For some time now Asia’s World Cup representatives have consisted of four from the quintet of South Korea, Japan, Australia, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Sometimes all five make it – as in 2018 and 2022 – and occasionally there is a gatecrasher as in 2010 with North Korea. For 2026, though, there will be eight automatic places on offer for the 18 teams that kick off the third round of qualification on Thursday and some unfamiliar names for global audiences.
For example, two out of the six-team Group B will qualify by next June, meaning that even assuming that South Korea make it for an 11th successive time, at least one of Oman, Palestine, Jordan, Kuwait and Iraq will join the East Asians in North America.
Iraq are especially desperate. The one appearance back in 1986 came at a time when Saddam Hussein’s son Uday was in charge of the country’s FA, dishing out regular beatings of players that increased with the three one-goal defeats in Mexico. Since then a return to the global stage has been elusive for a nation that has always had talent, as the 2007 Asian Cup triumph showed, but Zico, Bora Milutinovic, Srecko Katanec, Dick Advocaat and Zeljko Petrovic are among the many coaches who struggled to get the team to fulfil its potential.
A lack of home advantage has not helped. No World Cup qualifier has been played in Baghdad since before the US-led invasion in 2003. The capital may still be off-limits for Fifa but Basra could be the springboard for success. More than 150,000 saw the Lions of Mesopotamia win all three games in the southern port city in the previous round – no team in Asia will relish going there with the World Cup at stake.
Fans are ready once more. The coach Jesús Casas is, too. The Spaniard has been in place for almost two years, a long time in a country that has seen 30 head-coaching changes this century alone. In August, the former Spain and Watford assistant signed a contract extension until 2027, a reflection of the kind of football he has the team playing and the fact that he was on the shortlist of South Korea – though given the chaos involved in that search, that may not be a huge compliment.
These days, the squad has more foreign experience than ever before. Players report for duty from the Netherlands, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Italy and England. As well as the exciting young forward Ali Jasim moving to Como in Serie A, Ali al-Hamadi, born in the last full year of Saddam’s reign not far from Basra before moving to Toxteth at the age of one, became the first Iraqi to appear in the Premier League when he came on for Ipswich against Liverpool on the opening day. This is a cosmopolitan and confident Iraq team that kick off against Oman expecting to take the three points to set them on their way to the top-two finish that will guarantee a second World Cup appearance.
Iraq and South Korea don’t just share an appreciation of Casas but will both be happy that the other four teams in their group could have been tougher. Son Heung-min and colleagues have a first-ever game against Palestine on Thursday and should take all three points in Seoul. The visitors would be delighted with fourth place – while the top two from each of the three groups of six qualify automatically, third and fourth place finishers advance to an extra stage to compete for the final two spots.
So too would Kuwait, who squeezed into the final 18 ahead of India. Jordan defeated both Iraq and Korea on their way to the Asian Cup final earlier this year and are the biggest dangers to the two favourites. Losing their Moroccan coach Hussein Ammouta to Al Jazira in the UAE league is a major blow though trips to Amman are never easy. Oman finished within a point of Australia on the road to Qatar and would love to go one better. The west Asian nations look certain to all take points off each other, which will suit South Korea even more.
Group C, tougher on paper, kicks off with Japan hosting China. This fixture can be highly charged but that looks unlikely this time given that the Samurai Blue, Japan, should slay Team Dragon quite comfortably. China, with only 2002 to look back on in World Cup terms, only made it this far thanks to a better head-to-head record with Thailand in the previous round.
For the third time running, Japan have Australia and Saudi Arabia to deal with and for the third time running, should finish first. The Saudis, yet to settle under Roberto Mancini, are likely to scrap for second with the Socceroos. Indonesia, Asia’s most-improved team and, full of naturalised players born and bred in Europe, could squeeze into fourth above China and Bahrain.
Group A lacks a little of the quality of C and the narratives of B but looks solid. Iran never get the attention they deserve and should stroll to North America. Qatar won their second successive Asian Cup in February but would probably trade one for a first World Cup qualification. Those two are favourites but then Uzbekistan, the continent’s chokers who have come close before only to fall when the prize was within reach, are desperate and have a growing number of good young players. The United Arab Emirates have Paulo Bento in charge while Kyrgyzstan and, especially, North Korea can make things difficult. Indeed, the North Koreans have not played much and try not to allow cameras even when they do take the pitch.
Despite the massive changes in Asian qualification for 2026, some things stay the same.
