If Paris Saint-Germain take an early lead at Red Bull Salzburg on Tuesday they may wonder whether to stick or twist. The new Champions League format has, at least in part, been designed to ensure Europe’s superpowers have fewer opportunities to fail, so their position risks embarrassment. They will not even qualify for the playoff round in February unless they improve on 25th place and, with three league-phase games remaining, are two points and three goals shy of the cutoff.
A tight 1-0 would prise the door back open but that might not cut it in this season’s competition. Salzburg are a shadow of their former selves and it should be an invitation to rack up a big score. The majority of PSG’s rivals have done so at least once: this edition of the tournament has been hallmarked by booming scorelines and the question, in a week that promises more of them, is why.
Bayern Munich’s 9-2 demolition of Dinamo Zagreb on 17 September, the first day of the expanded 36‑team competition’s existence, set a tone. After five rounds the average gap between winning and losing teams has been 2.03 goals; at the equivalent stage last season and margin was 1.39. The difference is noticeable, as is the number of thrashings. Is the new format a factor or has the disparity between the continent’s elite and its makeweights widened to distort competition even further?
The case for the latter is tempting given Slovan Bratislava, probably this year’s truest minnows, sit second-bottom with no points and a goal difference of -14. They endured a baptism of fire at Celtic on the opening night, going down 5-1, and little has improved since. Young Boys, the team below them, lost 6-1 at home against Atalanta last time out and conceded five at Barcelona. Sparta Prague, performing on this stage for the first time since 2005-06, conceded an aggregate of 11 against Atlético Madrid and Manchester City. Perhaps smaller nations’ biggest clubs are being left behind to a degree that will, amid calls for a more level playing field, embolden those who retain designs on a Super League.
Yet some voices within European football urge caution and believe bigger scores are a consequence, intended or not, of the expanded format’s rules. The argument is persuasive: with so many teams bunched together, and goal difference certain to be a deciding factor for key positions in the table, many have simply appreciated the benefits of turning the screw. It can effectively count for the extra point that separates success from early elimination. Previously, the restrictive head-to-head rule had been the tie-breaker for league‑phase deadlocks.
When Arsenal scored early against a high-flying Sporting last time out, Martin Ødegaard waved his teammates forward again at the restart and four more goals followed. Liverpool hardly let up after breaking through against a fine Bayer Leverkusen side, winning 4-0 in the last half-hour.
At the other end of the table Red Star Belgrade, knowing their chances of remaining competitive this season hung by a thread, entered their match with Stuttgart as underdogs but got their noses in front and kept going. They won 5‑1 and, against opponents who had won at Juventus, gave the lie to notions that western Europe’s big hitters are exclusively dealing out the lessons.
That said, 17 of the 22 hauls of four goals or more have come from teams in the “big five” leagues. It is still top sides who have the firepower. The world’s most famous club tournament should not contain too many whipping boys and it is a trend being monitored by interested parties as the business end nears.
Some maintain that the new Champions League model will have served its purpose in any case by 2027, when the current three‑year cycle ends, and be replaced by a more slimline version. Others adjacent to its creation contend that nobody should form judgments until the eight league‑phase matchdays are complete and point to the fact that so much is at play: PSG are hardly the only giants to be struggling, Real Madrid surely require a win at in-form Atalanta on Tuesday if they are to hold any hope of an automatic place in the knockout stages. Should the final 18-game round be awash with jeopardy, any growing pains may be considered worthwhile. The super clubs, for their part, may wonder whether the wild oscillations in each round offer the level of certainty they would like.
PSG could climb four places if their week goes perfectly. That would almost certainly require a healthy victory in Austria and perhaps, in their hour of need, Luis Enrique’s players will deliver. As three dozen contenders find themselves obliged to go for goals, any long-term effect on the competition remains to be seen.
