Stage one, Saturday 29 June: Florence to Rimini, 206km

A first Grand Départ in Italy, ironically when cycling talent in this traditional heartland is vanishingly scarce. There will be barely any Italians on the start list and there is zero prospect of a repeat of Italy’s last overall win, Vincenzo Nibali in 2014. A dramatically hard opening stage is suited to the punchy talent of Giulio Ciccone; however, with three second category climbs, who would bet against Tadej Pogacar trying to gain an early advantage?

Stage two, Sunday 30 June: Cesenatico to Bologna, 199km

Today’s start is dedicated to Marco Pantani, 20 years after his death; the “Pirate”, winner of the Tour and Giro in 1998, grew up in Cesenatico, which has a museum and a statue dedicated to him. Today won’t suit the sprinters, with two ascents of the San Luca climb in the final 32km. It’s a punchy ascent used in the Giro dell’Emilia, won in 2023 by Primoz Roglic, and it is perfect for Mathieu van der Poel.

Stage three, Monday 1 July: Piacenza to Turin, 230.5km

After Gino Bartali on Saturday, Pantani on Sunday, if it’s Monday it must be a stage that tips its hat to Fausto Coppi, passing through Tortona, home town of the campionissimo. As far as the action goes, today things should settle down – briefly – with a relatively innocuous, if lengthy, sprint stage, offering a first chance to assess the form of the fastmen, and a first opportunity for Mark Cavendish to tilt for that record-breaking stage win.

Stage four, Tuesday 2 July: Pinerolo to Valloire, 140km

Gone are the days when the Tour’s opening week was a stultifying succession of sprint stages: this is pure climbing. The first 50km are uphill, but the sting comes at the end; it’s unprecedented for the Tour to go over a pass as high as the Galibier this early on. If the defending champion, Jonas Vingegaard, is short of form we will find out here; the downhill finale will suit Tom Pidcock, arguably the fastest descender in the bunch.

Stage five, Wednesday 3 July: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne to Saint-Vulbas, 177.5km

A run out of the Alps through Chambéry, home of the Decathlon-Ag2R team since its foundation in 1992. This should be a second sprint stage, and Decathlon will be fired up to launch their Irish sprinter Sam Bennett, set to return to the Tour for the first time since 2020. He’s won four sprints this year but whether he has the legs of last year’s points winner, Jasper Philipsen, remains to be seen.

Stage six, Thursday 4 July: Mâcon to Dijon, 163.5km

The first of two days among some of France’s most legendary vintages, passing Meursault, Chassagne-Montrachet and Pouilly, and this should follow the same pattern as the day before: a doomed breakaway and a hectic finale before a bunch sprint. By now it should be clear which of the sprinters is this year’s premier cru; Philipsen will be favourite, but there’s plenty of competition with Cavendish, Bennett, Dylan Groenewegen and Fabio Jakobsen all likely to threaten.

Stage seven, Friday 5 July: Nuits-Saints-Georges to Gevrey-Chambertin, individual time trial, 25.3km

A time trial between two names that will have wine buffs salivating offers a tasty third snapshot of the favourites’ form after days one and four. This is pancake flat so will favour Remco Evenepoel, the reigning world champion, who dominated a similar stage in last year’s Giro, and should be almost unbeatable here. If Roglic, Pogacar and Vingegaard – and 2019 winner Egan Bernal – can limit their losses to a few seconds, it’s game on.

Stage eight, Saturday 6 July: Semur-en-Auxois to Colombey-les-Deux-Églises, 183.5km

The breathtaking run of cultural, culinary and historic reference points continues: now we’re off to the home and burial place of Charles de Gaulle. In 1960 en route to Troyes the riders stopped to greet France’s wartime leader; anti-climactically, lowly placed Pierre Beuffeuil took advantage of the halt to nip off up the road and win the stage. No chance of that today; expect a fourth bunch sprint.

Stage nine, Sunday 7 July: Troyes to Troyes, 199km

As France goes to the polls in the second round of Macron’s snap election, on the Tour it’s a tense day of constant small climbs and 14 stretches of gravel roads through the Champagne vineyards. It will be dusty and spectacular, and there will be punctures and crashes, particularly if it rains. Pogacar will relish this, having twice won the very similar Italian Strade Bianche race; cyclo-cross specialists Van der Poel and Wout van Aert could also shine.

Stage 10, Tuesday 9 July: Orléans to Saint-Amand-Montrond, 187.5km

Flat and innocuous on paper, but when the wind blew here in 2013 the race split to bits, with Alberto Contador putting Alejandro Valverde on the rack. With three changes of direction on the exposed roads in the final 30km, this could happen again. A chance for the hulking Norwegians of Uno-X to engineer a stage win for the seasoned Alexander Kristoff, but the winner here on that windswept day in 2013 was none other than Cavendish.

