Jeremy Whittle’s stage 16 report has landed:

That’s the lot for today. Thanks for reading and thanks for your emails. See you soon for more. It promises to be a gruelling final week for live-bloggers and riders alike. Au revoir.

Jubilation for Philipsen and Van der Poel. He’s a pretty handy lead out man.

Philipsen has significantly closed the gap in the points classification following Girmay’s unfortunate crash in the last couple of kilometres. The leader Girmay is on 376, Philipsen now on 344.

1) Girmay (Intermarché Wanty) 376pts
2) Philipsen (Alpecin Deceuninck) 344pts
3) Coquard (Cofidis) 179pts

Cavendish enthusiasts (myself included) will be disappointed about today, but it was already mission accomplished for him at this Tour. He’ll struggle to trouble the scorers in Sunday’s time trial, but that might actually be a nice way to bid farewell to the Tour, with plenty of time to sit up and soak it all in.

The greatest sprinter saying goodbye to the world’s greatest bike race: it’ll be emotional.

Philip Roodhooft, Alpecin Deceuninck DS, has a chat with Eurosport: “Of course the first week wasn’t like we planned … we can say as a team we stayed calm, we kept the confidence, and everyone can see now why we stayed calm. We knew we had the quality in-house. We can only be happy about that.

“If you see the timing when we first got to the front – it’s indeed textbook – but everybody knows we work hard on it. It gives confidence to the team. We know if the lead out is good, it’s very difficult to beat Jasper, and it fell into place today.

“Of course it’s a pity if there’s a crash … with out without the crash, Jasper had to go for the win … the green jersey is [now] more open than we could have expected and we’ll do everything we can to go for that.”

“Really happy after such a team effort,” says Philipsen after his third stage win of the Tour. "It’s always nice when you can win together and that’s what we did, definitely, today.

“I didn’t see the crash [for Girmay]. We were trying to position ourselves and focus on our own lead out. I hope everyone is OK.

“I was feeling good, I had a good rest day, I was feeling my shape improved during the Tour. So I was confident if we could line it up good today, we could go for the win.

“It’s a difficult level [at the Tour] so three wins is good. We can be proud.”

Can he win green? “Everything is possible. He [Girmay] is climbing really well. I hope he’s OK after the crash because he doesn’t deserve to lose like this. I will try whatever I can because the hard stages are to come.”

We might have hoped for more excitement early in the stage and a fierce fight for the break. But let’s face it, the riders are exhausted, and they know they’ve got a terribly gruelling week ahead, rounded off with a 33.7km time trial as opposed to a spot of champagne on the way to Paris.

Van der Poel gave Philipsen the perfect lead out. He effectively had an open goal. And he finished with ease. Unless you count all the hard training, and the riding for 188km before the finish.

Girmay, following that late crash, rolls home with a couple of teammates. He looks OK thankfully.

1km to go: Philipsen is right up there under the flamme rouge.

1.5km to go: Girmay crashes! Disaster for the points leader!

2km to go: It really is all over the place in terms of teams. But Uno-X are looking good for Kristoff. Two more roundabouts to go.

3km to go: Arkea move up for Demaré. Cavendish looked like he lost the wheel of his teammate. Now, past 3km, no one will lose time overall if they crash.

5km to go: Another roundabout! Who would have thunk it? Jayco–AlUla lead the way.

“Now it’s just a big soup,” McEwen says of the hectic nature of this final part of the stage.

6km to go: Bahrain Victorious are up front. Ineos too. Intermarché Wanty are prominent, riding for Girmay, and Uno-X are massed up on the left-hand side, for Kristoff.

8km to go: “Will a team be able to take control?” asks Kelly. “There’s no team in this Tour that’s been able to control and drop their sprinter off with 200m to go.”

I think the answer is no. This is going to be too hectic and too competitive for any one team to control.

9km to go: Through a roundabout, with the right-hand side blocked off on this one. The peloton snakes through a chicane and all safely negotiate it. Sam Bennett is visible up near the front.

