The last time Scotland hosted England two years ago, Murrayfield did its best impression of monsoon season in the tropics as Storm Ciara blew in and wrecked any hope of a spectacle. Lineouts were particularly hazardous – Scotland lost eight on their own ball – and kicking skywards was a lottery.
Saturday’s forecast is not quite as bad, but not good either. Heavy rain and strong winds are expected to buffet Edinburgh during the day. The gusts may have calmed to around 20mph by kick-off, but the likelihood of rain is still deemed to be 98%.
England coped marginally better in 2020, capitalising on a Stuart Hogg error to seal victory with an Ellis Genge try. But even if Saturday brings more inclement weather, the Scotland coach, Gregor Townsend, believes the lessons of that experience have already been learned, citing last year’s memorable Calcutta Cup victory at Twickenham as evidence.
“A lot of our players experienced that two years ago, and we referred to it a fair bit 12 months ago in terms of how we can take a different gameplan into wet conditions – like it was down at Twickenham last year,” he said. “I felt the team got their execution and decision-making spot on.”
While Townsend hopes the weather “doesn’t dictate the standard of rugby”, given the possibility of an arm-wrestle it is perhaps unsurprising he has opted for settled, experienced combinations after selecting from a position of rare strength.
With Jonny Gray fit again, Townsend might have restored the Exeter lock’s partnership with Scott Cummings which featured in seven straight Tests before injury intervened last year. Instead, the more experienced Grant Gilchrist is retained, the Edinburgh lock having played a key role alongside Sam Skinner in the epic last-day triumph over France in Paris and an autumn win against Australia.
“If anything, Sam Skinner is the player who should be the most disappointed to miss out,” said Townsend. “Grant Gilchrist is a key player for us and has been outstanding right through the last Six Nations and into November.”
Skinner at least has the consolation of a place on the bench. He is joined there by the prop Pierre Schoeman who, despite a smooth transition to Test rugby in the autumn, makes way for the returning Lion Rory Sutherland. Townsend believes Sutherland is in “great physical shape” despite his relative inactivity of late.
Townsend did consider including the “exceptional” Glasgow openside Rory Darge on the bench but ultimately opted for the equally in-form Magnus Bradbury as back-row cover, with Matt Fagerson preferred at No 8.
The centre Cameron Redpath, who excelled on his debut a year ago, was also “very close” to selection, but three games into his comeback after an eight-month lay-off it was felt further game time at Bath would be more beneficial to him.
The backline is unchanged from the one which finished the autumn series, with the one intriguing element the inclusion of the swashbuckling centre Sione Tuipulotu on the bench. “A lot of these guys have played really well in big victories, so they have the right to that jersey,” Townsend said. “We’ve got players that have been exceptional for Scotland, who we think are physically right and in form.”
Brushing off Eddie Jones’ assertion his side are “red-hot favourites” – “I’m not bothered who are favourites” – Townsend believes November form will count for little. “It is really about how we rebuild that cohesion, how you react to what the opposition is doing and how you react in pressure moments, and then find a way to win.”
