When the World Cup began, it was generally held in New Zealand that the All Blacks would worry most, if they were to worry at all, about Australia. This was based on the immediate past – the 25-20 defeat by the Wallabies in the final Test of the Tri‑Nations in August – but also on a deeper historical trait. Australians do not knowingly allow themselves to show the deference before the All Blacks that seems to weaken the limbs of many other travellers to this land.
The tournament has duly delivered the fixture, not quite down the predicted path, but with all the sense of anticipation born of those suspicions. A lot has happened in the few short weeks since Radike Samo, from No8, scorched down the field in Brisbane to confirm that Australia were capable of playing in a compellingly unpredictable way. Samo's burst was good enough to qualify him for a place on the wing in the pool game against Russia, although his switch of position had more to do with an injury crisis in the camp. Australia had to reconfigure their personnel, just as they had to rethink their whole playing philosophy after defeat by Ireland.
It would not be correct to say Australia have found it difficult to temper their natural inclinations towards an expressive style and settle on something more pragmatic. To win the World Cups of 1991 and 1999 they were only too happy to turn all heavyweight and cautious. They embraced the whole idea of "tournament rugby" long before it dawned on everyone else that the Webb Ellis Cup is not a poetry prize.
Australia, however, had to readjust here a little sooner than expected after being upset by Ireland at Eden Park. The Wallabies had a little difficulty in the first half of their first pool game, against Italy, but had eased away in the second by allowing their most imaginative runners, Kurtley Beale in particular, to increase the rhythm of the game and take the ball away from the Italian forwards.
Ireland and injuries changed all that. The Wallaby scrum, traditionally viewed by European teams as a point of weakness, had given little cause for concern during the Tri‑Nations, but now it was squeezed by the Irish, and, more important, penalised by the referee, Bryce Lawrence. The Australian set-piece has given few signs since that it is strong enough to provide the solid base necessary for "tournament rugby".
It was pushed around by South Africa in the quarter-final in Wellington, And if the lineout stood up to Victor Matfield – never easy – it was only in a defensive context. South Africa had 76% of the territory.
So Australia find themselves in the semi-final of the World Cup, unable to play either their expansive or their pragmatic game. That makes their recovery after Ireland even more remarkable.
The difference between being battered by Ireland and belted by South Africa was David Pocock, who turned in a virtuoso performance on the open side of the back row. He was a marvel. Now this may sound churlish, but he was helped by two factors. The first was the early departure of Heinrich Brussow, a rival for the role of king of the breakdown. Second was the complete disintegration of any semblance of order at that very area of the game. What has developed during this tournament after a tackle, far from being a bubble that can only be entered with care and only by players on their feet, is a landing-zone for human missiles.
Pocock, normally a vision of perfect structural engineering, the unmovable arch over the ball, was as guilty as anyone of ending up on the ground. But those were the rules of engagement on that particular day, and presumably will remain so for the rest of the World Cup. It will take an incredibly strong referee to restore order at the post-tackle situation.
Pocock against Richie McCaw should be one of the mouthwatering duels of the World Cup. But perhaps the scales have tipped in favour of the Australian. McCaw, the best player of his generation, is playing with an injured foot. He already has an extra duty to perform; looking after young Aaron Cruden should the replacement for the replacement (Colin Slade) for Dan Carter be selected by the All Blacks at 10.
A fully fit McCaw would find a fully restored Pocock – he tellingly missed the Ireland game through injury – a handful now. A McCaw on one leg would still make most teams, but will be of limited effectiveness in the one game at the World Cup that worried New Zealand.
Australia have come this far in unusual form, neither solid nor flowing. The feeling is that they nevertheless have one point-scoring performance in them. New Zealanders are still worried.