10km to go: Are you nervous? I am. Cavendish will be keeping cool, as he usually does. Inside the final 10km. Not long to go now.

11km to go: The peloton hits a wide section of road heading into Nîmes. Plenty of teams seem to be looking to move up, but on commentary, Kelly reckons “Nobody is wanting to really take it up for the moment.”

13km to go: Just found this shot from Bordeaux in 2010. I was standing just by the finish line to Cavendish’s left. Love that classic HTC-Columbia kit … and what a lead out train that was, by the way.

15km to go: Guess what … it’s another big roundabout. A couple of riders take the maverick option, heading nearly across the middle of it. Fans cheer the peloton on from the roadside. It’s all shaping up for a monster bunch sprint. But who will be in prime position?

16km to go: Gachignard wins the Prix de la Combativité for Stage 16.

18km to go: It’s almost completely flat to the finish from here. Another big roundabout to negotiate. The fact it’s calm now is good for Cavendish. No unnecessary stress, no wind, no splits in the peloton. He’s sitting in the bunch and waiting for his moment …

19km to go: “No wind in the final,” it’s said on the Israel Premier Tech team radio. “It’s just a light breeze. But no wind.”

21km to go: It’s going to be a very difficult one for Cavendish to get in a winning position for the sprint. So many riders are after the win today. So many of his rivals from over the years, such as Kristoff, and much younger sprinters such as Philipsen. But it’s nothing Cavendish hasn’t done before (35 times here at the Tour …). A big test for the Astana Qazaqstan team.

22.5km to go: There’s a big roundabout to negotiate. It won’t be the last. The bunch splits left and right, some riders skipping up off the tarmac and almost over the middle of it.

23km to go: Gachignard has been caught.

24km to go: The peloton is fanned out across a wide road. It’s also strung out, with the GC and sprinters teams trying to be as far to the front as possible. A danger one, as Sean said.

25km to go: “It’s a danger one,” Kelly says of the roundabouts and technical sections coming up in the finish … “If teams are trying to move up.”

26km to go: Johannes Kulset (Uno-X Mobility) is being paced back to the peloton, presumably after a puncture or a mechanical, and is nearly taken out by a vehicle at one of those pesky roundabouts.

27.5km to go: Some new tarmac has been laid near the finish, and it appears to be melting a bit in the heat. No big deal.

The gap is under 40sec now.

30km to go: The gap is down to 45sec.

The lone escapee, Thomas Gachignard of TotalEnergies, has never won a pro race, and that isn’t about to change.

32km to go: The sprint domestiques have taken this up now. The gap is down to 1min 08sec. The GC teams have moved up too. The days for our lone escapee are numbered.

33km to go: “Thank you for the Tour reports,” emails John. “Bike touring in France with spotty coverage for updates - much, much gentler pace and I guarantee more wine and cheese being consumed than anyone connected with the race … Go Cav for the sprint!!”

35km to go: Today’s hooley has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

Up front, Gachignard is working hard, currently holding the gap at 1min 36sec.

37km to go: Gachignard has 1min 40sec. He totally has the energy for this.

38.5km to go: “That is so funny that Groenewegen mentioned roundabouts,” emails Antony. “When I saw today ending in Nîmes that was the first thing I looked for on the map. It has a fine arena, some of the best boulangeries, great food in general, picturesque streets in the old town. Even a Carrefour.

“And yet what I remember most about Nîmes was the bloody roundabouts, especially the street on which the finale is. And there was basically no need for any of them. Although if they keep going, the aforementioned Carrefour will be on their right.”

40km to go: Dillier, after putting in a massive shift at the front, has dropped off the back for a bike change. And probably because he’s knackered.

41km to go: A couple of quad bikes, with tricolores trailing off the back, ride alongside the peloton for a while on an adjacent path. The gap is 1min 43sec.

45km to go: The gap is 1min 43sec. Clearly there is no hope for Gachignard, unless something catastrophic happens behind.

