It has become a labour of love over the past two weeks to try and build a logical argument for Italy to win in Paris in round four of the Six Nations. Well, it's going to happen one day, and Italy must have been uplifted by their victory over Scotland, and in Gonzalo Garcia, Andrea Masi, Alessandro Zanni and Leonardo Ghiraldini they have a cluster of the most consistent players in the championship.
But, let's face it, the great moment is not going to happen this weekend. France may have left the revelation of their own, Mathieu Bastareaud, on the bench, following a week of hobbling on a tender calf, but they are hardly rendered feeble by the inclusion of David Marty in the centre, or by the experiment of giving a first start to Marc Andreu on the wing. We can talk until we are red in the bank about salary caps and relative strengths across Europe, but France at the moment have an enormous pool of players who seem good enough to fill every place to be had in Marc Lièvremont's 2011 World Cup squad.
There may a question mark over François Trinh-Duc or Lionel Beauxis or Frédéric Michalak (now crocked for the rest of the season) when it comes to steering the team through a World Cup campaign, for none of them is Dan Carter, but for the moment France are serene. And that's an important word for them, synonymous with consistency and patience. There may be a doubt about 10 for 2011, but they are happily on course for a grand slam run of five in 2010.
If it is possible to see a pattern to France-Italy I think it will be France purring to a winning margin by half-time, and Italy nobly, if not adventurously, edging the second half. It's happened before: France are too good to lose; Italy are too determined to lose badly.
There are very few grounds to support a Welsh victory in Dublin, what with Ireland on course for the Triple Crown and Wales generous to the point of lavishness itself in the way they start their games. Ireland have not exactly been awash with possession this year, but have taken just about every chance, their away day in Paris excluded, that has been offered to them. Wales give and Ireland take.
On the other hand, is there much more to come from Ireland, even on the day when Brian O'Driscoll, the master himself, reaches 100 caps? It is inconceivable that the great man will be anything but inspired on his special day. And yet, Tommy Bowe now poses a greater threat in attack, a 14 on the end of diagonal kicks, than that old outside glide from Ireland's 13.
There's always the possibility of a Munster trundle up front from a lineout, and a little jig from either Geordan Murphy or Gordon D'Arcy, but in terms of attacking potential, Wales outstrip Ireland by a considerable margin. It's just about finding the right moment to release the potential.
In that regard, James Hook is the player on whom the game will hinge. One on one, he is more elusive than D'Arcy, but give him an equation, with various possible outcomes, and his maths can be wobbly. Stephen Jones could scarcely do more to preach common sense inside Hook, but now it is time for Jamie Roberts to replace all the little inaccuracies in his last outing with a thumping display of forthright simplicity.
The contrast between Roberts and Hook needs to be emphasised not disguised. The big 12 has not had enough of the ball; while Hook has had too much. Roberts propels Wales forward, and Hook then sets up the finish. There's no point any more in protecting Roberts from tacklers. He's a wrecking ball. Hitting things in his way is what he does.
Wales have done their best to unhinge their nation at both ends of the emotional spectrum. Agony and ecstasy is becoming a bipolar cliché. Perhaps it is time for Roberts and Hook to fill a little of the middle ground. Against all sense, I'm going for a Welsh win, achieved without fuss or hysteria.
Those will remain, for the purposes of this argument, the preserve of Murrayfield. I just love the prospect of Andy Robinson and Martin Johnson, simmering and fuming volcanically with all the frustration that went and still goes with the coaching of England, standing toe to toe in Edinburgh.
I see they are a bit worried about Robinson, a proud Englishman and all that, being party in the home changing room to some of the more inflammatory sentiments that accompany Scotland's approach to the Calcutta Cup match. If you want anti-English sentiment I recommend the Scots give Robinson the floor and tell him to recount the tale of his time at Twickenham.
That leaves the game on the field. Since England are slightly more mechanical than mercurial in attack, it may be a day for a fierce Scottish defence to hold out. They eventually ran out of players and steam in Cardiff and had problems on the front foot in Rome. But this could be ready-made for one of those legendary performances when backs are pressed to the wall so tightly that the bricks form a tartan pattern.
If there were bonus points in the Six Nations I don't suppose there would be a sniff of a supplementary for tries at Murrayfield. And I wouldn't want to be the one delegated to ask either Robinson or Johnson if he were happy with the extra point for losing narrowly.
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