It would be fair to say that the Australian men’s team pursuit squad did not arrive in Paris as favourites. It was not that the endurance squad was considered weak – they had shown remarkable resilience to bounce back from a high-speed equipment malfunction to win a bronze medal in Tokyo. But in recent years, dominant nations on the track had stepped up – and the Australian team had not been able to follow.

The squad had finished fourth at consecutive world championships. In 2022, the team’s qualifying time at the world titles – over 4,000 metres – was 3:50.344. Last year, the team was again above the three minute and 50 second mark.

That time was competitive, ground-breaking even, two Olympic cycles ago. When Great Britain beat Australia to gold at the 2016 Rio Olympics, the British set a new world record in the final: 3:50.265. But in just eight years, that mark has dropped precipitously.

Australia took the mark down to 3.49 at the 2018 Commonwealth Games and then shaved off another second at the 2019 world championships. Then Denmark and Italy arrived on the scene. At the 2020 world titles, the Danish team pursuit squad set three new world records in consecutive nights – ending the event with a new best-time of 3:44.6.

The Danes were considered the team to beat in Tokyo, only to find themselves upstaged by Italy – who twice broke the world record on their way to gold, moving the mark to 3:42.032. Denmark got revenge at the last edition of the world championships, beating Italy to gold.

All of which meant that heading into Paris, Olympic champions Italy, world champions Denmark and perennial track contenders Great Britain (who had been relegated at the last Games due to an incident in their race with Denmark) were considered the teams to beat. Not Australia.

In a recent interview with Guardian Australia, team coach Tim Decker admitted as much. “It’s a tough rebuild from [Tokyo],” he said. “But not impossible. As Australians we don’t shy away from being underdogs.”

The Australians are no longer underdogs. That changed over two quick-fire evenings at the Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines Velodrome. On Monday, the Australian squad of Oliver Bleddyn, Sam Welsford, Conor Leahy and Kelland O’Brien, surprised the field to qualify fastest, in a time of 3:42.958 – barely a second away from the world record. Just 24 hours later, in Australia’s first round encounter with Italy, the team not only set a new world record, but smashed the old one – finishing in a time of 3:40.730.

It has been five years since Australia were world champions in the men’s team pursuit. It has been two decades since the Australians were last Olympic gold medallists in the discipline, at Athens 2004.

And so on Wednesday evening at the velodrome, Australia will race long-time track rivals Great Britain for gold (the British qualified in 3:42.151). The two nations have history in the team pursuit. Britain beat Australia for gold at consecutive Olympics, in 2012 and 2016, before Australia got the edge at the 2018 Commonwealth Games and 2019 world championships.

Until the recent dominance of continental European nations, Australia and Britain were for a long time considered to have the two leading track cycling programs. AusCycling even poached a former British Cycling staff member to rebuild the Australian program after a disappointing campaign in Rio.

Whatever the outcome on Wednesday, the new world record mark is an astounding achievement. For decades, the four minute barrier was seen as impregnable. It was not until the Sydney 2000 Olympics, when the Germans went three-tenths of a second under that mark, that sub-four minute team pursuits were suddenly possible. In the 24 years that have followed, the limits of what is possible have repeatedly been tested. With Australia now in the 3.40s, it is surely only a matter of time until a nation enters 3.39 territory. Could it even come in the final?

Perhaps this was always inevitable, as track cycling has become an arms race between well-funded national teams and dedicated equipment manufacturers (Australia’s track bike retails at nearly $100,000 – although that is largely to comply with rules that require equipment to be commercially available, without allowing other teams to take advantage of the national team’s hard work). But for Australia to leapfrog the Danes and Italians, and establish themselves at the forefront of team pursuit again is particularly impressive, only three years on from an ultimately disappointing campaign for the wider track team.

It promises to be a thrilling race. Great Britain were world champions on this very track two years ago. Australia’s time in qualifying and the first round have been a cut above anyone else. If the Australians can return to the top of the Olympic team pursuit podium 20 years after they were last there, it would suggest that following a period in the wilderness, Australian track cycling is very much back.