The average speed today is 43.4km/h. A relaxed pace for the pro riders, positively super-human for mere mortals. (The average speed in the past hour is 46.8km/h, reflecting the raise in pace for the intermediate sprint and the climb.)

The temperature is 33C, according to the official website, but it will be hotter than that on the road.

48km to go: The gap is 1min 37sec. Gachignard powers on alone up front.

49km to go: Another sprinter, Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco–AlUla), had a chat earlier.

What’s today’s finish like, he is asked: “A lot of roundabouts. That’s for sure. We know what to do and we need to be in position.

“[Sunday] was a really hard one. Everybody suffered but most of us made the time cut. I think everybody is a little bit tired.”

50km to go: Here we go then. The business end, pardon the cliche, of potentially the final Tour de France sprint stage of Mark Cavendish’s career. There are other sprinters in the race, true, but none in the class of Cavendish, and a 36th victory would be a wonderful way to seal his astonishing career.

54km to go: I missed the footage, but it sounds like someone crossed the road just in front of Gachignard, our lone escapee, and a collision was narrowly avoided.

“Save for a bag of crisps, I think we’ve done all right this year,” says Kirby on commentary for Eurosport.

57km to go: Chris Harper (Jayco-Alula) and Maxim Van Gils (Lotto Dstny) both left the race this morning. Both, reportedly, due to Covid. The official withdrawals page can be seen here.

59km to go: Up front, Gachignard has a lead of 2min 13sec. The TotalEnergies marketing manager is cracking open the bubbly as we speak.

61km to go: Pascal Ackermann, the Israel Premier Tech sprinter, speaking before the stage: “The pressure is high today. The final chance for a win. We are motivated … I just think it will be a really chaotic sprint.

“I think especially in the third week, the legs are all-important. I feel quite fresh. I felt good in the mountains. I hope I could save some energy for the last days and be fresh for this sprint.”

64km to go: I was just trying to remember the big win by Dillier from a few years back. I was forced to resort to Google:

He was second in Paris-Roubaix in 2018, too. Which takes some doing.

68km to go: “He rides like he is two men,” McEwen says of Alpecin Deceuninck’s Dillier. “Kilometre after kilometre, neutralising breakaways. He just pumps out the rhythm all day long.”

70km to go: Gachignard is putting in a big dig here and trying to stay away from the peloton. For the moment, they are happy to let him have his moment in the sun and get some welcome TV time for his team sponsors. Dillier, however, continues to show off his impressive stamina at the front of the peloton for Alpecin Deceuninck.

73km to go: Thomas Gachignard (TotalEnergies) takes maximum points on the Côte de Fambetou, the solitary categorised climb of the day. He attacked solo after the intermediate sprint and has created a gap of over two minutes.

Sorry, I was slightly sidetracked by the blue moustache and the phantom hooley.

76km to go: Meanwhile, in hooleywatch:

“The big hooley hasn’t blown up just yet,” says Kirby.

This so-called hooley, let’s face is, is non-existent.

Still, the final part of the stage could be a real tough one.

76km to go: Following on from that Kristoff interview: Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility) vowed to colour his moustache blue if he hit 200k Instagram followers. And here we are.

79km to go: First-placed Girmay is on 376 points, Philipsen 294 after the intermediate. Let’s see how heavily they can score in the final …

82km to go: The Norwegian sprinter Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X Mobility) won in Nîmes 10 years ago and had a chat before today’s stage.

“It’s a long time,” he says. “Yes, good memories still. Maybe it can happen again? We will see. I was just laying in my room all day yesterday [on the rest day], not doing anything … right now, I feel OK.

“I was watching my roommate getting his, what do you call it, blue moustache.”

83km to go: Philipsen was in fact second with Turgis third, and that’s your confirmed intermediate sprint result:

1) Coquard (20pts)
2) Philipsen (17pts)
3) Turgis (15pts)
4) Girmay (13pts)
5) De Lie (11pts)

88 km to go: The sprint result below is off the official website but I think it’s incorrect. Coquard definitely won it, I will confirm the others when it’s clear on the TdF socials or website.

