With that, I leave you with the match report from Marseille and an even better explanation of the permutations. For all South Africa’s excellence and Tonga’s spirit this evening, it’s that p-word that will dominate the headlines and discussions for the next week!

Some of the permutations are better explained in this article. My head is hurting trying to work everything out.

Jonathan Leiper emails in to ask the key question:

So where does that leave us with the quarters from this group? What are the permutations?

Well, South Africa are now top by a single point (15, to Ireland’s 14). Ireland will go through as group winners if they beat Scotland. The Scots (currently on 10 points) need to win with a bonus point and by a 13-point margin against Ireland. That would see them go top on points difference, with Ireland qualifying if they two bonus points.

I think.

A nice moment after the game as players from both sides kneel down and wrap their arms around each other in a huge circle – a trademark display of rugby sportmanship.

Seven tries for South Africa, three for Tonga, with this Patrick Pellegrini effort arguably the most eye-catching and enjoyable of the night – particularly for the neutrals.

77 mins. Boos greet Luke Pearce’s whistle, which ends another Tongan attacking phase. That might be the end of their resistance tonight. South Africa would love another morale-boosting score before we close proceedings, I’m sure of that.

75 mins. It’s actually Tonga who look the more likely to score again in this contest, fantastic character being shown! For context, Ireland beat Tonga 59-16 and Scotland got a 45-17 win against them.

71 mins. Esterhuizen was harshly penalised for not releasing there … not sure there was ever a ruck given he was barely tackled. He offloaded nicely to Kwagga Smith who would have scored if the whistle hadn’t gone.

68 mins. Danger averted for South Africa, whose defence has largely stood up to the challenge tonight. Every team feels the force of facing Tonga, but the superior quality and experience of the Springboks has shown tonight.

67 mins. Six tries now, all of them converted, four by Pollard and two by Libbok. It’s turning into exhibition stuff from the reigning world champions now, but a great territory-finding kick from Havili stops the bleeding for now. The French crowd want another Tonga score and this is a decent chance of it.

62 mins. Lock Franco Mostert is among the replacements on for South Africa just after the hour mark. More power and height on the field for the Boks.

60 mins. You rather suspect these final 20 minutes could be quite punishing for Toutai Kefu’s tiring side, unless they can find some energy from somewhere. South Africa look hungry for points.

A positive right now: a penalty. Kicked into the corner by Havili.

57 mins. Unfortunately for Tonga, there’s little respite, with South Africa seemingly injected with new energy thanks to the fresh legs off the bench, as one of those players – Manie Libbok – sending it into the corner.

A huge ovation for Ben Tameifuna as he goes off. The Tonga captain has been exceptional tonight, a real force of nature at tighthead.

52 mins. I thought Eben Etzebeth was in trouble for a moment there. The crowd are certainly unhappy that he wasn’t sent to the sin bin for taking out Salesi Piutau in the air. The TMO told Luke Pearce to award a penalty and nothing more.

51 mins. That’s the end of Pollard’s evening. And it’s job done as far as he’s concerned, building his fitness nicely after a good while on the sidelines. Manie Libbok will take over at fly-half. Former Aussie international Adam Coleman is on from the Tongan bench.

“I’ll do the counting, thank you,” Luke Pearce tells a Tongan player as they voice their displeasure over some slow South African ball.

47 mins. Tonga had the put-in in front of their own posts and Reinach was penalised for being a little too keen in closing down … that offside call really lets the pressure off for the Springboks and Tonga can spin it wide from the resulting lineout. with Inisi kicking it deep.

45 mins. The South African front row replacements have started, with Nche and Coch taken off, the former for a HIA, so we’re told.

44 mins. It hasn’t taken South Africa long to start knocking on the door in this half. They’re being met with some resolute Tonga defence, mind, as Esterhuizen is shoved out into touch. That wasn’t quick enough from the Boks … it was telegraphed.

42 mins. Some nice hands from Tonga to work it wide, but Inisi’s attempt to grubber kick it down the flank sees the ball fly into touch. Back to the South African lineout, and they very quickly and fluently run it into midfield.

This was my favourite try of the first half. Gotta love a sneaky and speedy scrum-half, haven’t you?

A tweet that could well be a very accurate foreshadowing of the second half:

40 mins. South Africa hunt a score in the final phase of the half … they want that bonus point and they want it now. Good field position for it, too.

37 mins. Havili nudges another one into the corner after a penalty is awarded. They HAVE to score here. Surely.

36 mins. Tonga’s profligacy in promising areas will be something that’s really frustrating their head coach Toutai Kefu … can they make it count in the final few minutes of this half? You’d say they deserve more than just the three points.

33 mins. Three converted tries for South Africa, then. They’ll be targeting one more as a minimum for that precious bonus point, which could prove all-important. Then they’ll be eyeing a healthy points advantage.

