Super Rugby round 12 done, seven to go. We’ve seen enough of the teams now that we can make mid-season(ish) report cards. But first, some observations: this year's Super Rugby has arguably been the most competitive since the competition's inception in 1996. The minnows have risen and have wreaked havoc on pre-season predictions. The Western Force and Reds' diametrically opposed positions on the table say it all. The Stormers, a team with a supposed impregnable defence long overdue for a maiden title, are in 14th place. And in the NZ conference, only a bonus point win separates 2014 champs the Chiefs from the last-placed Kiwi side the Blues.
Maybe the traditional powers have been complacent. One could certainly say that about the Reds who won the title in 2011 but are now humbly sat in 13th place. The Queensland team – still a very good side on paper – made the fatal mistake of trying to ease their way into the season, confident a low-risk game plan would see them safely through early rounds. That approach has been an unmitigated disaster. In stark contrast, the Waratahs entered the fray intent on carving up opposition defences from the get go. The Hurricanes too. Both teams have been absolutely brilliant to watch – their clash at the weekend the game of the season thus far. The Tahs and Canes have made fans laugh and cry in equal doses. But, crucially, they're still alive in 2014 and who'd bet against them in a sudden-death semi? Who dares, wins. The Reds just didn't get it.
The Crusaders may have been complacent too, but they have a reputation for slow starts and killing it down the home straight. They've won four on the trot – including a sobering deconstruction of comp favourites the Brumbies – and could well make that five against a demoralised Reds outfit at Suncorp this weekend. The real talking point in that match won't be the Crusaders winning five on the bounce, but whether the Reds could actually lose five straight. Queensland Rugby hasn't done losses like this since the dark days of 2009. These are dangerous days for coach Richard Graham.
Still in contention
Crusaders: Just a month ago, the Crusaders were looking down the barrel. Successive wins against the Lions, Cheetahs, Chiefs and Brumbies have seen them soar to second in the NZ conference. And with four home games to play, the Christchurch franchise is ideally placed to launch a bid for its eighth Super title, especially with Richie McCaw back and looking like he's never been away.
Brumbies: The front-running Australian side have an exciting and confident Tahs snapping at their heels. The Brumbies will need to regroup fast for Jake White and the Sharks this week after last week's big loss to the Crusaders. In fact, it shapes as a must-win game for the ACT side with the Tahs, one point behind the Brumbies, short odds for a four-try bonus point when they come off the bye against the Lions in round 14. Still this column’s title pick.
Chiefs: They've struggled with injuries to key players (most notably Aaron Cruden), which in turn has significantly impacted the team's normally reliable winning form. The Chiefs have a four-point break over the Crusaders but face a nightmare run home including playing the Blues and Hurricanes twice, the Waratahs (home) and the Highlanders in Dunedin. The Chiefs could find themselves in big, big trouble.
Sharks: The competition leaders have been convincing in South Africa, but their form on the road is less reliable. The Sharks only just edged the Rebels last Friday. It certainly wasn't a performance to rave about, although the strong suspicion is that White is saving the team's best for the Brumbies in Canberra this weekend – a grand final preview if you believe the pundits. If the Sharks do get one over the Brumbies, they'll be hard to dislodge from the top spot come season's end.
Waratahs: The Waratahs, sitting at 6-4 and second on the Australian conference, are very much genuine title threats. The Tahs, alongside the Hurricanes, are why people watch Super Rugby. Brilliant ball-playing one day, LOL comic errors the next. Fans love it. And in Tahs coach Michael Cheika, Super Rugby has its own version of Chelsea's José Mourinho (in personality terms, at least. The Tahs are slightly more exciting on the field than John Terry and Co). Cheika, who was recently disciplined for a verbal spat with a nosey cameraman, appears to have been playing ducks and drakes with fullback Israel Folau, who has been far too quiet in recent weeks. The rest of the comp should be on red alert for Folau-centric attacking plays come the play-offs. Cheika has form for this kind of subterfuge.
Western Force: We won't disrespect the Force and list them as dark horses. They're contenders and deservedly so. The Force, third in the Australian conference, will do it tough on the run home, but it's foolish to underestimate them.
Dark horses
Hurricanes (third in NZ conference)/Blues (fourth) /Highlanders (fifth): Plenty has been said about how strong the Australian conference has been this year. With all due respect, the NZ conference looks the stronger of the two. The standard and quality of play in NZ has been exceptional in recent rounds, to the extent that three teams who might not even make the play-offs could probably win the whole damn thing if they did.
The Bulls: The Bulls really ought to be in the dearly departed category below. However, at 4-6 and one draw they remain a mathematical chance. They’re not good enough to win the title though.
The departed
Reds (see above for details).
Rebels (almost, but not quite there yet).
Cheetahs (still a very handy side, but haven’t coped well with not flying under the radar anymore).
Lions (started with a bang, then came the whimper).
Stormers (biggest flop of 2014).
Talking points
• After months of rumours, it’s official: Super Rugby will expand in 2016 to include three new teams – one each from Argentina, South Africa and an as yet unconfirmed zone (most likely Japan). The Australian players’ union campaigned against expansion, but Australian Super franchise CEOs went with the governing body when push came to shove. The new format is somewhat confusing as presented, but that should change when an actual draw is finalised and all the teams are known. The prospect of expanding into Asia before the 2019 World Cup in Japan is an exciting one. ARU boss Bill Pulver should be commended for resisting pressure to shut off Australian rugby from the outside world.
• There’s a strong rumour Quade Cooper is unhappy at the Reds. It’s understandable given the season the Reds are having. Sources say Cooper’s frustration with his poor form in an underperforming side have been exacerbated by Matt Toomua’s stellar season at the Brumbies. There’s talk Cooper will start looking abroad for a contract if Toomua is selected ahead of him as Wallaby first five-eighth. Cooper’s agent Khoder Nasser is keeping a close eye on proceedings. If Cooper misses out on a Wallaby starting berth, and the ensuing financial top ups that entails, Nasser is expected to make an overseas play well before the end of the 2015 World Cup when it becomes a buyer’s market. Toulon has been mentioned.
Super 15 Round 12 Results: Blues 44 d Reds 14; Sharks 22 d Rebels 16; Crusaders 40 d Brumbies 20; Chiefs 38 d Lions 8;
Waratahs 39 d Hurricanes 30; Stormers 29 d Highlanders 28; Bulls 26 d Cheetahs 21.