Stage 11, Wednesday 10 July: Évaux-les Bains to Le Lioran, 211km

There is no respite in this Tour; this is a brutal day out in the Massif Central: 4000m of climbing, culminating in a wicked final 60km including the super-steep Puy Mary climb, and two shorter ascents before the finish. There should be a big break from the off to contest the stage win – the finale suits a punchy rider like Ireland’s Ben Healy – while the favourites watch each other closely for signs of weakness.

Stage 12, Thursday 11 July: Aurillac to Villeneuve-sur-Lot, 204km

Over “heavy” terrain where it will be hard for a team to organise a chase, this should offer a classic battle between the breakaway and the sprinters’ teams; the last two finishes here went the way of the break. The lumpy profile will suit a Tour newbie: such as 22-year-old Belgian Arnaud de Lie. “The bull” comes from the Ardennes, can get over a climb, and has won classics such as the GP de Québec and the Tro-Bro Léon.

Stage 13, Friday 12 July: Agen to Pau, 165.5km

The 75th time the Tour has visited the “belvedere of the Pyrenees.” After this there is only one sprint stage left, so the pressure will be on those fast men left in the race, particularly if they have missed out so far. There are a couple of climbs in the finale which will could catch out anyone who is struggling, but this will be another day for Philipsen, Jakobsen, Groenewegen et al.

Stage 14, Saturday 13 July: Pau to Saint-Lary-Soulan/Pla d’Adet, 152km

The Tour returns to this legendary finish for the 50th anniversary of Raymond Poulidor’s improbable win ahead of Eddy Merckx. With two “super-category” climbs, it’s a good day for someone to stake a firm claim on the polka-dot King of the Mountains jersey. A large break of riders outside the circle of favourites should contest the stage; the 10km finish climb will suit Vingegaard – if he has regained anything like his old form – or the young Spaniard Carlos Rodríguez.

Stage 15: Sunday 14 July: Loudenvielle to Plateau de Beille, 198km

More Pyrenean nastiness; anyone who is struggling will dread the start straight up the Col de Peyresourde. Three early first category climbs soften the legs, the Col d’Agnès will create an initial selection before a climax up the 15km “Plateau of the Bees”. It’s Bastille Day, so the French climbers will be buzzing: a final flourish for Romain Bardet or Warren Barguil, perhaps, or a breakthrough for Romain Grégoire or Lenny Martinez. More likely, a foreigner will win.

Stage 16: Tuesday 16 July: Gruissan to Nîmes, 189km

The final sprint stage on a generally flat route. “Les grosses cuisses” won’t want to let this one go, although if the wind blows, the race could split apart as it has done in the past here. That could suit the big Dane Mads Pedersen or the diminutive Frenchman Bryan Coquard, either of whom could have an interest in the green jersey of points winner, given the number of stages where the pure sprinters will struggle to score.

Stage 17: Wednesday 17 July: Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux to Superdévoluy, 178km

A “transition” stage, to get the riders into the Alps for the final showdown which should be a good chance for the all-rounders to get in a break and contest the finish, so the early kilometres will be intense. Stage hunters such as Magnus Cort, Ben Healy, Pello Bilbao or Simon Yates will fancy this one. With a very demanding final weekend on the horizon, the favourites will watch and wait.

Stage 18: Thursday 18 July: Gap to Barcelonnette, 180km

A last chance for a breakaway before the overall battle takes centre stage, although the continual ups and downs over five third category climbs mean that this stage might just interest a sprinter who can climb a bit, particularly if the green jersey is still up for grabs. If Pedersen or De Lie is feeling good, their Lidl-Trek and Lotto-Dstny teams could try to keep a lid on this one, but good luck with that given the terrain.

Stage 19: Friday 19 July: Embrun to Isola 2000, 145km

An early green jersey sprint is the last time we will see the sprinters in action, and after that it’s a climber’s day. The Col de Vars is a brute, but the Bonette is in a class of its own, the highest ascent the Tour tackles. Some will recall Robert Millar’s gutsy escape over that monster in 1993; as on that day, the chances of a break getting to the finish are minimal as the overall battle will take centre stage.

Stage 20: Saturday 20 July: Nice to Col de la Couillole, 133km

Shorter than the day before, but even more vertical metres of climbing. By now most of the questions should have answers: can Pogacar hang on to the form that won him the Giro, can Evenepoel find some climbing legs in his first Tour, have Roglic and Vingegaard recovered from their horrific crash in April, and is Egan Bernal anywhere near his old self? As on Friday, this is a day for the overall contenders in a totally unique final weekend to the Tour.

Stage 21: Sunday 21 July: Monaco to Nice individual time trial, 33.7km

A first-ever finish outside Paris, due to the Olympics starting later that week. The Tour hasn’t ended in a time trial since the LeMond-Fignon epic of 1989; if the top of the standings is tight, this could be equally memorable but usually by now the race is nailed down. It’s far from flat, and very technical, which suggests Pogacar or Vingegaard rather than Evenepoel for the win, but on day 21 it’s largely a matter of who has anything left in the tank.