89km to go: “Not the gale or the hooley we were hoping for just yet,” observes Carlton Kirby. Those phantom crosswinds, always a favourite of commentators and pundits aiming to hype up a flat stage.

91km to go: “I didn’t expect so many teammates to be involved in leading that out,” says Kelly on commentary. It was a hectic one that’s for sure. Cavendish, however, wasn’t interested, not even as a leg-loosener for what he hopes will be a closing bunch sprint.

93km to go: Let’s see what happens after the sprint. Was this the kick up the backside that the stage needed? Will the final 90km or so be a fight?

95km to go: I was wrong about the sprint, then, and the fast men’s teams have taken it up at the front. The pace has suddenly shot up as the jostling for position begins ahead of the one sprint of the day. Intermarché Wanty are leading it out for Biniam Girmay.

96km to go: “Calm … calm … calm,” says Sean Kelly. At least I think that’s what he said.

97km to go: Wout van Aert (Visma–Lease a Bike), one of the contenders today, has a chat. Is his form improving as the race goes on? “Yeah, for sure. I feel better. Recovery goes smoother. It was not something crazy but my performance uphill on Sunday was better than the Galibier stage. I think I’m getting there, but it’s more the feeling than what you can see in the numbers.

“It’s the Tour de France, we need to be sharp every day … there were some stages when we thought the wind would be a factor [but wasn’t] … also today we need to be sharp [due to potential crosswinds]. It’s an opportunity to win a stage, and for me personally, one of the last opportunities.”

100km to go: Gruppo compatto, as they say in Italian. The gruppo remains very much compatto. Cavendish will hope his team can put him in the mix in a bunch sprint a little later. We hope that too, don’t we?

105km to go: The peloton just rolled through a feed zone, plenty of riders picking up a team musette containing a spot of lunch.

There is unmistakably an undertone of tension here as teams worry about the possible impact of crosswinds in the second half of this stage. It’s far from a standard sprint day, evidenced by the fact that a breakaway was not allowed to go.

Stefan Küng fancied it from the start, but no one joined him when he attacked from the flag, and that was pretty much that.

107km to go: Just under 15km to go to the day’s intermediate sprint at Les Matellettes.

“It’s 36C … it’s roasting,” Blythe tells us from the back of that motorbike.

107km to go: Jeremy Whittle, our Tour de France reporter, was in the EF Education EasyPost team car on stage nine:

111km to go: The Decathlon–AG2R La Mondiale rider Larry Warbasse, on co-commentary duty, reckons this is a very dangerous day for potential splits in the crosswinds.

114km to go: The day’s intermediate sprint, and the category-four climb, are not far away now. The group is altogether, and if I was a betting man, I would say there won’t be much interest in battling for either.

However, on the motorbike, Adam Blythe reckons that in 10km or so, the wind is going to become more of a factor. He says the people in the team cars don’t want to speak to him now because they want to be available on the radios … the atmosphere seems to be increasingly nervous.

“Hopefully it’s going to kick off,” says Blythe.

115km to go: I wouldn’t rule out race-defining drama on the final day. We’ve seen riders blow up in decisive time trials before …

118km to go: “Regarding the GC,” emails Bill. “I think the penultimate and antepenultimate stages are going to be brilliant. There’s a scintilla of a chance for the second to fourth placed riders to get a stomp on hoping to claw some time back. Everyone’s human, here, and some are due a bad day. Closing the gap in the GC would make the otherwise deathly dull final day slightly more interesting than watching numbers on a clock change.

“On final days, there’s always been something more than magnificent about Cav reaching into his bag, plonking the thrilling heroics on to the bars, and hurtling down the Champs-Élysées (and, weirdly, David Millar tried the same, making a solo break on his swansong). It’s a shame we won’t get to see that again.”

