Let’s pretend there was a strategy. Let’s pretend Gareth Southgate knew that waiting until the fourth minute of added time to bring on Ivan Toney would result in the randomness of Marc Guéhi’s header from Kyle Walker’s long throw landing in just the right spot for Jude Bellingham to score a bicycle kick. Let’s pretend there was evidence of some grand managerial plan coming together as England muddled their way to a face-saving victory over Slovakia in Gelsenkirchen.
There was plenty of incentive for Southgate to big up his substitutions after an unbalanced, confused team secured a quarter-final with Switzerland. Instead of facing an inquest into England exiting Euro 2024, the manager had room to talk about spirit, togetherness and desire. He could use a little diversion as he talked about giving a presentation to his players about the 1966 World Cup last month, explaining that England would not have won then without the understudies in Alf Ramsey’s squad being ready to contribute when their opportunity arrived. Remember hat-trick hero Geoff Hurst coming into the team only in the quarter-final? Look over there. Is that football coming home?
A manager who has just watched his team snatch victory from the jaws of a seismic defeat gets a chance to write the narrative. Southgate stood still. He did nothing. He was too inert to take off Bellingham and Harry Kane. He waited too long to unsettle Slovakia’s centre-backs by bringing on Toney. Or he was right to believe in Bellingham and Kane’s match-winning qualities. He put Toney on just in the nick of time. He always knew Walker, who was somehow still on the pitch after having possibly the worst game of his career, could be England’s Rory Delap.
In the cold light of day, the sense remains that Southgate got away it. A reluctance to be proactive has long been one of the biggest criticisms he has faced and it can be argued he was too slow to respond on Sunday.
He picked the wrong team – again – and without Bellingham’s intervention countless holes would have been picked in the inertia before Cole Palmer’s introduction in the 66th minute. There was the refusal to use Anthony Gordon on the left and the failure to bring on Trent Alexander-Arnold at right-back when England spent the closing stages flinging in crosses.
It brought to mind the former England manager Graham Taylor joking about Napoleon wanting his generals to be lucky. “I don’t think he would have worked with me,” he said, bemoaning the lot of a coach who could never rely on a 21-year-old superstar bailing him out with logic-defying skill deep into stoppage time.
Southgate, by contrast, was lucky. He can say Eberechi Eze, who was thrown on in the 84th minute, played a part in Kane’s winner. He can argue Palmer took the free-kick that led to England’s second; that Toney threw Slovakia and provided the assist for Kane’s winner; that there would have been no long throw from Walker if Alexander-Arnold had come on.
All of these things can be true. But the other element is that England were wretched for all but a few minutes and unless they happen to be on some weird and inexplicable journey to glory in Berlin, the likelihood is that Southgate’s selections, tactics and in-game management will end up costing them.
There was even an admission from Southgate that Toney was unimpressed at being introduced with seconds remaining. Why, given what ensued, was that change not made earlier? Slovakia could not handle Toney and it is hard not to think England could have finished the job in normal time if the Brentford striker had come on with 15 minutes remaining.
It adds to the impression Southgate does not fully understand his squad. He is picking a team with no natural width on the left, but refused to use Gordon against Slovakia’s 37-year-old right-back, Peter Pekarik. He saw England run out of steam after Phil Foden’s disallowed goal at the start of the second half, but waited until the 66th minute to make his first change and would hold out for another 18 minutes before introducing Eze.
Why so rigid? At the 2018 World Cup, there was no response to Croatia taking control of midfield during their semi-final win over England. Three years later, Southgate froze as Roberto Mancini’s substitutions tightened Italy’s grip on the Euro 2020 final. He reacted only after Italy’s equaliser, bringing on Bukayo Saka and changing the team’s shape. Jack Grealish, Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho did not come on until extra time. Rashford would also be overlooked until it was too late in the quarter-final defeat by France at the 2022 World Cup, even though he seemed the obvious choice to run at Jules Koundé when it was 1-1 in the second half.
Credit where it’s due, though. Southgate was right to bring on Conor Gallagher and Ezri Konsa for Bellingham and Kane after England went 2-1 up against Slovakia. England were probably not going to last another 15 minutes with Eze and Saka as wing-backs, Palmer chasing shadows in midfield and two up front. Defensive alterations were necessary given Kieran Trippier and Kobbie Mainoo had gone off.
Shutting down a game is one thing. The question is whether Southgate can alter the flow of one. As the euphoria of Bellingham’s goal subsides, it increasingly seems the answer is no. England will need more than a lucky general against Switzerland on Saturday.
