The Premier League markets itself on its competitiveness. It is, the cliche has it, the league in which on their day anybody can beat anybody. Historically, it has been justifiably proud of the way – far more than equivalent leagues across Europe – it has regulated the distribution of broadcast rights, with the champions getting no more than 1.8 times more than the team finishing bottom.
So when the high priests of statistics gathered by the great Opta oracle performed their incantations this week and asked the supercomputer to predict the unpredictable and give its forecast for the season to come, what was its gnomic response? What cryptic, back-covering prophecies did it offer for the soothsayers to sift in search of meaning? There is an 82% chance that Manchester City will be champions again.
Football is not – yet – statistics. It is not just about taking every variable, feeding it into an algorithm, pressing a button and getting a result. City last season won an unprecedented fourth league title in a row, their sixth in seven seasons; the overwhelming probability is that this season they will extend that run to five in a row and seven in eight years. The Premier League, for all its self-importance, is no different to any other league; just as Pep Guardiola turned the Bundesliga into a monopoly, so has he made English football into City and the rest.
Even last Saturday in the Community Shield, with nine first-teamers absent from the starting XI, there were spells of the game when City were awesomely good. James McAtee looks ready to step up. The machine keeps turning and, even if it were for some reason to malfunction, money is clearly available for upgrades.
This, really, is a story about money. Guardiola is brilliant, arguably the greatest coach of all time, but money is the reason he is at City; it is the reason he has such high-grade parts with which to develop his mechanisms; it is how City went in two decades from lovable laughing stock to crushingly efficient machine.
Some clarity on whether they did that within the regulations may even come this season, with the hearing into the 115 charges brought against them by the Premier League seemingly beginning next month with a verdict tentatively expected early in the new year. Whatever else happens this season, that will be the key event.
It is 18 months since the Premier League brought the charges, which relate to alleged breaches of financial fair play regulations between 2009 and 2018 and alleged failures to comply with the investigation. If City, who deny all the charges, are convicted they could be docked points or face relegation, but this is of vital importance even beyond the impact on them. With an investigation continuing into Roman Abramovich-era Chelsea, the Premier League is facing a huge crisis of credibility. It’s not just about the verdict. It’s about how the investigation is perceived to have been conducted. Is football capable of regulating itself? If it is, what does that look like?
Perhaps the hearing will galvanise City, perhaps it will prove a distraction. If they do falter, who could take advantage? If Arsenal, having upped their points tally every season since 2019-20, could improve for a fifth successive season, going to 90 points or more, they would have a strong chance even if City do prove as formidable as ever.
Riccardo Calafiori as a centre-back operating at full-back, a ploy Mikel Arteta seems to love, strengthens the squad rather than necessarily the starting XI, while the lack of a high-grade goalscorer will dominate the discussion as soon as Arsenal fail to win a game when they controlled possession.
Liverpool, with Arne Slot taking over as coach and Michael Edwards returning as chief executive of football, are yet to make a signing. They have contracts to resolve over Mohamed Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Virgil van Dijk, but have looked bright in pre-season. Although they probably still need a holding midfielder, as the pursuit of Martín Zubimendi suggested, the past two seasons brought the rejuvenation of the front two-thirds of the side. What undermined them last season was an inability, notably against City and Manchester United, to finish off key games they dominated.
Nobody else, according to Opta, have more than a 0.2% chance of winning the league, but the scramble for Champions League places should be intriguing with five serious contenders. Aston Villa, who will have the pressure of Champions League football to deal with; Tottenham, who have signed Dominic Solanke but need to work out how to defend set plays; Chelsea, who can’t stop signing players; Manchester United, who can’t stop signing players who have played in the Netherlands; and Newcastle, who would love to sign players but are constrained by profit and sustainability rules.
Crystal Palace, perhaps slightly surprisingly, are considered to have a 4% chance of making the top four, despite the sale of Michael Olise and interest in Marc Guéhi and Eberechi Eze. Oliver Glasner was hugely impressive in his three months in the job last season and Ismaïla Sarr, Daichi Kamada and Chadi Riad look sensible attempts to plug potential gaps. West Ham have recruited promisingly, even if Niclas Füllkrug, Crysencio Summerville, Max Kilman and Aaron Wan-Bissaka feel more suited to a David Moyes side than to Julen Lopetegui, who replaced him as manager in May.
The supercomputer has Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton as the most likely to be relegated, just as the three promoted clubs were last season. That’s the miserable reality of modern football: whatever data Opta feeds into its predictor, the strongest determinant of finishing position will always be money.
Whatever the outcome of the City hearing, that is the bigger issue the Premier League and football must address: how can revenues be distributed and investment in the game be regulated so future seasons don’t begin with one side having an 82% chance of winning the title? Because that level of predictability is good for nobody.