119km to go: Below is what remains after today (in the form of William Fotheringham’s pre-race stage guide) ending in Nice on Sunday with that individual time trial:

Stage 17: Wednesday 17 July: Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux to Superdévoluy, 178km

A “transition” stage, to get the riders into the Alps for the final showdown which should be a good chance for the all-rounders to get in a break and contest the finish, so the early kilometres will be intense. Stage hunters such as Magnus Cort, Ben Healy, Pello Bilbao or Simon Yates will fancy this one. With a very demanding final weekend on the horizon, the favourites will watch and wait.

Stage 18: Thursday 18 July: Gap to Barcelonnette, 180km

A last chance for a breakaway before the overall battle takes centre stage, although the continual ups and downs over five third category climbs mean that this stage might just interest a sprinter who can climb a bit, particularly if the green jersey is still up for grabs. If Pedersen or De Lie is feeling good, their Lidl-Trek and Lotto-Dstny teams could try to keep a lid on this one, but good luck with that given the terrain.

Stage 19: Friday 19 July: Embrun to Isola 2000, 145km

An early green jersey sprint is the last time we will see the sprinters in action, and after that it’s a climber’s day. The Col de Vars is a brute, but the Bonette is in a class of its own, the highest ascent the Tour tackles. Some will recall Robert Millar’s gutsy escape over that monster in 1993; as on that day, the chances of a break getting to the finish are minimal as the overall battle will take centre stage.

Stage 20: Saturday 20 July: Nice to Col de la Couillole, 133km

Shorter than the day before, but even more vertical metres of climbing. By now most of the questions should have answers: can Pogacar hang on to the form that won him the Giro, can Evenepoel find some climbing legs in his first Tour, have Roglic and Vingegaard recovered from their horrific crash in April, and is Egan Bernal anywhere near his old self? As on Friday, this is a day for the overall contenders in a totally unique final weekend to the Tour.

Stage 21: Sunday 21 July: Monaco to Nice individual time trial, 33.7km

A first-ever finish outside Paris, due to the Olympics starting later that week. The Tour hasn’t ended in a time trial since the LeMond-Fignon epic of 1989; if the top of the standings is tight, this could be equally memorable but usually by now the race is nailed down. It’s far from flat, and very technical, which suggests Pogacar or Vingegaard rather than Evenepoel for the win, but on day 21 it’s largely a matter of who has anything left in the tank.

122km to go: Earlier, we mentioned that Harry Kane was called the “­Raymond Poulidor of world football” on French radio yesterday.

David Alderton writes in: “It’s well worth noting that although Poulidor didn’t ever win the Tour, he was racing against Eddy Merckx for pretty much all of his career. Poulidor’s palmarès is more than decent enough to stand on merit, and he did win plenty.”

124km to go: “Today is my last opportunity to take a stage victory,” Arnaud De Lie of Lotto–Dstny tells Eurosport. “We will give it a try, but we have no pressure. We’re in the biggest race in the world so I need to stay ambitious. But the people we’re competing with are the best, so it’s not going to happen by accident. We’re in the third week, everything needs to be perfect today. It is windy but that’s something I like. We’ll need to be well positioned at the front if there are going to be echelons.”

128km to go: The overall race leader Tadej Pogacar is pictured rolling along in the bunch. Philipsen has dropped back to have a chat with the race doctor, it looks like, but nothing serious. If this was Sunday they’d be getting the champagne out.

130km to go: Luke Durbridge (Team Jayco–AlUla) crashed earlier, and apparently that was caused by a stray dog.

Choose a picture that sums up this Tour de France and it might be this one: Tadej Pogacar on the right, Jonas Vingegaard on the left, barely a tyre’s width between their front wheels as they sprinted for the finish line on Wednesday, with the Dane scraping home the winner.

Each great rivalry on the Tour has created its key image, and it may be that in years to come this ranks alongside Raymond Poulidor and Jacques Anquetil rubbing elbows on the Puy de Dôme, Fausto Coppi handing Gino Bartali a bottle of water – or was it the other way round? – and Bernard Hinault and Greg LeMond crossing the line hand in hand at l’Alpe d’Huez. Or, for the connoisseurs, Hinault and the Dutchman Joop Zoetemelk in a unique escape to contest the finish on the Champs-Élysées in 1979.

