If you want to get a handle on how important Sunday’s clash between Wales and Australia in Lyon actually is, then the view of double World Cup winner Tim Horan puts it in clear perspective. While Eddie Jones will be hoping his Wallabies team can summon the “Digger Spirit” to save their campaign, Horan believes it is “the biggest match for Australia since the game went pro”.

That’s quite some statement given the game first went “open” in 1995 and Horan won his second World Cup title in Cardiff in 1999. The Wallabies were in the 2003 final on home soil in Sydney. But while those two matches were bids for the ultimate prize, the 80 minutes in Lyon will be all about saving face.

Australia will host the next World Cup in 2027 and the thought of limping into that tournament after failing to reach the knockout stage for the first time in France is haunting many Wallabies fans. The reality is that if Jones’s side falls for the second weekend in a row in Pool C, they will be more or less out of the running for a top-two finish. If the 22-15 loss to Fiji, their first to them in 69 years, put them on the ropes, then a Wales victory could be a knockout blow for both the team and their coach.

Jones signed a five-year deal worth an estimated A$4.5m (£2.4m) in January but admits he could be out of a job if the Wallabies do not make it to the quarter-final stage. Two sackings in the space of 10 months after his England departure in December would be a chastening experience even for someone with an ego of Jones’s size.

When he took over from Dave Rennie at the start of the year, he was supposed to guide the Wallabies through this tournament, on to the British & Irish Lions tour in 2025 and then into a shot at winning the Webb Ellis Cup on home soil in 2027. Fat chance if his side become the first Australian team to lose two pool matches at a World Cup and they fail to make the last eight.

For Warren Gatland and Wales, there is a chance to hammer a further nail or two into the Australian coffin by repeating their heroics of four years ago in Japan when they won 29-25 to top their pool with a 100% record. One of the heroes of that day in Tokyo was the backrower Aaron Wainwright.

“I’m very excited to be playing the Wallabies again. To get the win against them at the last World Cup was a massive boost for us and helped us to progress in the competition,” says Wainwright, who will form an important back row with skipper Jac Morgan and Taulupe Faletau. “We want to do the same again in Lyon. We know they are going to be hurting after the defeat to Fiji, but we want to go at them at the set piece because we feel we can get some gains there.”

With their opponents being without the gigantic presence of skipper Will Skelton and tighthead prop Taniela Tupou, Wales feel they can do well at scrum time. Gatland has even brought in the former England tighthead Henry Thomas on to the replacements bench to add more scrummaging power for later in the game.

Taine Basham has taken over from the injured Tommy Reffell among the replacements and Gareth Anscombe’s experience has won him a place ahead of Sam Costelow. Otherwise, the team is the same as the one that withstood the Fijian onslaught.

“We felt the team against Fiji did exactly what we had prepared them to do for the first 65 minutes. I don’t think we got the credit we deserved from that win,” says Gatland. “That game had the highest ball-in-play time of the tournament, and we controlled the game for long periods. We’ve got to build on that. Our accuracy was good against Fiji, but it wasn’t where we wanted it against Portugal. We know we are a hard team to beat, and we need to take our chances against Australia and put them under as much pressure as possible.”

The other factor that will be key is discipline. Wales conceded 17 penalties, picked up a yellow card and had to make a tournament record 253 tackles to get home 32-26 against Fiji. Significantly, they picked up 11 turnovers to Fiji’s four. Australia gave away 18 penalties and suffered 11 turnovers by the Fijians to a mere four of their own when they met last weekend. Both teams will need to change some bad habits to succeed.