It should be fanciful, even for a country such as Wales who have a depressing tendency to jerk knees and change coaches the year before a World Cup, to say that Warren Gatland's job is under threat two years after he guided the men in red to a grand slam, but he needs a convincing result against Italy tomorrow afternoon to stop murmurs of discontent turning into anything more sinister.
Wales may have done more than any other side to haul this year's Six Nations above the forgettable, but they have been more slapdash than slick, giving away soft tries and showing a chronic lack of discipline. Gatland talked last November about breaking into the top five of the world rankings, but there is more chance of them dropping out of the top 10 after losing seven of their last 11 matches, excluding last summer's tour to North America, with the victories coming against Italy, Samoa, Argentina and Scotland.
"I am not hiding behind anything," Gatland said. "I am still very much at the front of this and remain very proud to be Wales' coach. I want not just to continue in the position but to show people I am passionate about it. I am frustrated because we have not executed what we are capable of as a side and I have been getting plenty of advice. It has been tough but I am not going to crawl away."
Gatland has been undermined by injuries that have deprived him, at various times, of eight of last summer's Lions. Mike Phillips and Gethin Jenkins are making their first starts in this Six Nations and it will be the first time the front row has played together since the second Test between the Lions and South Africa in Pretoria last June.
A lack of depth in certain positions has been exposed but Gatland has also been eccentric in some of his selections. The choice of the left-footed Tom James on the right wing at Twickenham backfired, the out-of-form Gareth Cooper played in the opening two games, hauled off at half-time against Scotland, Deiniol Jones did not justify his surprise inclusion against France and the 18-year-old wing Tom Prydie will make his debut tomorrow afternoon having started just two matches for the Ospreys.
Gatland has persisted with playing James Hook at outside-centre. While it worked against England and Scotland, his lack of experience in the position told against France and, especially, Ireland. Given the way the game is moving away from the safety-first tactics that predominated after the introduction of the experimental law variations, and not just in the Super 14, Wales should consider returning him to outside-half.
Hook started there under Gatland, but was deemed to be too uncommunicative to be properly effective. A player who relies on instinct rather than routine, he was considered a risk in the age of austerity but if Wales are to maximise their attacking potential, they need him closer to the action; neither has playing Jamie Roberts at inside-centre worked, even though he won the man of the series with the Lions in the position.
He had Brian O'Driscoll with him then and he is a more natural outside-centre, strong in the challenge and blessed with the pace of a wing. Wales's game is not revolving around Roberts at 12, as it should, and they have struggled to bring their back three into a game until they are chasing in the second half.
Italy have asked for the roof to be open tomorrow as rain is forecast, with their coach, Nick Mallett, admitting that they cannot play at Wales's pace. They have been forced to make three changes from the side selected with the centre Andrea Masi joining the forwards Carlo del Fava and Paul Derbyshire in pulling out. They will look to frustrate Wales and the home side will need to show more shape and coherence if they are to equal last year's finishing position of fourth.
Wales: Byrne; Prydie, Hook, Roberts, Williams; S Jones, Phillips; Jenkins, Rees, A Jones, Davies, Charteris, Thomas, Warburton, R Jones (capt).
Replacements: Bennett, James, Gough, Delve, Peel, Bishop, Shanklin.
Italy: McLean; Robertson, Canale, Garcia, Mirco Bergamasco; Gower, Canavosio; Perugini, Ghiraldini (capt), Castrogiovanni, Del Fava, Geldenhuys, Derbyshire, Mauro Bergamasco, Zanni.
Replacements: Ongaro, Aguero, Bortolami, Sole, Tebaldi, Bocchino, Pratichetti.