133km to go: “As this looks like the most realistic sprint stage left in the race, implore all your readers to follow or switch on the telly as this is the last time we might see Cav competing for a sprint in the tour.

“He’s right up there in my favourite sports people from this country. Or anywhere. Complete warrior. Imagine if he were Dutch or Belgian or French. He would have statues, he would boost the economy of each town he visited Taylor Swift-style, and be presenting Belgian X Factor.

“I bawled when he won the other week. As I had with many of his victories. Andy Murray and Cav leaving in the same year. Two of the best we have produced. Chapeau.”

135km to go: As you may have gathered, all is calm out on the road. The rest of this week is punishing, as usual, but this year the race ends with a time trial rather than a largely ceremonial jaunt to Paris on Sunday.

That fact will be featuring heavily in many riders’ minds. Some will fancy throwing everything at a closing stage win in the 33.7km “race of truth” in Nice, while the GC guys will be very nervous about going into Sunday with empty legs. It’s a long enough time trial that a bad day could spell disaster.

Vingegaard is also asked about fans at roadside booing the riders: “It’s not so nice. That’s how it is. I cannot change it. I just don’t understand why you’d go and see cycling and boo people. It’s how they want to do it, but I don’t understand why.”

Pogacar chips in: “In cycling I think this is unusual. This is what you expect in football and basketball. Booing, I think it doesn’t suit in cycling. It’s unwelcome.”

139km to go: Nice idea from Eurosport: what do Pogacar and Vingegaard think of each other?

“I like how small he is, and how fast he can go on the flat,” Pogacar says of his Danish rival. “On the climb, he’s the best climber in the world. His numbers on the climb are one of the best in the world. There is great respect between me and him.”

And what does Vingegaard think of Pogacar? “We suit each other pretty well. In some kind of way, if I was not a comp to Tadej, I think cycling would be pretty boring right now. And the other way around. In that way, we suit each other well.”

148km to go: Today’s route skirts the south coast not a million miles away from Marseille. The route takes the riders just north of Montpellier and onwards to Nîmes. If they kept going on the same course they’d end up in Avignon, and a little further still would take them to the iconic Mont Ventoux.

150km to go: Adam Blythe, on the Eurosport motorbike, tells us the riders are taking frequent natural breaks. They’re drinking more than usual due to the heat.

151km to go: “A shout out for ITV’s highlights programme last night,” writes Gary Naylor.

“Two features stood out. A lovely piece on John-Lee Augustyn, the man who went over the edge in 2008, who was subsequently stricken by an unrelated injury, retired into difficult days, but is now back and happy in Italy, though his eyes betray some of that history.

“And a trip back to 1989 and Greg Lemond vs Laurent Fignon on the Champs-Élysées, during which 35 years melted away. It focused more on Fignon than Lemond and it was easy to see why he wasn’t much liked, but he looked tremendous on and off the bike, like a rival for Alain Delon as a matinee idol. He’s been gone nearly 14 years now, which is both heartbreaking and terrifying. Enjoy it while you can everyone.”

152km to go: Being “super-happy”, Girmay is clearly learning from the best.

Super-happy was, of course, Cavendish’s catchphrase for quite some time.

“This Tour was unbelivable so far,” the points classification leader, Biniam Girmay, tells Matt Stephens on Eurosport. “Just super-happy with three victories, the team performance. Every stage we are hunting for points. I’m just super-happy, we’ve won more than we expect.”

Does Girmay feel pressure? “For what?”

The pressure to perform, to win?

“For what?” (Girmay cracks a smile.)

“There is no pressure. For me it’s the other hand. If I don’t deliver what I’m looking for, this gives me a lot of pressure. But if I’m delivering, doing a great job, I have no pressure at all.”

159km to go: I hear there is a bit of football news today but obviously, you won’t be worrying about that, what with the Tour de France on.

