It feels like there is still a reluctance to fully buy into this Port Adelaide side, even as they head into a home qualifying final on Thursday night. It is easier to mention the key absences, the thwarted campaigns, the squandered double chances.

There were the same nagging doubts about Geelong heading into the 2022 finals series. We had seen the same movie play out throughout Chris Scott’s tenure – promising home and away seasons that punctured in about 15 minutes when the finals pressure came.

But despite the injuries, the suspensions, the boos, the “Sack Hinkley” placards and the Brisbane drubbing, Port Adelaide are as well placed to win a premiership as they have been for two decades. The Power are the form team of the competition. They’ll play two finals at home. They’ve answered every challenge, beaten every major contender and proved a lot of people wrong.

The unavailability of their two rebounding half-backs will hurt. Kane Farrell and particularly Dan Houston are so important to how they play, how they attack and how they set up. They’ve been a bit of a makeshift operation in recent weeks and coach Ken Hinkley has been adapting on the run, moving his pieces around and plugging holes. Geelong’s band of small, clever, connecting forwards will challenge him on that front.

Port will perhaps have to sacrifice some of their attacking flair for a more conservative, safety-first approach. They also have an All-Australian key forward to shut down. But Port’s backline, a mix of the green-horned, the improving and the recycled, has been excellent and punched above its weight for two months now.

The last game between these two clubs was such a strange affair. It was an ambush. Without Connor Rozee, Port played as well as any team this year. The Cats were top of the table but stood revealed in the first half that night. Their midfield was mauled and Tom Stewart was harassed out of the game. Coach Chris Scott said it was as poor as they’d played for five years.

From the moment that Joel Selwood retired and Cameron Guthrie was injured, the question mark on Geelong has been its midfield. Scott is very good at moving the magnets around, catching opposition coaches off guard and mitigating what he knows is their major flaw. But with Patrick Dangerfield missing, there were only so many tricks he could pull and only so many cracks he could paper over when faced with a midfield of such quality.

Those on-ballers will be the key to this qualifying final. Port’s midfield is a mix of the ageing and the emerging; of role players and superstars. Captain Rozee is the silk, Ollie Wines is the bull and Zak Butters is the workhorse. But Jason Horne-Francis is the one who turns games, who’s the point of difference and who could elevate himself to superstar status this September.

The Power’s midfield depth has allowed Willem Drew to zero in on the oppositions’ best players, for Horne-Francis to push forward more often, for Travis Boak to flourish on a wing, and for Wines to return to what he does best – absorbing bodily contact and protecting some of the lighter-framed stars.

You could have written your own ticket on the Power after they were massacred by Brisbane and just scraped in against St Kilda. The Brisbane game was the highest score they’d conceded since the Matthew Primus years. But week by week, they’ve crept up on the competition and the punditariat. And while so many other contenders got the staggers, the Power held their nerve and improved.

Port Adelaide were the team who played the best football of 2024 against Sydney. They were the ones who dug in and won ugly on a miserable Saturday night at the MCG. They were the team who avoided all the trash talk in the lead up to the Showdown. They were the ones who settled when the Showdown threatened to boil over. And, with so much at stake, they were the team that was composed and clean against a desperate Fremantle.

Like West Coast in 2018, and indeed like Port’s 2004 premiership side, they’re going to have to do it without several key players. And they’re going to have to overcome a master coach who will probe every weak spot. But they’re ready. As many other top-eight aspirants dragged their heels through the latter half of winter, Port were the ones running on top of the ground.

If they can sustain that for another month, it will be one of the most remarkable turnarounds and richly deserved premierships we have seen.

• This is an extract from Guardian Australia’s free weekly AFL email, From the Pocket. To get the full version, just visit this page and follow the instructions