How world’s top five shape up
No 1 Novak Djokovic After spending years demanding to be loved, in his dotage Djokovic has reverted to type, taking an evil genius’ glee in crushing the dreams of his younger rivals. And good though those rivals are, an 11th – ! – Aussie Open win feels inevitable because technically, physically and mentally, the champion is impregnable.
No 2 Carlos Alcaraz Alcaraz knows he can beat Djokovic in a major final, and these days Wimbledon plays like the hard courts found in Melbourne. But it’s difficult to hit winners with the tournament balls, which quickly fluff up and die – perfect for the man Alcaraz is seeded to meet in the final.
No 3 Daniil Medvedev Medvedev beating Djokovic in the 2021 US Open final was no fluke. His big-serving, hard-chasing game is perfect for acrylic surfaces – on grass and clay, his height makes him less surefooted – and only he can continually stick in rallies against Djokovic for as long as is necessary to win them.
No 4 Jannik Sinner Serves big enough and hits hard enough to contend – in particular, Alcaraz finds his power problematic – and believes he can do it, all the more so following a fine end to 2023. The big question is whether he’s able to unleash when kept on the move by Djokovic and Medvedev.
No 5 Andrey Rublev Though good at most things, he isn’t brilliant at anything, which is why he’s been unable to beat the best players on the biggest occasions. And there’s no indication he can remedy the situation – perhaps the reason he shed tears of frustration while losing to Medvedev at the Tour Finals.
Best home hope
Alex de Minaur Perhaps the fastest player ever, De Minaur has matured of late, adding patience, aggression and variety to his game. He’s still hamstrung by a forehand grip that restricts his ability to hit hard while telegraphing some of his shots, but already this year, he’s beaten Djokovic, Taylor Fritz and Alexander Zverev.
Best British hope
Jack Draper Though his breakthrough has been slowed by injuries, he’s healthy now, in the last four at Adelaide, and the full package: his swinging lefty serve is brutal, his forehand devastating, and his competitive spirit uncoachable. He’s not quite ready yet, but if he stays fit, he’s capable of winning Slams.
Best American hope
Ben Shelton Made the quarters in 2023, playing his second Grand Slam, then the semis at Flushing Meadow – where he beat Dominic Thiem, Tommy Paul and Francis Tiafoe. Which is to say his huge hitting works well on hard courts and he has the temperament required to perform on the biggest stages.
Big name most likely to crash out early
Stefanos Tsitsipas Endured a horrendous 2023 and looks to have been found out: his one-handed backhand, though aesthetic, is poor. He also sacked his dad, not a recognised coach, replaced him with Mark Philippoussis, also not a recognised coach, then sacked Philippoussis and brought back his dad, still not a recognised coach.
Outsider with best chance of glory
Andy Murray We had to do it! For the first time in who knows how long, Murray is fully fit having enjoyed a full pre-season, no one knows their way around a tennis court better, and no seed will relish him scurrying about the baseline or taunting them with judiciously applied drop-shots.
One to watch
Jerry Shang Flashy, charismatic and only 18, Shang is the son of a former footballer, Shang Yi, and a former table tennis player, Wu Na. The first Chinese man to win a match in Melbourne during the open era, last week he reached the semis in Hong Kong – beating Tiafoe in the process.
