Game of the week

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) v Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

The battle for the AFC North nears its climax with two bitter rivals gutting it out for hallowed home-field advantage in the playoffs. If the Pittsburgh Steelers continue their hot streak and earn a fifth successive win in Baltimore then the division is theirs while the Ravens can clinch a playoff spot with victory and see a path to the top of the class if Mike Tomlin’s team fall to the Chiefs or Bengals to close out the season.

Both teams will feel they have an edge on the other as the Ravens have flattered to deceive at times (see: defeats to Raiders and Browns), while the Steelers have struggled to move the ball without George Pickens. John Harbaugh’s team boasts a total offense that rivals Buffalo and Detroit in efficiency and explosiveness. The incredible tandem of quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry can tie even the best defense in knots on their day. But will the stars align? Pittsburgh’s brutal pass rush will still be confident they can bring out the bad in Baltimore.

What the Steelers need to do to win: Pickens needs to come back into the lineup. The star receiver is still yet to return to practice though so the Steelers need to lean on the running game, while still not losing faith in Wilson’s deep passing threat, in his sizable absence. Last week’s box score suggested Wilson seriously struggled but his receivers were locked up in tight coverage all day by a passing defense that gives up 227 yards/game, the second fewest in the NFL. Meanwhile the Ravens cough up the second most at 323. The offensive scheme needs to use Wilson’s deep threat but find balance to exploit that weakness when it counts.

Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has to find a way to get the running game going while also including Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren in the passing attack. Against the Bengals they combined for 10 catches and over 100 yards, but against the Eagles they had a catch each for a total of 10 yards. The most crucial upshot of finding success with the run will be chewing the clock. The defense started hot against Philadelphia but looked completely gassed at the gun as they were sent out again and again. TJ Watt especially will need rest to contend with Jackson and Henry as he manages an ankle injury.

What the Ravens need to do to win: The Ravens need to clean their act up and take a dispassionate approach to turn around their rotten form against the Steelers. With only one win in their past nine meetings, Baltimore have to stay focused to avoid game-killing turnovers and penalties that were the difference when beaten by Pittsburgh in November. Harbaugh’s team committed 12 penalties, turned the ball over three times and missed two field goals while Jackson had three balls batted at the line of scrimmage and was sacked twice.

If and when the mistakes are tidied away, Jackson – 1-4 against Pittsburgh – needs to solve Mike Tomlin’s defense. One route to doing so will be using running back Justice Hill’s speed and sublime route running out of the backfield so the more predictable targets to Mark Andrews can be used more effectively in bits and pieces for chunk plays and touchdowns. Mixing in tight end Isaiah Likely in the slot or out wide has the potential to help break Pittsburgh’s will too. The final piece of the puzzle has to be copying Philadelphia’s success by dominating time of possession. They only managed 24 minutes to Pittsburgh’s 36 in Week 11.

Rising in playoff race: Philadelphia Eagles

Suggesting a 12-2 team on a 10-game winning streak are on the rise feels a little late ... yet the Eagles clicked into a much higher offensive gear in their dominant win over Pittsburgh last week, specifically in the passing game, than had previously been seen. A daunting upgrade that will have the rest of the league a touch shaken after QB Jalen Hurts hit his best receiver AJ Brown for double-digit targets for the first game since Week 1 while giving the second-in-command Devonta Smith double-digit receptions for the first time this season. They even finished with eerily similar numbers of a touchdown each with Brown going for 110 yards and Smith 109.

The No 1 seed is not yet theirs to lose though but they are hovering with intent, as holes continue to proliferate Detroit’s roster while the Minnesota Vikings also challenge at 12-2. The Lions though face the Vikings in the final week of the season after Minnesota face the Green Bay Packers in week 17. The Eagles can put serious pressure on their rivals for the first-round bye with a win over Washington on Sunday. A sweep of the Commanders would get close to ensuring an incredible 15-2 finish considering their cake-walk against the Cowboys and Giants to end the season.

Falling in playoff race: Seattle Seahawks

Seattle will be relieved as Geno Smith will start against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. They certainly need him. After Smith exited last week’s thrashing from the Packers with a knee injury, Sam Howell entered, sort of, recording an average of 1.71 yards from 14 passing attempts. Even with the starter the omens look iffy after the Seahawks finally with their destiny in their own hands, quickly handed it off to the surging Los Angeles Rams. They are level with their NFC West mates on 8-6 though have the weaker conference record and could slip back a game if the Rams handle the New York Jets.

The Vikings feels very much like a prove it game for Mike Macdonald’s team and an assumption of defeat is premature after racking up four wins in succession this month. The question is who are Seattle really: the strong defensive operation from December that can put the squeeze on Sam Darnold or the pushovers that went 1-5 in midseason?

Race for No 1 draft pick

Inside the raging tire fire of NFL ineptitude there is a bowl game of sorts on Sunday. The 3-11 Jaguars meet the 2-10 Raiders in an encounter that could have dramatic ramifications for the 2025 draft order. A defeat for Las Vegas keeps them in pole position for the top rookie quarterback – Shadeur Sanders? – to turn the ailing pirate ship around while a loss for the Jaguars would keep them in the race to sign best the non-QB, in this case Heisman Trophy-winning cornerback Travis Hunter from pick three. The order as it stands has them at No 1 and 4 respectively but the eventualities are so open that the Raiders could end up picking as high as 10 with a win followed by two more to close out a dismal year strong. Stranger things have happened.