As Martin Johnson knows from personal experience it takes a genuinely good England team to win in the southern hemisphere. Thirteen defeats in 15 away Tests in Australia tells its own sad story and only the world champion team of 2003 – twice – have successfully tied the Wallabies down in their own backyard. "You have to be good enough, you can't fake it," said Johnson, aware his squad's moment of truth is fast approaching.
Even if the touring team do not reclaim the Cook Cup, Johnson is not alone in demanding conclusive proof that his recipe for World Cup success is at least simmering. The late withdrawal of Matt Giteau with a hip problem has scarcely diminished English prospects of winning Saturday's first Test but a spikier, more proactive performance remains non-negotiable. "We've got the ability to win a Test match in Australia without doubt but you need a team that has some belief and tenacity," said Johnson. "You have to demonstrate you're not just here to pick up a pay cheque and enjoy the scenery."
England, in other words, are being instructed to repay their coaches' faith. Giteau's absence has, if anything, upped the ante. If the hosts cannot be beaten now, in the absence of their entire first-choice front row, two more influential forwards in James Horwill and Wycliff Palu and the backline threats of Giteau, Adam Ashley-Cooper and Stirling Mortlock, they may not be toppled for some time. Given his team lost to Scotland last autumn, Robbie Deans has done a considerable repair job.
If Johnson had been slightly bolder in his selections over the past 12 months, England might be on a similarly steep upward curve. They have, at least, unearthed one potential world-beater in Dan Cole and, once he is finally trusted to start a Test, Ben Youngs could well develop into another. Cole has won five caps but he has already impressed both his coaches and his team-mates. "I think he's got world-class written all over him," said Steve Thompson, his fellow front-rower. "He's like the old serial killer, quiet but effective."
To assume the untried Wallaby front-row will be passive victims of the unblinking Mr Cole, though, is to ignore the lessons of a century of Anglo‑Australian sporting rivalry. "When their backs are against the wall they always come out with their chests puffed up and that's what we're expecting," said Thompson. He reckons Wallaby scrummaging has been on the up, so to speak, ever since their ex-forwards coach, Michael Foley, returned from Bath with a few European tricks of the trade. The good news for England is that tomorrow's game will be refereed by Wales's Nigel Owens who, fresh from a northern hemisphere season, will not tolerate props who hit the floor frequently. The International Rugby Board, which is still declining to extend matchday Test squads from 22 to 23 in line with the Premiership and the Heineken Cup, will be praying the spectre of uncontested scrums does not raise its ugly head.
As for the Wallabies, seeking a hat-trick of wins over England for the third time in their history, a mere 30% of clean set-piece possession might be enough. When they play the game at pace there are few better at outsmarting defences and Giteau's replacement, Berrick Barnes, is no slouch. With the free-running Digby Ioane and the 19-year-old James O'Connor, who has three tries under his belt against England this week, lurking outside Quade Cooper they will be hard to contain in conditions that should be virtually ideal. England's task is to stop them at source – "I think we're getting better all the time but on fast hard pitches our anticipation has to be better," said Johnson – and to attempt to play the game on their own uncompromising terms. Only then can their frowning guru hope to banish an antipodean hoodoo.
Australia: O'Connor (Western Force); Ioane (Reds), Horne (Waratahs), Barnes (Waratahs), Mitchell (Waratahs); Cooper (Reds), Burgess (Waratahs); Daley (Reds), Faingaa (Reds), Ma'afu (Brumbies), Mumm (Waratahs), Sharpe (Western Force), Elsom (Brumbies, capt), Pocock (Western Force), Brown (Western Force).
Replacements: Edmonds (Brumbies), Slipper (Reds), Chisholm (Brumbies), Hodgson (Western Force), Genia (Reds), Hynes (Reds), Beale (Waratahs).
England: Foden (Northampton); Cueto (Sale), Tindall (Gloucester), Hape (Bath), Ashton (Northampton); Flood (Leicester), Care (Harlequins); Payne (Wasps), Thompson (Brive), Cole (Leicester), Shaw (Wasps), Palmer (Stade Francais), Croft (Leicester), Moody (Leicester, capt), Easter (Harlequins).
Replacements: Chuter (Leicester), Wilson (Bath), Lawes (Northampton), Haskell (Stade Francais), Youngs (Leicester), Wilkinson (Toulon), Tait (Sale).
Referee: N Owens (Wales).