29 mins. The TMO gets involved to have a look at a challenge from Augustine Pulu … head-on-head contact perhaps? Any sort of card would appear very harsh, given the scrum-half is on his knees at the time of making the tackle. Luke Pearce says no yellow card, just a penalty. Good call, that.

28 mins. La Marseillaise rings around … Marseille. Havili makes a mess of another clearance and it’s another SA lineout.

26 mins. Marvin Orie is the chosen catcher in South Africa’s lineout, and this latest take precedes a strong drive – well it looked strong until the penalty goes against the Springboks. Collapsing.

25 mins. Tonga get away with some more ambitious offloads in their own 22m zone .. and eventually skew a kick that is clear enough but doesn’t have the distance. Expect this to come back with some force, as Fourie chucks in the lineout.

22 mins. Two visits, two tries. Clinical stuff from the Springboks … and the Marseille crowd aren’t very happy with the officiating: two big calls went against Tonga in the build-up to that try, both completely justified, though, I must say.

19 mins. Ah, pressure well and truly released. Luke Pearce tells Tonga they were trying to buy a penalty and that’s that. South Africa smack it clear and they’ll have a chance to apply pressure of their own.

17 mins. Tonga hooker Paula Ngauamo finds himself out wide and he’s also nudged into touch – but the officials spotted a South African hand on that. The pressure remains on, can Tonga find a score here to really worry the Springboks?

15 mins. Another opportunity goes begging for Tonga, as Tameifuna is forced into touch thanks to some smart South African defending. They can clear their lines here.

14 mins. Paea picked up from the base of the scrum as Tonga continue to search for a gap in the line of green shirts, with another penalty advantage now. It’s booted wide looking for Inisi but he cannot quite there despite a catching error from Willie Le Roux. Back to another scrum.

11 mins. Tonga are inches from the South African line … last ditch stuff here from Jacques Nienaber’s side and they manage to hold up the white shirts, albeit illegally. Penalty under the sticks, what’s the right call here?

A scrum is the decision.

9 mins. Tonga spin it wide to Tuitavuki and they’ve won another penalty here at the breakdown, South Africa not rolling away. This time, they fancy the corner and a catch and drive of their own. Ambitious.

8 mins. Tonga are getting over the gain line with virtually every carry. We know all about the strength of their pack, but they’re throwing it wider every now and then too and making good ground. They’re in range again here … but Semisi Paea loses it and it’s hacked forward by Mapimpi – although there was a knock-on in there, so we come back for a Tonga scrum.

4 mins. Quick ball for South Africa orchestrated by Cobus Reinach at No 9 and when they get the penalty, the intention from Handré Pollard is very different – it’s kicked straight to the corner from the outside-half and a chance to catch and drive.

1 min. South Africa don’t deal with William Havili’s kick-off particularly well, so Tonga will have an early lineout and some good territory.

Some real emotion in that Tongan outfit during their anthem. This is their third successive match against a top tier nation at the 2023 World Cup … South Africa observe the Sipi Tau before kick-off. You get the sense that Tonga want to spoil the party tonight.

We’re almost ready for action in this one. Is it just a question of margin when it comes to a Springboks’ victory or can Tonga pull out something special in Marseille tonight?

The Springboks are under no illusions about Tonga’s danger man tonight:

A lovely email from Dan Zilic:

Watching from Germany, no coverage on public broadcasters or mainstream channels. The channel showing it though has invited Howard Carpendale to co-commentate, who is a 75-year-old South African singer who became famous in Germany in the 80s (had a number one hit) and is a bit of a legend and these random and unknown rugby presenters (unknown in the public, known in the tiny German rugby realm) have been talking about it all week. Match should be fun but I am kind of excited about this! Thanks for the live commentary & was really helpful while watching from France on holiday the last weeks!

Thanks for getting in touch Dan! I’m not sure my live commentary will stand up to Howard’s, though.

The Wallabies are still alive in this World Cup. Just.

Permutations! A bonus point victory for South Africa tonight will lift them to the top of Pool B – they’re on 10 points now, with Ireland currently top with 14 – and will probably be enough for them to secure a quarter-final place.

If Scotland beat Ireland with a bonus point next weekend – and the Irish pick up a losing bonus point – things will start to get complicated. We could feasibly end up with three teams locked on 15 points … then it comes down to points difference. So the Springboks might look to win and win with style if possible this evening, given their current points difference is inferior to that of Ireland and Scotland.

The big news in the build-up to this one is the return of Springboks’ fly-half Handré Pollard. The 65-cap outside-half was a late injury replacement to the South Africa squad and starts this game on the back of a 30-minute cameo for Leicester Tigers a fortnight ago, having been suffering with a calf injury. The 29-year-old kicked 22 points against England in the World Cup final four years ago and steps in for Manie Libbok tonight.

This is what Pollard said about his return to the biggest stage of all:

My expectations for myself are just going to be to express myself and enjoy it.

It should have only been about four weeks [out], but ended up being almost three months. It was a very frustrating time but that’s the body, that’s how it works. We tried our best to be fit as soon as possible but it didn’t work out.