Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Williams walked into the NFL with sky-high expectations. He was compared to Patrick Mahomes and was billed as someone who could, almost single-handedly, turn Chicago into a playoff contender.

Thirteen weeks on, the Bears have fallen apart. The team’s defense remains solid. But, for much of the season, Chicago’s offense has been a debacle. They have fired their head coach and offensive coordinator, the promised weapons have failed to deliver and Williams’s offensive line has faceplanted.

But Williams must shoulder some of the blame for the blame, too; he toggled between trying to do too much and not doing enough. The magic he showed in college withered away as he became wedded to the pocket, trying to stick to a broken system. Since the Bears swapped out Shane Waldron for Thomas Brown as play-caller in Week 9, though, things have started to click.

In his last three games, Williams has cut loose. He has sped up his process, getting the ball where it needs to be on time. Pre-Brown, Williams’ internal clock was off. He had five games with an average time to throw over 3.4 seconds under Waldron, almost a full second above the league average. And this was not the Williams of USC, bobbing and weaving and making circus play out of structure.

That was always the concern with Williams coming out of college. Would he ever be able to find the Mahomesian balance between being a creator and making sure the offense stayed on schedule? Early on, it looked as if Williams was in two minds about when he should let his instincts take over. Now, he has cut down on his indecision. With Brown calling plays, Williams has lopped almost a full second off his average time to throw. The daring Williams has arrived, the quarterback who can use funky arm angles to engineer passes that even the best cannot generate.

Step back from the early-season narrative, and Williams is on pace for a 3,700-yard, 20-touchdown, seven-interception season, which would not be far off CJ Stroud’s excellent rookie campaign last year. It has been a slog, but the arrow is trending up for Williams.

Grade: B – Inconsistent with flashes of the star he could become.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Daniels started the season on a historic pace, forcing his way out of the Rookie of the Year sweepstakes and into MVP consideration. He tailed off slightly at the midpoint of the year, with a rib injury in Week 7 hampering his mobility and with defenses adjusting to his style and Washington’s go-go offense. But Daniels returned to form in Week 13 against the Titans, showing the maturity of a veteran starter.

Everything about Daniels’s game is explosive. He has a quick release. He bounces between reads at a lightning pace. When it’s time to run, he is lethal in the open field. But for all the highlight plays, Daniels has also proven to be efficient – and accurate. He is fourth in the league among eligible quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage, outpacing Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. He sees every possible pass, and with his arm strength and touch, every pass is possible.

Washington entered the season with minimal expectations. The hope was the Daniels would flash and that, over time, he could sand off the rough elements of his game as the organization put a competent roster around him. Instead, he has led the Commanders into an unlikely playoff race. How can you do better than taking the league’s most beleaguered franchises and turning it into a slick, must-watch machine?

Grade: A+ – An instant franchise changer.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

No rookie was dropped into a more dysfunctional situation than Maye. Sure, Williams has had to deal with a clownish offense and a head coach sabotaging his team with goofy in-game decisions. But Williams has at least had the benefit of starting-caliber receivers and a strong defense. Maye has been working with … well, nothing.

There may not be a more barren roster in the league than the one in New England. The team’s offensive line sits dead stinking last in every available metric. New England’s defense has, at times, been spiky. But that has not been enough to offset the shortcomings on offense. And yet when Maye took over as starter in Week 6, there was an immediate uptick in production. Before Maye, the Patriots ranked 28th in EPA/play. Since then starter, they’re up to 23rd, still a brutal mark but one that shows the rookie’s impact.

Sometimes you can tell a quarterback has it. With Maye, you see it in the handful of special throws every week.

He has been as advertised: a serial gambler, happy to pass up opportunities underneath if there is a chance to take a shot down the field. There have been boneheaded decisions, but, somehow, Maye has been able to pair highlight-reel throws with enough consistency to keep the Patriots competitive. And he has made plenty of plays with his legs to keep things ticking over. Most telling of all, his completion percentage over expectation is ahead of Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert, all while being hit at one of the highest rates in the league. Given the circumstances, it’s been a triumph.

Grade: A – Maye looks set for long-term success.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Are you a Bo-liever yet? Nix’s season has been split into three phases. During the opening stretch, he looked in over his head. He was making panicked decisions. Then things steadied, with Sean Payton adapting his offense to better suit the young quarterback. And over the last month, Nix has shown glimpses of being a legitimate star.

The game has slowed down for Nix. He is making smart decisions while being more aggressive attacking down the field; his average depth of target on Monday night against the Browns was his highest since his first year in college. He looks comfortable, waiting for plays to develop rather than rushing or fleeing the pocket early. Then there’s this: the most audacious throw from any rookie this season.

Woah. It’s third-and-11. The Broncos are backed up. Picking up anything in that situation would be a plus. But Payton put faith in his young quarterback, knowing he could attack Cleveland’s defense. The Browns have run two versions of the same coverage on 43% (!) of their third-and-longs this season, and Payton wasn’t about to sit around and let them get away with an obvious tell. The Broncos coach dialed up an ideal coverage beater, keeping extra bodies in to protect so that Nix has enough time to deliver a strike down the field from his own endzone.

But there is something extra special at work there. It wasn’t just the velocity or accuracy of the throw. It’s the rhythm. Nix didn’t waste time gathering himself to drive the ball down the field, making sure he could put extra mustard on the ball as he climbed through the pocket. He simply tossed a line drive down the seam, splitting the Browns’ secondary apart, without skipping a beat.

No player’s season is about one throw. But it’s meaningful that an exacting coach like Payton had enough trust in his rookie to even call that shot. If you needed evidence that Nix is more than a dink-and-dunk, game-manager, there it is.

There are still long-term question marks. When Nix has felt pressure, his production has crumbled. He has the worst passer rating of any rookie when under duress, but leads the way among rookies when kept clean. When Nix is pressured, it’s chiefly of his own making. Through 13 weeks, Nix leads the league in percentage of pressures that the quarterback is responsible for, according to Pro Football Reference. That’s fine though! He’s a rookie. And Nix has shown a better feel for navigating a muddy pocket over the past month.

At this point, even the strongest naysayers should start looking for plots on Nix Island.

Grade: B+ – Some alarm bells below the surface but the growth is real.

Michael Penix Jr, Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta’s decision to draft Penix No 8 overall will always be tied to the team signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180m contract in free agency. The opportunity cost of passing up Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu, T’Vondre Sweat or another impact defensive lineman has been steep – and could cost the Falcons the NFC South.

But the flip side was that the team took out an insurance policy on Cousins, and that logic looks increasingly sound. In his last three games, Cousins has thrown zero touchdowns and turned the ball over 10 times. His arm strength has deteriorated to the point of derision, and poor decisions are being increasingly punished. We have not seen enough of Penix to know if he will be a short-term upgrade over Cousins or the long-term answer. But Cousins’ lack of mobility and failing arm mean that Atlanta should start finding the answers to those questions now.

Grade: Incomplete – Time to put him in, Coach.