Three rounds of games gone, two to go and four teams tied at the top of the Six Nations. You wouldn't put your shirt on the outcome of this season's championship but, even though history suggests otherwise, I see the pecking order staying the same to the end – if only because the odds are stacked in Ireland's favour.
On one hand they have done enough to be sitting at the top of the pile and, with Italy to come next and the most favourable of draws on the final day, the odds are on Ireland extending their points advantage over England.
Be it so, then they will have deserved their title, but with all the games in the final round being played on the same day, surely they should all start at the same time? Instead Ireland will kick off in Paris with the huge advantage of knowing precisely what they need. OK, they may still have to win, but it is a vastly different job going about a nine‑point win than it is to tackle a 20-point one.
However, quick analysis of the runners and riders suggests Ireland are getting their just deserts and that their autumn promise, when they ran the All Blacks so close, was no fluke.
They have express power up front, great game management from Jonny Sexton (though that thumb injury is a concern) and strength in the tackle area from Brian O'Driscoll and Gordon D'Arcy – who have been at it for a decade, after all. The emergence of the back-row forwards Peter O'Mahony and Chris Henry (remember Ireland have been without Sean O'Brien) and Rob Kearney's return to his consistent best at full-back have been further boosts.
Top marks, though, go to Joe Schmidt, the first Ireland coach to harness the best of both Munster and Leinster. In turn this has helped Jamie Heaslip – not such a big guy, although he plays like one with added pace – back to the form that slipped away last season. If there is one grumble, you have to say Ireland have been a wing short – a Tommy Bowe – and, although he is returning from injury, might not Simon Zebo have figured?
England come with a slice of humble pie but suddenly you can see the shape of the side that may take on the world next season. After the autumn we knew about the pack and the world‑class back five, but in one short month the doubters have seen more key pieces fit into the jigsaw.
Danny Care's maturity helps Owen Farrell stand flatter, making him more of a threat, while the fly-half's defensive strength has helped Billy Twelvetrees with that aspect of his game. Add the impressive Luther Burrell, out of position at outside- rather than inside-centre, but a try scorer and a forceful defender, and England are getting close to being the kind of complete team Stuart Lancaster believes Ireland to be.
Like Schmidt, Lancaster has a gem at full-back but issues at wing. While it is easy to see a place for Marland Yarde, who offers something different, it was pleasing that the England coach looked to the future rather than the comfort of the past when he ran short of wide men. The result is the arrival of Jack Nowell, barely a year after his Premiership debut with an Exeter side whose adventure is not necessarily the stuff of which Test sides are made.
Wales, my favourites a month ago, have a season to rescue. The simplicity of Warren Gatland's style depends on his players really lifting themselves, and in Dublin they obviously could not. Last Friday night against France was better, but that depends on how big a threat you consider Philippe Saint‑André's side to be.
Shaun Edwards's defence was superb and will be for England at Twickenham next weekend when Jonathan Davies will probably be back, and I would like to see Rhys Webb stay at scrum-half. Mike Phillips's physicality has become too predictable, whereas Webb's passing game offers more to a back line of considerable threat. The Osprey's passing game could itself become predictable but at the moment I would prefer someone who passes nine times out of 10 to someone who runs three times out of four.
France? Try as I might, I cannot see Jules Plisson and Jean-Marc Doussain as Test half-backs and, while France are dotted with individual talent – Brice Dulin, Yoann Huget, Wesley Fofana, Gaël Fickou, Louis Picamoles, Yannick Nyanga – that's it. They play for themselves. Only when they tire of going alone do they hand on the baton for another individual to throw himself into the fray.
Thursday's disciplinary decision preventing Morgan Parra from playing at Murrayfield will not have helped and, after Scotland's uplifting win in Rome, I can see them inflicting another Six Nations disappointment on Saint-André.
Murrayfield isn't France's happiest hunting ground and they could be a busted flush by the time Ireland wrap up this season's championship with their teatime visit to Paris.
