Guardian writers' prediction: 8th Odds to win league: 100-1

Could this be the first season when Aston Villa go backwards under Martin O'Neill? For the past two they have finished sixth but unless there is a flurry of transfer activity it is difficult to believe that the Irishman can manage it for a third time. From the poor form at the end of last season to the departure of two of the club's most influential players and a worrying lack of new signings, the portents are not too promising.

O'Neill is aware of the shortcomings and acknowledged last week that he needs five players to "give us a chance". The Villa manager is renowned for prevaricating in the market but even by his standards business has been slow. Stewart Downing is the only new recruit hitherto and the former Middlesbrough winger is not available until December due to injury. Furthermore his favoured position is left-wing, where Ashley Young has excelled.

Central defence and central midfield are the biggest areas of concern, however, with Gareth Barry's transfer to Manchester City and Martin Laursen's retirement leaving huge holes to fill. There are no like-for-like replacements either, with neither Steve Sidwell nor Nigel Reo-Coker blessed with Barry's composure. Further back Carlos Cuéllar, the former Rangers defender, is still taking time to adapt to the English game after an unconvincing first season.

O'Neill hopes to strengthen the defence by agreeing a fee with Portsmouth for Sylvain Distin, and there is little doubt that the Frenchman's experience would be invaluable alongside Curtis Davies, whose performances last season were markedly better when partnered by Laursen rather than the also departed Zat Knight. That leaves central midfield still to be addressed; a problem that could be exacerbated if Stilian Petrov faces an extended spell on the sidelines after dislocating a shoulder.

Villa's squad is so threadbare that the merest sign of an injury must send a shiver down O'Neill's spine. Having operated with fewer players than any other Premier League club last season, they have become lighter still. Thus it must come as a relief to the manager that a promising group of young players is emerging including Marc Albrighton, a teenage winger who caught the eye during the Peace Cup in Sevilla.

The one area where O'Neill does have options is up front. He is expected to play two from Gabriel Agbonlahor, Emile Heskey and John Carew, although Villa were arguably at their most effective last term when playing in a 4–5–1 formation. Agbonlahor adapted to that role superbly but his form tailed off badly during the second half of the season, a period that coincided with the arrival of Heskey, who also struggled.

There is little doubt that Villa have the pace and power going forward to unsettle opponents, particularly when Young is supplying the ammunition. O'Neill might have been guilty of hyperbole when he likened the England international to Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo last season, but no one at Villa underestimates his value to the team. Had Young departed this summer, Villa's hopes of finishing in the top six would have disappeared, too.

As it is, they have an outside chance of establishing themselves among the top order, as long as O'Neill can significantly add to his squad. Even then, though, it cannot be taken for granted. He believes Manchester City are now part of a "genuine top five" and has even gone as far as to suggest that Mark Hughes's side should be favourites for the title, leaving Everton and Tottenham as Villa's main rivals for sixth.

Maybe the alarm bells should have been ringing at the end of last season when Randy Lerner, Villa's owner, suggested "more modest" spending this summer. It is difficult to criticise the American, who has invested heavily since he took control three years ago, but if the club are to compete at the top then big money needs to be made available again. O'Neill is among the Premier League's top managers but he is not a miracle worker.

In: Stewart Downing (Middlesbrough, £12m).

Out: Gareth Barry (Manchester City, £12m), Stuart Taylor (Manchester City, free), Zat Knight (Bolton Wanderers, £5m), Martin Laursen (retired).