Four weeks today the remaining pieces of the puzzle will finally fall into place. As Ian McGeechan often stresses it is the last half-dozen selections that can make or break a Lions tour and lend the enterprise its particular flavour. The success of the 2009 British and Irish Lions expedition to South Africa will not be determined solely by the delicate judgments facing McGeechan but the importance of picking the right men for the job cannot be overestimated.
If anyone has an innate feel for sifting and measuring touring sides, it is McGeechan, architect of the 1997 series win over the Springboks and also part of the victorious 1974 squad as a player. John Bentley, Will Greenwood, Alan Tait, Paul Wallace and Tom Smith did not feature prominently in pre-tour forecasts 12 years ago but all of them played a substantial role. "I wanted decision-makers, players who would not be afraid to play as they saw it," explained McGeechan after the series had been won. "This meant strong individuals, ones who would be tough and uncompromising and never troubled by thoughts of failure. We had to have people who had no fear of trying things because, if you never try, you will never succeed."
It worked perfectly as a manifesto under Martin Johnson's leadership and it is easy to envisage the mighty Geech opting for something similar again. If nothing else, Ireland's rousing grand slam triumph showed how far resilience and determination can still get you, with Paul O'Connell and Brian O'Driscoll merely the highest-profile examples. The Lions will be up against a seriously big, strong and quick Springbok back five but if they can bring the hosts to a juddering halt on the gainline it could get very interesting indeed.
The Lions, in other words, must look to compete with the Boks where they are strongest, namely the lineout, the back-row and the midfield, and identify players with the mental and physical ability to cope. In that regard last Saturday's contest in Cardiff was a perfect final trial which Alun-Wyn Jones, among others, passed with flying colours. A Test pack with O'Connell and Jones at its core and a posse of hard-tackling back-rows – David Wallace, Joe Worsley, Stephen Ferris – would scarcely qualify as no-hopers.
A six-week tour also demands the Lions come together instantly, which necessitates one or two relatively left-field selections. With Shaun Edwards, Warren Gatland, Rob Howley and McGeechan in harness, the Wasps blueprint of direct ball-carrying, blitz defence and high-tempo aggression will probably be the Lions gameplan. For that reason Worsley, Simon Shaw, Phil Vickery and Riki Flutey stand a better-than-average chance, as do several of the Welsh midfielders. Shaw may be 35 but has advised McGeechan he is desperate to make the trip. Even if he makes only the midweek team, he will fit in seamlessly for all the varied talents of Steve Borthwick, Nathan Hines, Ian Gough and Nick Kennedy.
The need for an aerial threat is equally good news for Tom Croft, with James Haskell's decision to leave Wasps scarcely improving his chances of touring under McGeechan, Edwards and Co. Anyone who saw Ross Ford's spectacular long throw extricate Scotland from problems on their own line at Twickenham would be happy to see the Edinburgh man go as one of three hookers and Lee Mears has also enjoyed a consistent season. It boils down to whether Gatland prefers a steady-Eddie thrower or seeks to stir the Boks up a bit, in which case Dylan Hartley or Matthew Rees could yet sneak into the reckoning.
As for the backs, balance is all. Two bigger wings and two smaller artful dodgers would be good but Paul Sackey has picked a bad time to lose form. The fast, powerful Ugo Monye, in contrast, has been outstanding and his all-round game has improved substantially. Harlequins's Heineken Cup quarter-final against Leinster will represent a final trial for the richly talented Luke Fitzgerald and Jamie Heaslip, while Jonny Wilkinson's return date will also be closely monitored. If fit, he will surely travel; if not, James Hook or Toby Flood is the next in line with Danny Cipriani currently out of sorts.
Ben Foden is another possible joker but the Lions are well-blessed for full-backs, particularly if Delon Armitage goes as a utility back. Either way the nationality split will be less skewed this time. England have filled around half the berths on the past three tours; in South Africa it will be around 30% with Ireland and Wales taking up the slack. The captaincy? It is suddenly hard to look past O'Driscoll, with O'Connell as his pack leader. Unless, of course, McGeechan has another cunning plan.
Kitson's choices
Full-backs Lee Byrne (Wales), Rob Kearney (Ireland), Delon Armitage (England). Wings Tommy Bowe (Ireland), Shane Williams (Wales), Ugo Monye (England), Luke Fitzgerald (Ireland). Centres Riki Flutey (England), Gavin Henson (Wales), Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland), Jamie Roberts (Wales). Fly-halves Stephen Jones (Wales), Ronan O'Gara (Ireland), Jonny Wilkinson (England). Scrum-halves Mike Phillips (Wales), Mike Blair (Scotland), Tomas O'Leary (Ireland). Props Gethin Jenkins (Wales), Andrew Sheridan (England), Adam Jones (Wales), Euan Murray (Scotland), Phil Vickery (England). Hookers Jerry Flannery (Ireland), Ross Ford (Scotland), Lee Mears (England). Locks Alun-Wyn Jones (Wales), Donncha O'Callaghan (Ireland), Paul O'Connell (Ireland), Simon Shaw (England). Flankers Tom Croft (England), Stephen Ferris (Ireland), David Wallace (Ireland), Martyn Williams (Wales), Joe Worsley (England). No8s Jamie Heaslip (Ireland), Ryan Jones (Wales).
First Test XV
L Byrne (Wales); T Bowe (Ireland), B O'Driscoll (Ireland, capt), Jamie Roberts (Wales), S Williams (Wales); S Jones (Wales), M Phillips (Wales); G Jenkins (Wales), R Ford (Scotland), E Murray (Scotland), P O'Connell (Ireland), A-W Jones (Wales), S Ferris (Ireland), D Wallace (Ireland), J Heaslip (Ireland). Replacements J Flannery (Ireland), P Vickery (England), T Croft (England), M Williams (Wales), M Blair (Scotland), J Wilkinson (England), R Kearney (Ireland)
