It is a personal weakness to have spent the past decade promoting Scotland in the Six Nations. Every year is going to be their year and it never is. They do not even come close, their best finish being third in 2006. They have been fourth twice, fifth in the past four seasons and sixth and last in 2004 and 2007. Never second and never, ever first.

This year? Scotland are going to make their long-awaited breakthrough, despite having three away games and the big two, England and France, at home and despite them leaning perhaps towards Dan Parks at fly-half when their real surge to the title may depend on somebody a little more mercurial, somebody who must pose a running threat to defenders.

There is a list, stretching from Duncan Weir, Ruaridh Jackson, Greig Laidlaw to Harry Leonard, of outside-halves who might perform one day with the same authority and grace as John Rutherford, or the impishness of Gregor Townsend, but for the moment it seems Scotland's coach, Andy Robinson, will open pragmatically and hand the conductor's baton to Parks. The opening game is against England and not an occasion to be settled by subtlety or elegance. This is about taming the frenzy of day one.

But efficiency is a factor and here Scotland come into the reckoning. No pack wins faster ball than the Scottish lineout and the forwards that engage at the breakdown. Going into the championship with a genuine No7, an openside of quality in John Barclay, gives Scotland an advantage and there is more to come, because from Ross Ford as their captain and hooker in the front row to the tallest of their second and back rows – that will be Richie Gray – they are athletic and supple and will relish playing against the instinctively more static England forwards.

There is nothing new there. But what next? Here lies the difficulty because what is supposed to be a benefit – having the ball – often becomes the Scottish question: so, what's this thing, then? Booting the ball into the Murrayfield air is fine but not all the time. Predictability plays into the hands of the defence. You can get away with a scrum that is destroyed – Munster at Northampton, for example – and win if you display enough wit and invention elsewhere.

It is still so far so good for Scotland. They still make enough half-breaks through Graeme Morrison and Sean Lamont to be up there with the best. But then comes the real sticking point. No thrust, surge, probe, dart or clean break ever seems to lead to a try. Scotland are smoothness itself until it comes to the last piece of the puzzle: crossing the line.

Now there is much about Sonny Bill Williams, the New Zealand All Blacks' impact player off the bench, that is most un-Scottish. The flamboyance is more Pacific than Firth of Forth but there is no need to be frightened by geography. What SBW does is simple: he makes a half-break and looks to make a pass immediately. He is often accused of being all tricks but he is a selfless showman. His trademark flip out of the back of his hand is a gift to others.

He is thinking of making the pass even before he goes into contact.

Morrison and Lamont are looking to go clean through contact, which means that when they emerge on the other side, and even if the tackler has been left on the floor, the momentum of the ball-carrier is fading. Scotland's attacks lose energy as they progress, while the All Blacks, through the early pass, pick up speed. This rapid escalation in attacking potential is exaggerated by the difference in velocity between the passer in contact and the recipient in space. Defenders like to move in a line at a uniform speed; stopping and starting bothers them.

The second bit is the whereabouts of the support runners. The All Blacks behind SBW know not only what he is trying to achieve but also where to go for it to happen. They are running in anticipation of the pass – the second event – to a point beyond the first, the run into contact. Supporting All Blacks frequently overrun the ball but it is because they are thinking of the pass that often cannot be made. Better to go past empty-handed than to be absent when it comes.

There is a general anxiety, especially on the heavier playing surfaces of Europe, not to be left behind as a support runner, but it is amazing how quickly the gap between ball-carrier and his back-up shrinks as the first event approaches. Even if it is a simple matter of drawing the defender and giving the pass before contact – without any contact at all – the player in possession will slow. And the support runner must bide his time and make his move to allow the movement to regain momentum. It is not a flat-out, maximum velocity operation but a series of timed runs.

Scotland are sometimes accused of lacking pace. But when it comes to finishing speed, my impression is that they have more than enough. The general tempo of their game is certainly high enough. But can they manipulate speed and space to turn their mini‑breaks into tries? It is not about pace but change of pace. It is not about the next place but the one after that. My prediction is that this year they can and will. If only I had not said it every year.