162km to go: “After seeing Cav haul himself over the line before what was probably a much-needed rest day for him, I have to say that even now I have reverted to spending all day worrying about him,” emails Jeremy Lee.

“Will a break get away, will he get caught behind a crash, will his lead out train get him to where he wants to be at the pointy end of the race, never mind the sprint itself etc. etc.

“I had lulled myself into a false sense of security that after the magnificent number 35 I wouldn’t really care what he did any more – but sadly it hasn’t worked. I was even dreaming of him raising his fist in victory on the Promenade des Anglais until I remembered it was a time trial!

“Mind you, I can remember Le Mond and Fignon and the drag coefficient of his pony tail – cycling eh!”

Cycling, indeed. Bloody hell!

165km to go: The race rolls into Béziers. The following is courtesy of the official Tour de France website:

“The city hosted the Tour de France six times between 1938 and 2006 (including one start). The last winner of a stage here was David Millar, who out-sprinted a strong breakaway group including Michael Boogerd and Laurent Brochard in 2002.”

167km to go: “It could happen. It might happen. Some are hoping it won’t happen,” says McEwen on Eurosport, of a potential crosswind-tastic bunfight for the stage win and indeed in GC.

“The forecast is for just enough wind to split things up … it’s enough to split the peloton if you get a sustained gust … GC teams have to be on their guard, because you could get a split.”

168km to go: It’s looking pretty chilled just at the moment. Cavendish was just pictured rolling along in the bunch and having a chat with a rider from another team.

170km to go: Eurosport play a snippet of team radio from Astana Qazaqstan: “Someone might try something … be towards the front,” was the general gist. In other words, make sure that a worryingly strong escape group doesn’t disappear up the road.

There is indeed a lot of nervosity out there.

171km to go: “I’m not sure I agree with Sean Kelly there, I must say,” emails Kieran.

“I think it might prove a “real difficult one” rather than a “real, real difficult one”.

Well, the game is all about opinions.

The points classification top six, as it stands:

1. Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) 363pts

2. Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) 277pts

3. Bryan Coquard (Cofidis) 147pts

4. Arnaud De Lie (Lotto Dstny) 142pts

5. Anthony Turgis (TotalEnergies) 141pts

6. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates) 136pts

“We had a good rest day,” said today’s favourite, Jasper Philipsen, speaking before the start. “We know it’s going to be a tough week. But it’s a good chance for us today and we have to be ready.

“It’s going to be technical [at the finish]. We have to be there. We have to make the right decisions and try to be first over the line.”

177km to go: “If it was blowing a hooley, it would be a real, real difficult one,” observes Sean Kelly on Eurosport in his inimitable style.

179km to go: It’s calmed down again. Alpecin–Deceuninck are up at the front, controlling the pace, patrolling any potential escapees. The helicopter shots of the vineyards are delightful as the pack rides across the Pont de Fleury.

181km to go: Meanwhile … action! Attacks! I don’t think a break has formed. But the pace is suddenly very hot, to match the weather.

181km to go: This is probably my favourite Cavendish stage win. Aubenas 2009:

182km to go: “Action is going to happen today,” says Adam Blythe on the Eurosport motorbike. “This is the calm before the storm.”

184km: I’m a very occasional and small-stakes gambler … which is why I failed to get my fiver on Cavendish before the market was suspended on a well-known betting exchange website. Let the record state: I sincerely hope he wins today, bet or no bet.

185km to go: Today’s intermediate sprint arrives with 92.6km to race, at Les Matellettes. There is one category-four climb, the Côte de Fambetou, which arrives with 76km remaining.

186km to go: Sean Kelly, on Eurosport commentary, says that many of the riders will have been briefed not to try bother to try and get in the break. That is on the basis that the fast men’s teams are so determined to make this a sprint day, any escape would be doomed to failure.

At the moment, we are looking at a very dull day up until the final section. It should be said this may also down to Cavendish’s stature in the peloton. Would there be many riders who would want to go down as denying him at least a chance of a final stage win?

