care will not be facing the haka, further reducing the number of established starters.
Yet the portents are not as bad as New Zealand’s record of 10 wins in the last 11 fixtures between the sides since 2003 might indicate. Of the last four contests at Twickenham, England have won one and lost the other three by decreasing margins of 13, 10 and eight points. They are getting closer and the next fortnight will tell Lancaster and his coaches precisely how far they still have to go. “We need to come to places like New Zealand to test ourselves and see where we’re at,” confirmed Lancaster’s assistant, Andy Farrell.
On the flip side, the All Blacks have won each of their last four home Tests against England by 17 points or more. There are 779 caps in their starting lineup alone, with Richie McCaw, Tony Woodcock and Ma’a Nonu possessing more between them than the England XV combined. Last year they became the first side in the professional era to go through a calendar year unbeaten and have not lost since England beat them 38-21 on that tumultuous day at Twickenham in 2012. The All Blacks will have 11 starting survivors at Eden Park on Saturday – England have seven – and motivation is never a problem.
England, accordingly, know there are three areas in which they simply have to perform. The first, inevitably, is around the contact area, where they have successfully blasted New Zealand off the ball before. Much has been made of what might transpire if Nonu starts running at the space between Kyle Eastmond and Freddie Burns but the All Blacks did not have to contend with Manu Tuilagi when they won 30-22 at Twickenham last November. England may not have all their best forwards available but the pack they have chosen is hardly small.
Second, they could do with ruling the skies, both at lineout and restarts. Joe Launchbury will be a key man in that respect but so is Bath’s Rob Webber in the absence of Dylan Hartley and Tom Youngs. It was lineout malfunctions that allowed New Zealand to wriggle free in the side’s most recent collision after England had led early in the final quarter and any repeat will be similarly costly. The throwing of Webber and the potential debutant Joe Gray, neither of whom have played much recent rugby, needs to be spot on.
Last, and by no means least, Chris Robshaw and co need to start well and maintain an unblinking sense of conviction throughout. In November they allowed New Zealand to establish a 14-point cushion within the first 18 minutes. Julian Savea, Kieran Read and Dan Carter, who collectively supplied the majority of their side’s points, are not around this time but there remains no shortage of other danger men in black.
In their dreams, nevertheless, England will hope to play at pace and unleash the powerful Marland Yarde, the Six Nations’ player of the year, Mike Brown, and a rampant Tuilagi in the right areas of the pitch. Eastmond can be electric in a bit of space and both Burns and his born-again understudy Danny Cipriani have everything to play for. “The people who don’t give us a chance don’t know the journey we’ve been on,” stressed Farrell. “We’ve been getting better fairly rapidly. This is another massive challenge – as big as it gets – but we’ll see if we can improve again.”
In the end it boils down to a word that has been constantly on the lips of the management – belief. If England tiptoe in fearing the worst they could be annihilated. If they charge out of the sheds and play as if their Test careers depend on it, which in some cases they do, it should be a game and a half. “Why wouldn’t they believe?” mused Farrell.” We don’t seem frightened of going to these places and giving it a good crack.”
As Ireland showed in that memorable game in Dublin seven months ago the All Blacks are not invincible. What a colossal result it would be, even so, if England could pull off one of the shock wins of recent times. A New Zealand win is priced in some quarters at the painfully short odds of 1-25 but few gave England a prayer before they drew 14-14 with South Africa in Port Elizabeth in the early days of Lancaster’s refreshing regime.
It would assuredly galvanise the series if New Zealand found themselves suddenly having to win both in Dunedin and Hamilton to reclaim the Sir Edmund Hillary trophy, with the visitors able to strengthen their hand with the likes of Hartley, Courtney Lawes, Tom Wood, Billy Vunipola, Owen Farrell and Luther Burrell. Just think of the ripples that would generate in Auckland Harbour, not unprecedented when Tuilagi is in town.
It is still easier to see the All Blacks going 1-0 up in the series but England will make them fight for it.
New Zealand
Dagg (Crusaders); B Smith (Highlanders), C Smith (Hurricanes), Nonu (Blues), Jane (Hurricanes); Cruden (Chiefs), A Smith (Highlanders); Woodcock (Blues), Coles (Hurricanes), Franks (Crusaders), Retallick (Chiefs), Whitelock (Crusaders), Messam (Chiefs), McCaw (Crusaders, capt), Kaino (Blues). Replacements: Mealamu (Blues), Crockett (Crusaders), Faumuina (Blues) Tuipulotu (Blues), Vito (Hurricanes), Perenara (Hurricanes), Barrett (Hurricanes), Fekitoa (Highlanders).
England
Brown (Harlequins); Yarde (Harlequins), Tuilagi (Leicester), Eastmond (Bath), May (Gloucester); Burns (Leicester), B Youngs (Leicester); Marler (Harlequins), Webber (Bath), Wilson (Bath), Parling (Leicester), Launchbury (London Wasps), Haskell (London Wasps), Robshaw (Harlequins (capt), Morgan (Gloucester). Replacements Gray (Harlequins), Mullan (London Wasps), Thomas (Bath), Attwood (Bath), Johnson (Exeter Chiefs), Dickson (Northampton), Cipriani (Sale Sharks), Pennell (Worcester).
Referee: N Owens (Wales).
