Kevin McCarra 

Is searing attack or slack defence behind Premier League goal glut?

Money has accelerated the high-scoring trend, but this also seems to be period of decline for defenders
  
  

Striking statistics: click for full-size image
Striking statistics: click for full-size image. Photograph: The Guardian Photograph: The Guardian

"It's about time we won 1-0," said Sir Alex Ferguson. He was luxuriating in the austere victory at Goodison Park on Saturday. A remark of that sort coming from the manager of Manchester United, a club historically associated with verve, carries the whiff of heresy. Ferguson, though, was expressing a mood that must be shared by many of his counterparts.

The Premier League is certainly not cheap, but it has turned cheerful. There has been an average this season of 2.98 goals per match. This compares with 2.83 in the Bundesliga, a competition renowned for its crowd‑pleasing culture. The figure for Spain is 2.52. Serie A, mindful of its famed stringency, confines itself to 2.46.

Of the most prominent European football nations, England is in a madcap mood. Ferguson was in earnest about that result against Everton. He would have felt as if events, or the lack of them, showed the afternoon bowing to his will at last. Other games have left him as a bystander. It must have delighted Ferguson when United beat Arsenal 8‑2, and the misery would have been searing in the 6‑1 loss to Manchester City, but in each case matters cannot have gone as he had anticipated.

There is a trend to all this scoring, and money has accelerated the process, even if United are no spendthrifts. While Chelsea's purchase of Fernando Torres in January for £50m may have left Liverpool in substantial profit, the Stamford Bridge club was trying to set itself apart and was therefore in the mood to meet any price. The same outlook applied that month when David Luiz arrived from Benfica for £21m.

He embodied a certain idealism, as there is a trace of the old-fashioned libero about him, but this season, with injuries hindering him, he has started just two of Chelsea's 10 Premier League matches. While it is a little unusual to see deals of such magnitude go through at that stage of the season, City were raising the tempo. Edin Dzeko had joined them on 7 January. The deals that took Torres and David Luiz to Stamford Bridge did not go through until the very end of that month.

There is no proof that Chelsea were being hustled by City's actions into completing the transfers, but the clubs were locked together by a readiness to meet whatever price had been set by the selling club. That policy has not paid off so far for Chelsea and, after such expense, it was ironic at the weekend that they should be outgunned 5‑3 on their own ground by financially circumspect Arsenal.

It does not follow, however, that the shock and awe tactic, on the field or in the transfer market, will fail. At City, Roberto Mancini has committed himself to a more expansive style and the side have not kept a clean sheet in any competition since 1 October. The defensive record, broadly speaking, continues to be impressive, but the side are experiencing difficulties in the Champions League.

Villarreal were thwarted in stoppage time at Eastlands when an exquisite pass from James Milner led to Sergio Agüero's winner. City have been part of a switch towards expansiveness. The effect of that is accentuated by random factors in the Premier League at large that have left some sides less secure.

There are doubts now about Rio Ferdinand's capacity to play regularly for United and he did not get off the bench in the Everton game. The outcome had as much to do with the opposition's predictability as with the authority of Nemanja Vidic at centre‑half.

It was only the fourth occasion in 12 Premier League fixtures that United have avoided conceding a goal. This seems to be a period of decline for defenders. John Terry has always had the look of a player combating his own aches and pains as much as the opposition's forwards. It is premature to suppose his time is over but hardly anyone would have anticipated Arsenal running in five goals against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Fabio Capello should be fretting about the make-up of the England back four at Euro 2012.

Gary Cahill started in the 2-2 draw with Montenegro in Podgorica even though the manager would rather have had a centre-half steeped in Champions League experience. For those, unlike Capello, who are free to enjoy the volatility that comes when defences appear at a disadvantage, it will be good news if it takes a while before order is restored.

Tottenham Hotspur's play was exquisite and lethal on Sunday, especially in the move that led to the third goal, from Gareth Bale, but scoring was a relief to the hosts as well as a joy, as Queens Park Rangers had looked as if they might just level the score at 2-2. This is no time to be a defender in the Premier League, but it is a moment to be relished by spectators.

FORMER PLAYERS AND MANAGER GIVE THEIR VIEWS …

Ray Houghton, former Ireland midfielder

"This goal glut is down to dreadful defending, simply as that. I've felt for ages that the art of defending has gone from most Premier League sides, and results this season, like Arsenal's win at Chelsea, prove that. It's hard to pinpoint why this has happened, but ultimately it comes down to how teams are being coached. Perhaps they are not doing much defensive work, perhaps the defensive coaches are not good enough. It's not just about the back four; teams are not defending from the front like they used to, strikers are dropping off and allowing the opposition to build up pressure. When that happens, lots of chances are going to be created"

Linvoy Primus, former Portsmouth defender

"There have been defensive mistakes but this is largely down to the rise in quality of creative players in the Premier League. Sergio Agüero and Juan Mata have come in, while the likes of David Silva and Luiz Suárez are improving. These are players who not only score goals but create them too, and such is their threat that defenders are struggling to stop them. At Arsenal, it is also their creative players, such as Theo Walcott and Aaron Ramsey, who are in form right now. As the season goes on we should see defences getting to grips with the talent in the league as well as improving their own form. As such, there should be fewer crazy scorelines"

John Scales, former England defender

"The teams that have suffered heavy defeats this season have all struggled to put out a consistent defence. Manchester United have not had Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic for long spells, while Arsenal have introduced new players to their back line. Chelsea have also chopped and changed and when a side does that there are going to be problems. Beyond that, the game is undoubtedly changing here. Teams like Manchester City and Chelsea are playing in a more continental, between-the-lines style and that is something English defences are not used to. Once they become more clued up to this, we should start seeing more clean sheets"

Joe Royle, former Everton manager

"Most of the goals are being scored by the top sides and Roberto Mancini subtly changing Manchester City's philosophy from "we will not be beaten'" to "we will win" has made a big difference. Mancini has top attacking players at his disposal and they have arrived at a time when injuries and age are catching up with top defenders such as Rio Ferdinand and John Terry. From an England viewpoint it's worrying because there is suddenly a shortage of really top English defenders. Equally, a lot of the goals are being scored by foreign players; Wayne Rooney apart, how many truly international quality English strikers are there in the Premier League?"

Nigel Winterburn, former Arsenal left-back

"Teams appear to be playing in a more adventurous style, and that not only increases the amount of goals they score but also the amount they concede, as defences become more vulnerable to the counterattack the higher up the pitch they go. Saying that, some sides are just making basic errors, especially at set pieces. What we may see as the season goes on is a reduction in the big thrashings but a wider spread of two- and three-goal winning-margins, including among the promoted clubs. After how Blackpool performed last year they seem to recognise that in the Premier League, attack is the best form of defence and that you might as well go for it"

 

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