No Australian has won the Vuelta a España, the famed Spanish grand tour. Only two Australians have finished on its podium; Jack Haig three years ago, and Cadel Evans in 2009. But on Tuesday, West Australian Ben O’Connor will begin the final week of the race in the red leader’s jersey and with over a minute’s lead in the general classification standings.

It began with a daring attack. After losing time to other contenders in the early days of this year’s Vuelta, O’Connor was allowed to join an early breakaway on stage six. With almost 30 kilometres remaining, the 28-year-old went solo on the penultimate climb. The courageous move stuck and O’Connor ultimately won the stage by more than four minutes, with the peloton even further back. The victory made O’Connor one of a select group of riders to have won a stage at all three grand tours; more importantly, it earned him his first red jersey and an almost five-minute lead over pre-race favourite Primož Roglič.

It was a curious error by Roglič’s Red Bull–Bora–Hansgrohe team to allow O’Connor to go up the road. In 2021, at the Tour de France, the Australian had been languishing on the overall standings when he joined a break, attacked solo, won the stage by over five minutes and catapulted himself into second (ultimately finishing fourth). In Spain it felt like deja vu – this was vintage O’Connor.

And it set up an exhilarating Vuelta, a thrilling edition of the sometimes-overlooked Spanish grand tour – which comes late in the calendar, after the early-season ecstasy of the Giro d’Italia and the hype of the Tour de France. Roglič and Red Bull have slowly but surely chipped away at O’Connor’s lead, isolating the Decathlon–AG2R La Mondiale rider when they can and attacking on the toughest climbs. An initial advantage of four minutes and 51 seconds was under four minutes by stage 10, and trimmed to just a minute and 21 seconds three stages later.

With the Vuelta ending this year in an individual time trial, where Roglič is expected to gain at least a minute on O’Connor, the Australian’s lead has entered the danger zone. On Sunday, a gruelling, epic stage culminating with the Cuitu Negru climb, it looked as if O’Connor’s race for red was over. Roglič attacked on the final ascent, putting distance between himself and the remaining group.

Then two things happened. Just as the Slovenian seemed to be riding away and into the red jersey, he faltered. A grimace appeared on his face. Although Roglič held on to finish 38 seconds ahead of O’Connor, it was not the race-winning move that Australian fans had feared. And not long after the finale, race organisers penalised Roglič 20 seconds for drafting on his team car after a bike change. O’Connor’s lead was back above a minute, at 63 seconds, heading into Monday’s rest day.

With six stages remaining, it is certainly advantage Roglič (nor is it a two-horse race – local favourite Enric Mas has looked strong in the high mountains and is only a minute further back). Roglič has used his explosive climbing to earn time over O’Connor, although has seemed less dominant on the longer, steadier ascents. With plenty of climbing metres ahead – there is just one remaining flatter day, on Friday – Roglič will be confident of making up the time.

But O’Connor remains in red and in bike racing anything can happen. An air of unpredictability has enveloped this year’s Vuelta – from O’Connor’s shock assault on the red jersey (during a stage which began within a supermarket, one of the race’s sponsors), to a sprinter winning a mountain stage (Australia’s Kaden Groves, who has quickly become a Vuelta specialist after winning three stages last year). It would be a surprise to see O’Connor still in red on Sunday. But it would not be unthinkable.

Even a Vuelta podium finish would be a remarkable result for the climber. He would join a small, elite group of Australians to have finished in the top three at a grand tour: Evans, the only Australian to win the Tour (and who also has Giro, Tour and Vuelta podium finishes to his name), Jai Hindley who became the first Australian to win the Giro in 2022, and Richie Porte, third at the 2022 Tour. Rarefied company indeed. And O’Connor has already made Australian cycling history, surpassing Phil Anderson with the longest stretch leading a grand tour, as he starts his 10th day in red on Tuesday.

Next year, O’Connor will swap his French trade team for Jayco–AlUla, the first and still only Australian-registered World Tour team. Jayco–AlUla have revolutionised Australian cycling since debuting in 2012 (as Greenedge), winning stages at every grand tour, one-day classics and, in 2018, the Vuelta red jersey. But for much of that time, the team’s general classification ambitions have been led by non-Australians – Colombian Esteban Chaves and English brothers Simon and Adam Yates. From January, for the first time, Jayco–AlUla will be led by an Australian general classification contender.

That will be an exciting next chapter of O’Connor’s career. But he is not done writing this particular story just yet. Six stages stand between the Australian and the iconic red jersey, with a 63-second advantage. If O’Connor can defend that lead, through good form or good fortune, it would be a historic grand tour victory.