Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday 4.30pm ET/9.30pm GMT)
What the Texans need to do to win: Head coach DeMeco Ryans has to be aggressive on defense. The Ravens’ last defeat, a 33-31 loss to Cleveland in November, provides the blueprint. Given time, Lamar Jackson will pick teams apart. But the Browns blitzed him 33.3% of the time on passing downs as they knocked him out of his comfort zone. Cleveland forced him into the only game this season in which he has thrown multiple interceptions, and he completed just 56.5% of his passes. Houston need to up their current blitz rate of 15.4%, otherwise Jackson will take everything they give him.
What the Ravens need to do to win: Jackson and Baltimore were No 1 seeds in the 2019 season … and promptly lost to the Tennessee Titans in their first game of the playoffs. They need to be every bit as dominant on both sides of the ball here as they were across the regular season to avoid a similar slip up. The Ravens’ defense is coming off a week’s rest and they generated a league-best 31 turnovers in the regular season. That, combined with the fact that CJ Stroud will be in much colder conditions in Baltimore than he is used to under Houston’s retractable roof, can help keep the demons at bay.
Key player: Derek Stingley Jr, CB, Texans. Houston gave up the fewest passing touchdowns in the regular season (17), owing to the trust placed in Stingley to track the opposition’s top receiver across the field. Stingley can box Zay Flowers out of the game, leading Jackson to hold on to the ball or to find checkdowns, which in turn create chances for sacks or tackles for a loss. Steven Nelson, who snagged an 82-yard pick-six that broke Cleveland’s back last week, is enjoying his finest year to date at age 30 on the other side of the backfield. That speaks to how Ryans has inspired a roster that is much greater than the sum of its parts.
Prediction: Texans over Ravens. Momentum may be a myth but Stroud and the Texans defense are going to test that theory. Ryans gets creative to catch the Ravens cold, leading Houston to their first AFC championship game.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (Saturday 8.15pm ET/Sunday 1.15am GMT)
What the Packers need to do to win: Matt LaFleur must not be afraid to target San Francisco’s strengths. Packers running back Aaron Jones can be too much to handle even for top run-stoppers and is peaking at the right moment, while the 49ers’ passing defense have been growing stronger since Chase Young joined the crew. Having to account for a full strength Jones opens up the option of play-fakes, which Jordan Love has excelled at since Green Bay’s revival from Week 9 onwards.
What the 49ers need to do to win: Protect Brock Purdy. San Francisco will feel as if they have all the pieces in place to stride past the Packers in an arguably easier contest than last year’s NFC championship game, where Purdy’s early exit with an elbow injury cost the Niners dear. The pressure is on left tackle Trent Williams to make sure Purdy stays healthy so he can let his ridiculously talented array of receivers go to work. Kyle Shanahan has been resting Williams from practice to make sure he is 100% ready.
Key player: Christian McCaffery, RB, 49ers. Green Bay’s soft run defense is there for the taking with McCaffrey in the mix. The prohibitive favourite for offensive player of the year raced the 49ers to the No 1 seed, carving up opponents in the receiving and run game. His elusive stop-and-go electricity accounted for 30% of San Francisco’s 6,773 offensive yards in the regular season. He will be at full power on Saturday after resting since New Year’s Eve.
Prediction: 49ers over Packers. Shanahan’s experienced point-scoring machine has too much firepower for Love’s young pretenders. Green Bay will keep it close but this is San Francisco’s year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (Sunday 3pm ET/8pm GMT)
What the Buccaneers need to do to win: Tampa need to win on both sides of the ball again to match their demolition of the Eagles. Baker Mayfield lit up Philadelphia’s secondary, as expected, but crucially made no serious mistakes. The Bucs have won six of their past seven to get here, the only defeat coming when Mayfield helped lose the turnover battle 4-0 by throwing two interceptions. The defense has to stay red hot too as across those seven games they gave the offense the perfect platform by conceding only 15 points a game. Tampa also have the benefit of experience to stop Detroit: seven of their starting 11 on defense won the Super Bowl with the Bucs in the 2020 season. They can use the know-how that stifled Patrick Mahomes in that Super Bowl to keep the clamps on Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St Brown.
What the Lions need to do to win: Do not change a thing. The Cowboys falling flat on their face gifted Detroit another home playoff game for Lions fans to devour while skipping a date with the 49ers. The noise was incredible against the Rams as was coach Dan Campbell’s moxie in calling a pass play for St Brown to ice the game when the safer bet was to run and punt. Just don’t let the result, if Green Bay upset San Francisco the night before, distract from getting the job done.
Key players: David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs, RBs, Lions. The difference between the Rams and Lions in the wildcard round was efficiency in the red zone created by running the ball. Detroit racked up three touchdowns from three trips while LA found nothing from their three. The Bucs have a great run defense – the Eagles were the latest to be stifled last week – but splashy long runs are not where Montgomery and Gibbs go to work. The pair’s pace and power, particularly lethal in short yardage situations, boosts the Lions’ ruthless red zone efficiency (Detroit score 65.7% of the time inside the 20-yard line, the second-best rate in the league).
Prediction: Lions over Buccaneers. Campbell’s energy whipping up the Ford Field crowd, mixed with the team’s on-field swagger, overwhelms Tampa Bay. Mayfield’s comeback year ends here, deafened by the Lions’ roar.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 6.30pm ET/11.3opm GMT)
What the Chiefs need to do to win: Look to Mahomes to lead the way. The quarterback has won 38 of 49 games away from home in the regular season, that’s the best winning percentage in NFL history among QBs who have played at least 14 on the road. The Chiefs’ highly skilled defense need to keep their tails up, knowing that if they can stymie Josh Allen then Mahomes has the quality and weight of sustained success to back them up. Mahomes was a postseason underdog in February last year and that turned out just fine.
What the Bills need to do to win: Buffalo need to keep Mahomes down. They did so in their 20-17 win over Kansas City in December, which the Bills used as a launchpad to take four vital wins from their last four games. The key throughout their late charge was taking opposing quarterbacks out of the equation. In that final quartet only one opposition receiver found the end zone, while opposing QBs averaged just 183 yards against them. Two of those four passers were Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott, the gold and bronze medalists in total yardage from this season. Including the easy takedown of Pittsburgh on Monday, the Bills defense has generated nine takeaways since beating the Chiefs. If they keep playing as fiercely, Allen will have an excellent shot at toppling Kansas City for the first time in three postseason attempts.
Key player: Josh Allen, QB, Bills. Buffalo’s linchpin dominated Pittsburgh. His 52-yard touchdown run on third down showcased how quickly he can put an opposition away when it matters. Allen’s early season struggles with pressure led to a multitude of intercepted passes but the quarterback has thrown 13 touchdowns while delivering a 96.7 passer rating when pressured, the NFL’s best figures per PFF. He had an easy ride against the TJ Watt-less Steelers, so will need to stay focused to handle everything the Chiefs and edge rusher George Karlaftis throw at him.
Prediction: Bills over Chiefs. Buffalo are owed one by the Chiefs in the postseason. Are you really going to bet against this version of Allen?