186.5km to go: Sandy Dujardin (TotalEnergies) is out front on his own. He’s coasting, but the peloton is crawling along behind. Rather than a hectic fight for the breakaway that many expected, we are seeing a complete cancellation of hostilities.

187km to go: Küng sits up, then stops for a pee. The peloton is massed behind and the road is blocked for anyone who fancies a cheeky attack.

Less than a kilometre to ride until the flag is waved and we’re off and racing.

Here is the Guardian’s report of Cavendish’s Nîmes stage win in 2008, his fourth, that the Manxman mentioned in his pre-stage interview.

Poignant to note the report was written by the late, great Richard Moore. Rest in peace.

“Hello,” emails Fiona.

“When I look at a brownie, I gain five pounds.”

See, there is hope for Pog’s rivals.

Now, I should mention, the riders are on the road. They’ve got 5km neutralised still to ride until the race starts.

Christoph Roodhooft, Alpecin–Deceuninck DS, says there will be “a lot of nervosity” today.

Mark Cavendish on his aims for today: “We try for a sprint. Eighteen years ago … 16 years ago, sorry, in Nîmes, I had a stage win.

“I’ve been here since, but I’ve not been here for a bunch sprint since, I think. Nils Pollitt won in ’21, same finish as that last km or so. And the wind could play a factor.”

“All the sprinters who got through those horrific days in the Pyrenees will want a reason for getting through that,” Cavendish says.

What will be Cavendish’s legacy? “I don’t know really. I don’t think that’s for me to say. I do what I do. I love riding my bike. I hope other people enjoy this sport, either riding or watching, as much as I do. That’s what would make me happy.”

And then he’s off, for what is presumable one last attempt at a Tour stage win … Allez, Cav!

On Eurosport, Matt Stephens asks Mark Cavendish about battling to make the time cut on Sunday.

“It was only the last climb we had to go full on,” Cavendish says. “It’s because we stayed to our plan … we have a schedule every day of what we can do on the climbs … in the gruppetto you think you’d make time up in the valley, if you ride like that. But it was a block headwind in the valleys, and the front guys have a motorbike, and we don’t, so the draft they get from that is phenomenal.

“So we were a little bit behind where we wanted to be … it put us a bit close for that last climb. We had to give everything … [Alexey] Lutsenko was there with a bidon every 500m pouring water over my back, to keep me cool, so I could keep going, keep going.

“It’s all right. It’s not the first time I’ve had to suffer in the Tour de France, trying to get through. You’d just rather not have to empty yourself. We did, and we had a rest day, that’s how it is.”

Consulting the official withdrawals page, however, Pedersen packed it in.

On a day in which French radio described Harry Kane as the “­Raymond Poulidor of world football” – Poulidor finished on the podium in the Tour de France eight times, but never won – Tadej Pogacar was, for once, not having to face the usual rest‑day questions about credi­bility that come with wearing the race leader’s yellow jersey.

The consensus among Eurosport pundits is this is going to be chaos at the start.

Robbie McEwen says: “I raced in this area a lot during my career and never had a calm day … even the “calm” days are really windy.”

“Thank you so much guys. You are legends. Absolute legends.”

So said Mark Cavendish to his teammates after they helped him make the time cutoff on Sunday’s mountain stage.

They’ll have had a short spin yesterday to keep the legs moving … and they will be ready to throw everything at this stage today.

We can safely say, in the absence of the usual sprint finish in Paris on Sunday, that this is Mark Cavendish’s final chance to win a stage at this Tour … and perhaps the final victory chance of his remarkable, record-breaking career. The Manxman fought hard to make the time cut before the rest day, and that gynormous effort will all have been with an eye on today. Don’t bet against him.

Jasper Philipsen is the clear favourite for the stage win today. Biniam Girmay, Wout van Aert, Dylan Groenewegen, Mark Cavendish and Arnaud De Lie will also be in the mix. Will we see a textbook small breakaway reeled in by the sprinters’ teams for the fast riders to duke it out at the end?