It's an open secret James O'Connor will play for the Reds next season. The Reds this week refused to confirm or deny whether O'Connor, who was unceremoniously sacked from the Wallabies last year after a drunken customer service rant at Perth Airport, has agreed to a two-year deal. That refusal is understandable given the Todd Carney 'bubbling' controversy; this week is not the news cycle to announce the signing of an athlete with a track record for dodgy behaviour. Of course, O'Connor's misdemeanors in his time as an Australian Rugby Union employee pale in comparison to Carney's long list of outrageous deeds in the NRL. However, there is a common theme with this pair of troubled athletes – nothing predicts behaviour quite like behaviour. On that score, the ARU, several times bitten by O'Connor, have been quick to rule out a top-up contract.
Unquestionably, the Reds could do with a player of O'Connor's quality given their unexpected and humbling regression from 2011 champions to 2014 wooden spoon contenders. But he's certainly not the world-class player Australian media have long made him out to be. Far from it. In fact, it's hard to recall one of his 44 Tests where it could be said he was truly world class against top tier opponents. The enduring hype around O'Connor is probably a legacy of the media frenzy around him being the youngest player, at 17, to play Super Rugby in 2008 and his three-try Test debut against Italy that same year.
Granted, O'Connor's a very good player with a solid command of basic skills. But no more than that. He’s no Campese. And Italy are, well, Italy. He has never worried the All Blacks, nor the British & Irish Lions who made him look like a schoolboy last year. The ARU's decision not to entice O'Connor's return from London Irish with top-up money it can ill afford to spend is spot on. He’s not worth the investment on two counts – 1) His true player performance rating against his disciplinary record, and; 2) That money should be kept for Henry Speight, the Fiji-born Brumbies winger who becomes eligible for the Wallabies in September. Speight, who is highly rated by the Wallabies coach Ewen McKenzie, is arguably the best winger in Super Rugby at the moment and would have been an All Black had he remained playing provincial rugby for Waikato. In time if not already, NZ will view him as the one who got away. A Wallabies back three of Israel Folau, Speight and Adam Ashley-Cooper (if he has to play on the wing to accommodate Tevita Kuradrani at centre) could potentially be the most lethal counter-attacking combination in world rugby.
So, for 2015 at least, the Reds will be footing O'Connor's wages bill by themselves – as well as managing the risk he poses for repeat misconduct. There has been sympathetic media commentary that O'Connor's return to Australia to play sans ARU top-up is of itself an act of contrition and financial penance. The redemption narrative ends with the return of a prodigal son to Wallaby gold. It's a good yarn but nonsense all the same. O'Connor's only coming back because he's a lesser player on Europe's soft underfoot winter-pitches. He's a dry-track runner who plays his best footy with the sun on his back. He would know that. Alas, with the emergence of Speight and the ARU's determination to avoid Carney-type repeat offending from known troublemakers, O'Connor's Wallaby days are probably well behind him. There's nothing to suggest he won't misbehave again. He may say he won't. But he's said that before too.
Tahs short odds for title but watch out for the Blues
From risky investments to smart money. Most of that's on the Waratahs for a maiden Super Rugby crown. The Tahs will finish the regular season top of the heap if they can snare a bonus point win in one of their remaining two matches, against the Highlanders this weekend and in next weekend’s final round match against the Reds. It should be a Suncorp sell-out. A top of the table finish, a home semifinal and the right to host the final should they clear the semi obstacle has the Tahs well placed for the title with likely final opponent the Sharks having, as all South African sides do, a reputation for traveling like oysters.
It would be foolish to write off the Kiwi teams though, especially the Chiefs and the Blues who are miraculously still alive in what has arguably been the most competitive Super competition on record. Don't rule out the Brumbies either, who are still in the hunt, although they'll need results to go their way. Indeed, one or two final twists in the final two rounds wouldn't surprise at all. Of the so-called dark horses, the Blues are hot right now and more than capable of tiptoeing into the final to burgle the trophy. It would be an effort for the ages but they have the players to do it, most of them All Blacks played back into form courtesy of the June series against England. The Aucklanders have won four of their last six matches, including putting away the Tahs 21-13 in round 11.
Talking points
• Kurtley Beale says he's unhappy about being used as a Test bench player by McKenzie and is considering his options. Beale told the Sydney Morning Herald's Georgina Robinson he saw himself as a starting player and not an impact sub as was the case in the France series. "I know where I'm at rugby-wise, but if they see it differently then that's when I have to start to look at the other options I have," Beale said. The hugely talented utility back has copped some flak for his stance. Wayne Smith, writing in The Australian, said "rugby owes Kurtley Beale nothing". Smith notes the ARU's support for Beale during his well-documented troubles associated with alcohol and he goes on to lament what he says is a "sense of entitlement underpinning Beale's stance, which stops just short of saying: pick me in the starting side or I'm out of here". Not sure about that one. Beale has every right to be upset. As this column has said many times already, Beale alongside Adam Ashley-Cooper are the best 12-13 combination to unleash the attacking talents of Israel Folau. McKenzie may himself come to realise that but only after another fruitless Bledisloe Cup campaign. Let's hope Beale is still here when selectors finally tweak.
• The ARU's looming negotiations with Fox Sports on a new pay-TV broadcast deal will be robust to say the least. The parties' positions are relatively straightforward. The ARU wants to maximise revenue by shaving off some previously "live and exclusive rights" to a free-to-air broadcaster. It quite rightly believes it needs that wider coverage to grow the game. Fox Sports, on the other hand, wants exclusive content only as has been the case since Super Rugby began. And there is speculation it would half its $25m fee if any content goes free-to-air. The one area that hasn't been publicly mentioned – and it should be – is internet broadcast rights. Foxtel, the pay TV company under which Fox Sports operates, is on the nose with many digital consumers for its pricing model whereby you have to subscribe to entire packages even though you might only be interested in just one show. Game of Thrones is the most commonly cited example. To that end, Foxtel has done deals with iTunes to block the sales of individual GoT episodes in Australia; it's Foxtel or nothing ... or illegal downloads. The consumer verdict is unanimous – a world record for GoT illegal torrent downloads. Foxtel's pricing model for Super Rugby is based on the same model – subscribe to a package or walk. Is the ARU losing online viewers who don't want to subscribe to Foxtel's all-or-nothing proposition? Is it time for the ARU to ring fence internet broadcast rights away from Pay TV and shop them around to ventures with business models more responsive to digital consumers? Is there a better way to distribute Super Rugby and Australian rugby content on the internet?
Super Rugby round 17 results: Highlanders 29 d Chiefs 25; Reds 36 d Rebels 20; Hurricanes 16 d Crusaders 9; Waratahs 39 d Brumbies 8; Force 40 d Blues 14.
