The 2023 Rugby World Cup is set to be the most competitive tournament in the sport’s history. The gap between the top 10 and some of the old “Tier 2” nations is closing significantly, as England have already been reminded by Fiji at Twickenham. From personal experience, I sense there are several potentially awkward underdogs out there, weighed down with few expectations and eager to upset the odds in France.
I was fortunate enough to play for the USA Eagles at the 2019 World Cup in Japan. When we played France in Fukuoka, we had Les Bleus on the precipice and were only 12-9 down approaching the final 10 minutes. If it hadn’t been for a late flurry, France would have been humiliated.
It is that desire to make World Cup history that drives the “Tier 2” sides on, as was the case when Japan shocked South Africa in the Brighton miracle in 2015 and Uruguay stunned Fiji last time.
We are already breaking new ground by welcoming Chile to their first World Cup. This comes as a personal dagger to the heart as the Eagles lost to them 52-51 on aggregate, an outcome which ensured they qualified in England’s pool. The South Americans have come on leaps and bounds, helped by their Santiago-based professional side, Selknam, playing in the Super Rugby Americas.
They come with zero expectation as the lowest-ranked team at the tournament, but I know from experience what can happen when losing doesn’t scare you. Bravery transcends fear. If Steve Borthwick’s men look like a side that are not gelling, the majority of Los Condores play with each other every week and will be as tight-knit as any team in the competition. Look out for their talented fly-half Rodrigo Fernández, whose solo effort against the USA last September claimed World Rugby men’s try of the year.
Our anguish continued when Portugal subsequently took the last qualification spot from the Eagles last November with a final penalty kick from their talisman scrum-half Samuel Marques. Let me be the first to warn Os Lobos’s upcoming opponents not to be remotely complacent against this swift-footed, talented and well-drilled side.
The head coach, Patrice Lagisquet, was an electric back in his day and has created an exciting Portuguese backline. They are rapid! Their back three, who mainly play in the French top leagues, have incredible depth with star runners Vincent Pinto, Raffaele Storti, Simão Bento and Manuel Cardoso Pinto all genuine threats. Then there is the outstanding full-back Nuno Sousa Guedes, who has the ability to sidestep anyone in a phone box.
I predict that a man like Guedes will shine at this World Cup and find himself staying in France with a Top 14 or Pro D2 contract. He is not only a devastating attacker but also a fine footballer, further helped by former England kicking coach Jon Callard, who is part of the Portuguese coaching group. After just losing to Australia A in their World Cup warm-up a couple of weeks ago, I can see Os Lobos picking up a first World Cup win.
Portugal’s opening game will be against Wales in Nice and while I believe Warren Gatland’s forwards will have the power upfront, Os Lobos will test their defence. Wales not only face Portugal but also Georgia, another potential banana skin, in their last group game.
Welsh fans will remember only too well the historic loss to the Lelos in November last year. Known for their power in the set piece, as displayed against Scotland a fortnight ago, the Georgians are long odds to get out of their pool but have the potential to cause a great upset. Throw the ever-improving Fijians into the mix and Pool C looks horrifyingly nerve-racking for Welsh and Australian fans!
I really do feel this will be the World Cup where we will all be talking about the Pacific Island teams. Having arguably underestimated them in the past, the leading sides in the world are now more aware than ever of what the islanders can bring.
I’ve played Test match rugby against Samoa and Tonga and my battered and bruised body afterwards was always testament to their physicality. However, the recent changes to World Rugby’s eligibility rules have taken these island nations to a wholly different level, with the likes of former Wallaby Christian Leali’ifano now playing for Samoa and ex-All Black superstar Charles Piutau suiting up for Tonga. These sides will still be classed as underdogs, but I think the addition of such experienced Test-match operators will make an enormous difference.
It makes Samoa a genuine threat to Borthwick’s squad in Pool D. These underdog sides are not expecting to win the World Cup but all of them will be aware that winning a couple of games could result in the golden ticket of automatic qualification for 2027. With this nothing-to-lose attitude and steadily growing self-belief, there could be more historic results on the horizon.
